Pantheon Publications

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 1 October 2025

The RBI’s pause continues, but further easing is still very much on the table
A sturdy—but narrow—end-Q3 bump in ASEAN manufacturing
Ignore the August jump in Indonesia's surplus; import demand is crashing
Food inflation is firming up fast in Indonesia, but core disinflation is a strong anchor

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, July

• In one line: A collapse long in the making; still some way to go before growth falls back down to earth.

2 October 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Still a matter of when, not if, the RBI will cut again; we look for December

• The RBI stayed on hold yesterday, but two members called for more dovish implied forward guidance…
• …Its latest GDP forecasts reveal no real faith in the stimulative impact of GST 2.0; we concur.
• Bank on ASEAN’s robust September PMI at your own risk, as underlying it is a very skewed picture.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 30 September 2025

Real import demand in the Philippines has had a bleak Q3, so far

1 October 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor India's IP Q3-to-date: more robust than Q2, but with a few caveats

• Ignore the miss in Indian IP in August; the recent stasis is breaking, and the fixed capex signal is solid.
• Retail sales growth in Thailand crashed back down to earth in July, but expect much more softness…
• …Consumption growth is seeing some stability alongside tourist arrivals; local demand is still weak.

Global Datanote: Industrial Production, India, August

• In one line: A consumer-led dip, but durables growth is probably bottoming-out.

EM Asia Datanote: Industrial Production, India, August

• In one line: A consumer-led dip, but durables growth is probably bottoming-out.

25 September 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Thai front-running to the US is over, only pain and downside risks ahead

• Thai customs export growth missed expectations in August, as the surge in US shipments finally turned.
• Short-term leading indicators point to much more downside ahead, while THB strength will only hurt.
• The one consolation is that the supply-side reaction to falling exports is unlikely to be as painful.

29 September 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor RBI would be foolish to hold; Indonesia's 2026 budget set to fail

• The RBI’s meeting on Wednesday is ‘live’, and we’re with the minority for a fresh 25bp rate cut.
• Indonesia’s final 2026 budget—that is, Mr. Purbaya’s first—reveals his less hawkish hand…
• …We’re more convinced now that the deficit will hit the 3%-of-GDP limit in 2026, given the rosy targets.

September 2025- Emerging Asia Chartbook

IGNORE INDIA’S ‘HOT’ Q2 GDP; Q3 SHAPING UP TO BE
MUCH MORE SOLID

• …FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICY IN INDONESIA IS IN FLUX

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 24 September 2025

Thai front-running to the US is now reversing

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 23 September 2025

A soft-ish end to Q3, but Indian momentum is still largely improving

24 September 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor India's lukewarm September PMIs amid huge offsetting events

• India’s flash PMIs only stumbled in September; no big tariff hit or boost from goods and service tax…
• …The complete numbers for Q3 point to GDP growth of 7.4%, posing upside risks to our 7.0% call.
• Malaysian inflation ticked up in August; we see increased upward risks for the rest of the year.

EM Asia Datanote: Core IP, India, August

• In one line: Driven almost exclusively by a V-shaped bounce in coal output.

22 September 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor The Philippines' new ICI body; short-term pain for long-term gain

• The Philippines’ new anti-corruption drive in public projects is likely to stymie activity in the short run…
• …But needs must, as governance has been eroding, making Manila an even bigger laggard in the region.
• Malaysia's exports moderated in August, though we are still optimistic, considering the PMI data.

Global Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision, September 2025

• In one line: Third time (un)lucky.

EM Asia Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision, September 2025

• In one line: Third time (un)lucky.

18 September 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Three consecutive surprises from BI and we expect another in October

• Bank Indonesia shocked the consensus—yet again—with a third straight 25bp BI rate cut.
• Indian export growth barely moved in August, masking a bigger nosedive in shipments to the US.
• Talks with Washington have resumed amid a drop in India’s oil imports; lower tariffs in Q4 still possible.

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, India, August

• In one line: Distorted by technicalities; real import demand remains healthy-ish.

16 September 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Slump in Indian CPI isn't quite over; sub-1% prints by October are likely

• The August bounce in India's inflation should prove short-lived; high food base effects will return…
• …The upward mean-reversion in core CPI is starting to see more cracks and waning momentum.
• We have cut our full-year average forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.3% and 4.2%, respectively.