Pantheon Publications

Global Datanote: CPI, India, January 2026

• In one line: Holding judgement, for now, as we await more details; but downside risks to 2026 forecast.

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, India, January 2026

• In one line: Holding judgement, for now, as we await more details; but downside risks to 2026 forecast.

12 February 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Malaysian consumption remains static, but could it fall?

• Malaysian retail sales remain static, in terms of seasonally adjusted volumes…
• …We think consumption will continue to support growth, but consumer confidence seems gloomy
• We see warning signs the recovery in Indonesian consumption risks being nipped in the bud.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 10 February 2026

Indonesian retail sales took a—likely temporary—breather at the end of 2025
Price effects flatter Malaysian retail sales growth in December

11 February 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Thai election: political event risk averted, but no cure for economy

• Thailand’s Bhumjaithai party surprised with a clear win, smoothing A nutin’s path to becoming PM…
• …The People’s Party’s loss implies a bigger chance of internal stability and less risk of populist policy.
• We see no reason to change our growth outlook though, as structural headwinds will still dominate.

Global Datanote: Reserve Bank of India Decision, February 2026

• In one line: The likely long pause is here. 

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 February 2026

The RBI’s likely long pause is here
Don’t buy Vietnam’s Tet-distorted January trade headlines
A more than decent start to 2026 for retail sales in Vietnam
Huge healthcare hike in January last year drops out of Vietnamese inflation
Nascent signs of a recovery in Philippine sales

9 February 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor This RBI pause will stick; prepare for a quiet year, barring any shocks

• The RBI pressed pause this month, and we believe it will be at least a year before we see any rate action.
• The 2025 Tet holiday flattered Vietnam’s trade data; exports continue to cool, but a soft landing is likely.
• Philippine sale s data indicate that the economy turned a corner in the middle of the abysmal Q4.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 5 February 2026

Indonesia’s dream of 6% for 2026 could become reality
Thai deflation now looks set to stick around until mid-year
Philippine inflation is back in the BSP’s range; still expecting a February cut

6 February 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Indonesia's 'hot' Q4 GDP print welcome in more ways than one

• Indonesian Q4 GDP growth beat expectations, at 5.4%, and is likely closer to 7.0% in reality…
• …Consumption is the real hero, not investment; we’ve upgraded our 2026 growth forecast to 5.1%.
• The leap in inflation in January was quite deceptive; calm food prices force us to cut our 2026 call.

4 February 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor India's low-key budget a sign of the times, and generally welcome

• India’s 2026/27 budget is the least restrictive we’ve seen in years, seeing a trivial deficit consolidation…
• …to 4.3% of GDP; an achievable target in our view, given the natural capex ceiling and realistic tax goal.
• The start of a new anchor—debt-to-GDP—will mean faster consolidation from 2027/28 though.

Global Datanote: CPI, Indonesia, January 2026

• In one line: A deceptively soft headline.

Global Datanote: Trade, Indonesia, December 2025

• In one line: Two-way trade ends 2025 on a solid note.

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, ASEAN, January 2026

• In one line: Sturdy momentum is holding up.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 2 February 2026

Sturdy manufacturing momentum in ASEAN is holding up
Two-way trade in Indonesia ends 2025 on a solid note
A deceptively soft January headline CPI print in Indonesia

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, November 2025

• In one line: Returning to earth, again; other, more credible data show a decent Q4.

2 February 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Ins-and-outs of Indonesia's equity market collapse; a good entry point?

• Indonesia’s soaring equities sold off sharply last week, threatened with a downgrade to ‘frontier’…
• …Fundamentally, the correction seems harsh, from the standpoint of improving ‘real’ economic activity.
• Thailand’s election at the end of this week still looks set to result in a fragile coalition government.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 29 January 2026

Anti-graft drive drags Philippine growth down to weakest in nearly 15 years

Global Datanote: IP, India, December 2025

• In one line: An unexpected—if narrow—jump to a 26-month high.

EM Asia Datanote: IP, India, December 2025

• In one line: An unexpected—if narrow—jump to a 26-month high.