Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
- Indonesia’s trade surplus is ballooning again, forcing upgrades to our current account forecasts…
- …But support from US front-loading will soon fade; commodity prices won’t provide much of a cushion.
- Rapidly waning core pressure is the main story behind the soft August CPI; one BI cut still to come.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Still-robust export growth is driving the trade surplus to its highest in years.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
Still-robust export growth is driving Indonesia’s trade surplus to its highest in years
Surprisingly soft CPI numbers all around for August
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s ‘strong’ Q2 GDP, at 7.8%, was in large part down to a big, positive swing from discrepancies.
- The data for Q3 so far point to another 7.0% print, at least; we now see full-year GDP growth at this pace.
- We’ve cut our 2026 GDP growth forecast markedly, to 6.0%, taking into account the likely US tariff hit.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Flattered hugely by discrepancies, but some reassuring details nonetheless.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Ignore the June bounce; consumption is still very much slowing.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Very mixed start to Philippine two-way trade at the start of Q3
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Recovering to a four-month high, with some help from base effects.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Recovering to a four-month high, with some help from base effects.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A less-dovish cut, but expect at least one more before the end of 2025.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: A less-dovish cut, but expect at least one more before the end of 2025.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
BI—RIGHTLY—ISN’T BUYING THE ‘STRONG’ Q2 GDP
- …TAIWAN’S EXPORT OUTPERFORMANCE HAS STAYING POWER
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BSP eased policy further yesterday, by 25bp, cutting the TRR rate to 5.00%, as widely expected…
- …But its rhetoric was much less dovish; Governor Remolona now thinks the rate is in the “sweet spot”.
- We continue to see one more cut, but this is unlikely to come until December, after the Q3 GDP report.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Thai exports beat expectations in July, but US front-running will end soon and we see little else to cheer.
- Singapore’s July’s CPI was soft, but it will take a lot more than this to convince the MAS to ease again.
- Taiwan retail sales fell again in July, as discretionary spending remains under pressure.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
India’s flash PMIs for August shrug off Trump’s 50% tariff threat
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A reassuring and much-needed turn in overall momentum and, especially, in electricity production.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s PMIs continue to shrug off the tariff noise— even the 50% threat—with the August data punchy…
- …Partial Q3 PMIs point to a continuation of near-7% GDP growth, but watch the slump in future output.
- Our final forecast for next week’s Q2 GDP report is 7%, implying only a minor cooling from 7.4% in Q1.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Acting now, while the space to do so comfortably remains available.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Acting now, while the space to do so comfortably remains available.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
