- Our final forecast sees GDP growth in Vietnam cooling to 6.5% in Q4, from 7.4% in Q3…
- …The moderation should be broad-based, though quirky residual seasonal effects pose upside risks.
- Household spending is still struggling; the recent pop in car sales is a policy-induced head-fake.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s deficit blow-out in November was down mainly to gold imports, which are just normalising…
- …Safe-haven demand for gold isn’t relevant now, and the current account gap is still manageable.
- The CBC’s ongoing pause remains justified; anxieties over the property market will continue.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: 75bp down; 100bp more—at minimum—in 2025.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: 75bp down; 100bp more—at minimum—in 2025.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BSP lowered the target reverse repo rate for a third straight meeting, by 25bp to 5.75%…
- …While maintaining its goal of “less restrictive” policy, despite expecting higher inflation next year.
- We expect average inflation to fall further in 2025, opening the door wide to 100bp more cuts.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Bank Indonesia and the Bank of Thailand stood pat on rates yesterday, in line with market expectations.
- BI’s anxiety over the IDR is probably a red herring, and fiscal policy is in no position to provide support.
- Pay more heed to the BoT’s increasingly worried tone, not its still-rosy GDP forecasts for 2025.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
INDIA’S SLUMP HAS BEEN LONG IN THE MAKING
- …A SOFT END TO THE YEAR FOR ASEAN MANUFACTURING
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: An anti-climactic end to the year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: A pause that will probably hold for the first few meetings in 2025.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: A pause that will probably hold for the first few meetings in 2025.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s flash PMIs for December— especially services—were punchy, but the slowdown isn’t over.
- We’re still waiting for other metrics to confirm the supposed strength in hiring indicated by the PMIs.
- The sudden leap in Indonesia’s trade surplus in November is hardly wor th celebrating; imports fell.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Another leap in gold imports drags the deficit to a fresh low.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A not-so-welcome leap in the trade surplus.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
A solid end to 2024 for India’s PMIs, but let’s wait for the final numbers
WPI food inflation in India has finally turned a corner
A not-so-welcome leap in Indonesia's trade surplus for November
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indian inflation is back in the RBI’s range thanks to cooler food CPI; expect more of the latter in 2025…
- …But the consensus for next year is too benign, especially with core CPI set to normalise constantly.
- The further rise in IP growth in October is only a small reprieve; underlying momentum is still weak.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: No major surprises; red carpet being relaid for rate cuts.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: No major surprises; red carpet being relaid for rate cuts.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwan’s exports beat expectations in November, but the underlying story is more complex.
- Demand from the US continues to slip, but monthly trends appear to be stabilising at the very least.
- Inflation in November was hot, but most of this was likely due to a weather-related bump in food price
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The Q3 bounce in Indonesian retail sales growth is over, with consumer confidence still fading…
- …Weak sentiment is a bigger long-run worry than the coming VAT hike, especially with inflation so low.
- The ballooning of the Philippines’ trade deficit reflects in large part renewed misery for exports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
