Pantheon Publications

6 August 2025 Global Monitor July payrolls open the door for Fed easing in September

• US - Dire July employment report makes a September easing far more likely
• EUROZONE - Our ECB and SNB rate cut calls now hang in the balance
• UK - Payroll falls should ease as tax hike drag begins to fade
• CHINA+ - China’s Politburo strikes confident tone about trade risks
• EM ASIA - Taiwan’s retail sales shrink in Q2; downside risk to our 6.4% GDP call
• LATAM - Brazil holds rates steady as tariffs cloud growth and inflation outlook

Global Datanote: PMI, Switzerland, July 2025

In one line: Ugly all round.  

Global Datanote: Inflation, Switzerland, July 2025

In one line: Above consensus; September cut hangs in the balance. 

Global Datanote: ISM Manufacturing Survey, US, July, 2025

• In one line: A further climb in goods inflation is still in the pipeline. 

Global Datanote: Employment, US, July, 2025

• In one line: Revisions reveal a sharp slowdown; September easing incoming.

Global Datanote: Economic activity index, Chile, June, 2025

• In one line: Mining volatility drags on Q2, but growth outlook holds firm.

Global Datanote: Advance Inflation, Eurozone, July 2025

In one line: A blow for ECB doves and September rate cut hopes. 

Global Datanote: CPI, Indonesia, July 2025

• In one line: Discount the base effects lifting food inflation; the headline should now stabilise.

Global Datanote: Trade, Indonesia, June 2025

In one line: Export growth is in for a weaker H2.

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, ASEAN, July

• In one line: Early US trade deals in July help ASEAN manufacturing find its feet, for now.

Global Datanote: Caixin Manufacturing PMI, China, July

In one line: China’s manufacturing sector rocked by trade uncertainty

Global Datanote: Monetary policy meeting, Brazil, July, 2025

• In one line: On hold, signalling caution amid heightened uncertainty.

Global Datanote: Advance GDP, US, Q2 2025

• In one line: Underlying growth has slowed sharply since late 2024.

Global Datanote: Advance GDP, Mexico, Q2

• In one line: Solid momentum but headwinds lingering.

Global Datanote: Politburo, China, Q2

In one line: China's Q2 Politburo meeting downplays trade risks, focuses on domestic issues like price wars

30 July 2025 Global Monitor EU-US trade deal is good economics, but at a political cost

• US - The slide in the dollar looks like all pain and no gain
• EUROZONE - White smoke in Scotland: the EU and US strike a trade deal
• UK - Payroll falls should ease as tax hike drag begins to fade
• CHINA+ - BoJ official hints at brightening growth outlook after trade deal
• EM ASIA - Taiwan’s retail sales shrink in Q2; downside risk to our 6.4% GDP call
• LATAM - Brazil’s inflation plateaus as demand softens and disinflation forces build

Global Datanote: Industrial Production, India, June

• In one line: A ten-month low, as consumer sectors continue to broadly weaken.

Global Datanote: ECB Press Conference, July 2025

In one line: September cut less certain?

Global Datanote: ECB Rate decision, July 2025

In one line: Still on track for a final rate cut in September.

Global Datanote: INSEE Business Confidence, & Flash PMIs, France, July 2025

In one line: Not much to see; near-term downside risks persist.