Pantheon Publications

2 July 2025 Global Monitor Soft June payrolls incoming

• US - Expect soft June payrolls, and yet another set of downward revisions
• EUROZONE - June’s EZ inflation rise will more than reverse in July and August
• UK - Payroll data have gone haywire; job growth is likely improving
• CHINA+ - BoJ to sit tight as stagflation risk rears its ugly head
• EM ASIA - Hoping we’re not jinxing it…we rescind our call for SBV cuts in 2025
• LATAM - Banxico signals slower data-driven easing, as inflation risks persist

Global Datanote: Industrial Production, India, May

• In one line: Consumer-facing industries are buckling.

Global Datanote: Official manufacturing PMI, China, June

In one line: Manufacturing activity index rises thanks to eased tariff tensions and domestic policy support

Global Datanote: Banxico Announcement, Mexico, June, 2025

• In one line: Banxico cuts again, but rising inflation and a split Board signal a slower, more cautious easing cycle ahead.

Global Datanote: Tokyo CPI, Japan, June

In one line: Tokyo inflation cools, thanks to restart of energy subsidies

Global Datanote: Bank of Thailand Decision

• In one line: Pausing, for now.

25 June 2025 Global Monitor Japan's firms offsetting tariff hit to trade with price cuts

• US - Consumption looks vulnerable to the looming real-income shock
• EUROZONE - SNB shies away from negative rates for now; EZ PMI holds steady
• UK - Week in review: an August cut to Bank Rate looking more likely
• CHINA+ - Japanese auto exports bear the brunt of US tariff hikes
• EM ASIA - BSP, rightly unfazed by oil prices, leaves door open to two more cuts
• LATAM - COPOM surprises with a final hike and signals a prolonged pause

Global Datanote: Economic activity index and retail sales, Mexico, April, 2025

• In one line: Solid start to Q2, but consumption faces headwinds.

Global Datanote: Flash PMIs, Eurozone, June 2025

In one line: Holding steady.

Global Datanote: Flash PMIs, Germany, June 2025

In one line: Are we too downbeat on Germany?

Global Datanote: Flash PMIs, France, June 2025

In one line: Stuck in the mud, but also underestimating growth.

Global Datanote: Preliminary GDP, Japan, Q1

In one line: Japan’s GDP shrinks for the first time in a year, reinforcing the BoJ's wait-and-see stance.

Global Datanote: National CPI, Japan, May

In one line: Japan's core inflation surprised on the upside, but unlikely to sway BoJ into hiking mode

Global Datanote: Loan Prime Rates, China, June

In one line: BoJ slowed tapering pace for next fiscal year but stood pat on policy rates in June

Global Datanote: BoJ Decision, Japan, June

In one line: BoJ slowed tapering pace for next fiscal year but stood pat on policy rates in June

Global Datanote: SNB Rate Decision, Q2 2025

In one line: We were wrong; SNB opts for another small cut.

Global Datanote: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Decision

• In one line: Rightly unfazed, for now, by the upswing in oil prices.

Global Datanote: Monetary policy meeting, Brazil, June, 2025

• In one line: COPOM surprises with a 25bp hike but signals a pause.

Global Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, May 2025

In one line: A September cut is still on, but the ECB will end up regretting it. 

Global Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision

• In one line: Sticking to the gradualist approach, for now.