- In one line: Disinflation resumes, and the near-term outlook remains benign.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: COPOM slows pace; signals prolonged hold on rates.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- US - Uncertainty over tariffs hasn’t killed jobs yet, but their imposition will hurt
- EUROZONE - Soft headline inflation will pave the way for a 1.75% depo-rate by July
- UK - MPC preview: all about the likely new downside scenario
- CHINA+ - US and China edge closer to trade talks after back-channel signals
- EM ASIA - Taiwan’s GDP gets a boost from “Liberation Day” tariff chaos
- LATAM - Mexico narrowly escapes recession, but the outlook is far from rosy
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: Q1 ends on a strong note, but growth set to slow.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
In one line: Inflation held steady, but declines are coming; we are adding a July ECB rate cut.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: Electricity discounts are now well and truly a thing of the past.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Surprise rate cut signals cautious support for the recovery.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Tariffs distort the numbers, but underlying growth was already slowing in Q1
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)Global
- In one line: Agricultural rebound masks broad-based weakness.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Compelled by the US’ tariff war, and allowed for by a resumption of sub-1% inflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: The BCCh holds fire, as global risks intensify.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- US - Payroll growth is unlikely to have slowed decisively as soon as April
- EUROZONE - PMIs sink as domestic demand falters; EZ–US trade surplus jumps
- UK - Wages stay strong and inflation heading to 3.5% in April
- CHINA+ - Chinese policymakers keep heads down, focusing on domestic issues
- EM ASIA - Easter rewind: the start of tougher times for Indonesian exports
- LATAM - Persistent inflation pressures in Brazil challenge COPOM’s roadmap
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: Capping off an unremarkable Q1.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
In one line: Trade wars are not good for firm morale.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: As in France, domestic demand is rattled by tariff concerns and PMI shows clear signs of tariff front-running.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Fastest fall in demand for services since Covid pulls down the headline.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- US - Few alarms yet in high-frequency data; business surveys weaker
- EUROZONE - A dovish, but also conditional, pivot from the ECB
- UK - Wages stay strong and inflation heading to 3.5% in April
- CHINA+ - China’s strategic pivot to ASEAN in the face of tariff pressures
- EM ASIA service is on holiday this week; returning next week
- LATAM - Mexico’s industrial rebound masks structural weakness and policy risks
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Falling oil prices and a stronger euro are gifts to ECB doves.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- US - Stagnation still lies ahead, as the trade war narrows, but deepens
- EUROZONE - The ECB will cut by 25bp this week but offer little guidance
- UK - Week in review: GDP jumps in February but tariffs will hurt growth
- CHINA+ - Beyond tit-for-tat tariffs: what Xi’s China is really fighting for
- EM ASIA - ‘Factory Asia’—ex-China—won’t break, even if April 9 tariffs return
- LATAM - Brazil battles inflation as activity surprises and fiscal risks linger
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
