Pantheon Publications

Global Datanote: CPI, India, May 2026

• In one line: Mean-reversion up in food inflation should now start to plateau. 

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, India, May 2026

• In one line: Mean-reversion up in food inflation should now start to plateau. 

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 11 June 2026

War hit to Indonesian retail sales is here, and we've likely not seen the worst of it

12 June 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor BI steps up its defence of the rupiah, which we think is getting a bad rap

• BI shocked with an off-cycle 25bp hike this week, likely removing the need for another one next week.
• Its Fed and C/A views are overly bearish, while the foreign equity rout may be just a one-off adjustment.
• Retail sales growth crashed into the red in April, somewhat unfairly, but the worst is still to come.

9 June 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Will growth hold up strongly enough to give the RBI cover for rate hikes?

• The RBI’s twin worries, over fading growth and rising inflation, point to a continued rate standstill…
• …We’ve upped our 2026 growth call to 7.0%, but the details of the ‘strong’ Q1 GDP aren’t convincing.
• Philippine and Thai CPI surprised to the downside in May, as we predicted; the BSP is still likely to hike.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 3 June 2026

Still no signs of fragility in the bullet train that is Vietnamese trade
Real sales growth continues to track softer in Q2
Small inflation uptick, but still uncomfortably above the SBV's ceiling

4 June 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor War noise unlikely to stop Vietnam's exports from flying higher in Q3

• The underlying strength in Vietnamese exports looks set to persist into the third quarter, at least…
• …But the monthly data at large suggest strongly that GDP growth, in reality, will likely cool in Q2.
• The fuel-price U-turn has yet to show in CPI; we’ve cut our 2026 call to 4.9% but raised 2027 to 3.6%.

Global Datanote: Trade, Indonesia, April 2026

• In one line: Commodity-price boost to two-way trade is finally here.

Global Datanote: CPI, Indonesia, May 2026

• In one line: Food drives the initial bounce-back.

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, ASEAN, May 2026

• In one line: Manufacturing is finally starting to stabilise.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 2 June 2026

ASEAN manufacturing is finally starting to stabilise
Food drives the initial bounce-back in Indonesian inflation
Commodity-price boost to Indonesian two-way trade is finally here

3 June 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Ignore Indonesia's small April surplus; IDR support is finally here

• Indonesia’s small April trade surplus was due to seasonals; a C/A surplus in 2026 is now possible…
• …The big improvement in headline export growth was no fluke; the commodity lift will last till year-end.
• We’ve raised our 2026 inflation forecast to 3.4%, but also lowered our 2027 call to 2.7%.

2 June 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Expect India's Q1 GDP to be a letdown, and RBI to stay on hold

• Our final forecast sees India’s Q1 GDP slumping to 6.4%, well short of the 7.2% consensus…
• …We’re with the consensus that the RBI will hold; hawkish views look over-eager with CPI below 6%.
• May CPI for the Philippines and Thailand should come in softer than expected, at 7.5% and 2.3%.

Global Datanote: Industrial Production, India, April 2026

• In one line: A welcome bounce, as war risks continue to recede.

EM Asia Datanote: Industrial Production, India, April 2026

• In one line: A welcome bounce, as war risks continue to recede.

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, March 2026

• In one line: Headline still normalising; April consumption shows war squeeze.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 29 May 2026

Commodity-price surge is piling pressure on the peso

1 June 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Thailand's latest consumer stimulus will reshape--not re-energise--2026

• Thailand’s new co-payment stimulus starts today; we’ve nudged up our 2026 GDP call, to 2.3%…
• …The job market’s revival is a genuine tailwind, though its current form suggests some fragility.
• Philippines’ trade deficit ballooned unexpectedly in April, with commodity prices flattering imports.

May 2026- Emerging Asia Chartbook

BI SHOCKS WITH A 50BP HIKE; Q1 STRENGTH DUBIOUS

• …TAIWAN STILL FLYING, BUT DOWNSIDE RISKS ARE RISING

29 May 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Falling health premiums soothe headline inflation in Singapore

• Singapore’s inflation was a surprise in April, as it held at 1.8%, despite the Middle East oil shock...
• ...Falling health premiums helped to moderate inflation, while transport inflation wasn’t that bad.
• Taiwan’s consumption stayed robust in April, notwithstanding the Middle East crisis.