Pantheon Publications

Global Datanote: Trade, Indonesia, June 2025

In one line: Export growth is in for a weaker H2.

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, ASEAN, July

• In one line: Early US trade deals in July help ASEAN manufacturing find its feet, for now.

Global Datanote: Caixin Manufacturing PMI, China, July

In one line: China’s manufacturing sector rocked by trade uncertainty

Global Datanote: Monetary policy meeting, Brazil, July, 2025

• In one line: On hold, signalling caution amid heightened uncertainty.

Global Datanote: Advance GDP, US, Q2 2025

• In one line: Underlying growth has slowed sharply since late 2024.

Global Datanote: Advance GDP, Mexico, Q2

• In one line: Solid momentum but headwinds lingering.

Global Datanote: Politburo, China, Q2

In one line: China's Q2 Politburo meeting downplays trade risks, focuses on domestic issues like price wars

30 July 2025 Global Monitor EU-US trade deal is good economics, but at a political cost

• US - The slide in the dollar looks like all pain and no gain
• EUROZONE - White smoke in Scotland: the EU and US strike a trade deal
• UK - Payroll falls should ease as tax hike drag begins to fade
• CHINA+ - BoJ official hints at brightening growth outlook after trade deal
• EM ASIA - Taiwan’s retail sales shrink in Q2; downside risk to our 6.4% GDP call
• LATAM - Brazil’s inflation plateaus as demand softens and disinflation forces build

Global Datanote: Industrial Production, India, June

• In one line: A ten-month low, as consumer sectors continue to broadly weaken.

Global Datanote: ECB Press Conference, July 2025

In one line: September cut less certain?

Global Datanote: ECB Rate decision, July 2025

In one line: Still on track for a final rate cut in September.

Global Datanote: INSEE Business Confidence, & Flash PMIs, France, July 2025

In one line: Not much to see; near-term downside risks persist.

Global Datanote: Flash PMIs, EZ, July 2025

In one line: Nothing in here to suggest an ECB rate cut today.

Global Datanote: Flash PMIs, Germany, July 2025

In one line: The German economy was barely growing in July.

Global Datanote: Flash manufacturing PMI, Japan, July

In one line: manufacturing index slammed by falling output; July should be low point after US-Japan trade deal

23 July 2025 Global Monitor Solid Q2 GDP growth masks intensifying deflation in China

• US - Tariff-related price hikes hit in June, with worse to come in July
• EUROZONE - ECB to stand pat this week; big decision awaits in September
• UK - Most of June’s CPI inflation rise was genuine
• CHINA+ - China’s steady real GDP print masks intensifying deflation
• EM ASIA - Malaysian GDP growth rises slightly, but the fundamentals are worrying
• LATAM - Strong start to 2025 for Brazil and Colombia masks challenges ahead

Global Datanote: Economic activity index and retail sales, Mexico, May, 2025

• In one line: Mexico’s growth holding up in Q2, but headwinds are mounting.

Global Datanote: CPI, Japan, June

In one line: Japan's headline consumer inflation slows after energy subsidies restart; upper house election poses JGB risks

Global Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, June 2025

In one line: Still on track to hand the ECB a 25bp rate cut in September. 

Global Datanote: Exports, China, June 2025

In one line: Better external sector performance likely to support Q2 GDP due tomorrow