An unexpectedly weak start to Q4 for Indonesian retail sales
The bad—and good—aspects of the Philippines’ widening trade deficit
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A halfway-house approach in response to the grim Q3 GDP.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
The RBI takes a halfway-house approach in response to the grim Q3 GDP
Philippine sales fall to their lowest level in over a year
High base from last year’s healthcare price rises pulls Vietnamese inflation down in November
Vietnamese sales growth remains sluggish, in reality
Ignore the headline trade misses, the real story is that Vietnamese export momentum is waning, rapidly
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The Philippines’ consensus-matching CPI print for November sets the stage nicely for a third rate cut.
- Food disinflation led to the downside CPI surprise in Thailand last month, but expect no December cut.
- Taiwan’s Q3 GDP grow th fell to 4.2%, from 4.9% in Q2; blame consumption, stocks and net exports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A market-matching CPI reading to set up another BSP cut
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The RBI held the repo rate on Friday in a closer four-to-two vote, but surprised with a 50bp CRR cut…
- … A lot can change before the February repo cut we expect ; a new, dovish governor and lower food CPI.
- Vietnam’s November trade headlines missed badly, but the real story is underlying weakness in exports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Continued food disinflation in Thailand mutes the headline’s November uptick
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The manufacturing PMI for ASEAN ticked up to 50.8 in November, but its downtrend remains intact.
- More softness is in store heading into 2025; activity is uneven, and forward-looking gauges are falling.
- Indonesian inflation fell further in November to a 40-month low, opening the door more to rate cuts.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Moving closer to the lower bound of BI’s target range; S/T stability coming.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: A narrow and likely short-lived uptick.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
A narrow and likely short-lived uptick in ASEAN’s PMI for November
Inflation moves closer to the lower bound of BI’s target range; S/T stability coming
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A modest acceleration, and one that was flattered by Diwali calendar effects.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: The boost from ‘other’ sales fades, again; no noticeable immediate lift from the first cash-handout.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Retail sales in Taiwan unexpectedly fell by 0.5% year-over-year in October…
- …The Ministry of Economic Affairs attributes this to Typhoon Kong-rey; we see more to the story.
- We are optimistic that sales will bounce back inNovember, as one-off headwinds reverse.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
EM ASIA IS PARTICULARLY EXPOSED TO ‘TRUMP 2.0’
- …INDONESIA AND THE PHILIPPINES DISAPPOINT IN Q3
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
