Pantheon Publications

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 3 June 2026

Still no signs of fragility in the bullet train that is Vietnamese trade
Real sales growth continues to track softer in Q2
Small inflation uptick, but still uncomfortably above the SBV's ceiling

4 June 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor War noise unlikely to stop Vietnam's exports from flying higher in Q3

• The underlying strength in Vietnamese exports looks set to persist into the third quarter, at least…
• …But the monthly data at large suggest strongly that GDP growth, in reality, will likely cool in Q2.
• The fuel-price U-turn has yet to show in CPI; we’ve cut our 2026 call to 4.9% but raised 2027 to 3.6%.

Global Datanote: Trade, Indonesia, April 2026

• In one line: Commodity-price boost to two-way trade is finally here.

Global Datanote: CPI, Indonesia, May 2026

• In one line: Food drives the initial bounce-back.

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, ASEAN, May 2026

• In one line: Manufacturing is finally starting to stabilise.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 2 June 2026

ASEAN manufacturing is finally starting to stabilise
Food drives the initial bounce-back in Indonesian inflation
Commodity-price boost to Indonesian two-way trade is finally here

3 June 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Ignore Indonesia's small April surplus; IDR support is finally here

• Indonesia’s small April trade surplus was due to seasonals; a C/A surplus in 2026 is now possible…
• …The big improvement in headline export growth was no fluke; the commodity lift will last till year-end.
• We’ve raised our 2026 inflation forecast to 3.4%, but also lowered our 2027 call to 2.7%.

2 June 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Expect India's Q1 GDP to be a letdown, and RBI to stay on hold

• Our final forecast sees India’s Q1 GDP slumping to 6.4%, well short of the 7.2% consensus…
• …We’re with the consensus that the RBI will hold; hawkish views look over-eager with CPI below 6%.
• May CPI for the Philippines and Thailand should come in softer than expected, at 7.5% and 2.3%.

Global Datanote: Industrial Production, India, April 2026

• In one line: A welcome bounce, as war risks continue to recede.

EM Asia Datanote: Industrial Production, India, April 2026

• In one line: A welcome bounce, as war risks continue to recede.

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, March 2026

• In one line: Headline still normalising; April consumption shows war squeeze.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 29 May 2026

Commodity-price surge is piling pressure on the peso

1 June 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Thailand's latest consumer stimulus will reshape--not re-energise--2026

• Thailand’s new co-payment stimulus starts today; we’ve nudged up our 2026 GDP call, to 2.3%…
• …The job market’s revival is a genuine tailwind, though its current form suggests some fragility.
• Philippines’ trade deficit ballooned unexpectedly in April, with commodity prices flattering imports.

May 2026- Emerging Asia Chartbook

BI SHOCKS WITH A 50BP HIKE; Q1 STRENGTH DUBIOUS

• …TAIWAN STILL FLYING, BUT DOWNSIDE RISKS ARE RISING

29 May 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Falling health premiums soothe headline inflation in Singapore

• Singapore’s inflation was a surprise in April, as it held at 1.8%, despite the Middle East oil shock...
• ...Falling health premiums helped to moderate inflation, while transport inflation wasn’t that bad.
• Taiwan’s consumption stayed robust in April, notwithstanding the Middle East crisis.

27 May 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Bad trade news keeps coming for the THB, but oil hit will soon peak

• Thailand’s trade deficit blowout in April was caused to a large extent by a violent swing in seasonals…
• …But the adjusted gap still hit a record low; we’ve cut our 2026 current account forecast to -1.5%.
• The oil-price boost to yearly import growth should peak soon, but exports are losing momentum too.

26 May 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor India health check as Middle East war hits three months

• Indian factories are hurting more from the war, but the worst of the bleeding in exports looks done…
• …Oil products will eventually respond to the price signal; Russian imports are a stop-gap for crude.
• We’ve raised our 2026 CPI call to a still-dovish 3.9% after correcting an error in our food-price tracker.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 21 May 2026

Indian manufacturing still struggling; pop in prices fading

EM Asia Datanote: Core Production, India, April 2026

• In one line: Still losing momentum at the margin.

Global Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision, May 2026

• In one line: Huge—defensive—hike.