Pantheon Publications

Global Datanote: Trade, Indonesia, October 2025

• In one line: Export growth finally comes back down to earth; 2027 should be a bit better.

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, ASEAN, November 2025

• In one line: Strengthening to a 38-month high.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 1 December 2025

ASEAN’s PMI strengthens to a 38-month high
Indonesian export growth finally comes back down to earth; 2027 should be a bit better
The turn in rising food inflation in Indonesia is here

EM Asia Datanote: GDP, India, Q3 2025

• In one line: Not worth the paper it’s printed on.

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, September 2025

• In one line: The theatre of the absurd is back.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 28 November 2025

Ignore the Philippines’ misleading y/y trade headlines

November 2025- Emerging Asia Chartbook

THAI AND PHILIPPINE GROWTH SLOWEST SINCE COVID

• TAIWAN IS STILL FLYING, BUT THE TURN IN GDP HAS COME

1 December 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor India's labour codes--alone--are no quick fix to unlock farm dominance

• India finally implemented its new labour codes after five years of dithering, reviving reform momentum…
• …But the structural employment shift from farming will still be held back by huge agricultural support.
• On the surface, the strong and market-beating Q3 GDP is beyond absurd; tread very carefully.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 25 November 2025

Thailand's bigger-than-expected October deficit masks resurgent US exports

26 November 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 21 November 2025

Shaping up to be a very anti-climatic Q4 for India
Malaysia’s recent inflation spike could be over

24 November 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor India's mixed November PMIs don't change the big H2 slowdown story

• India’s PMIs are still broadly losing steam heading into 2026, pointing to ‘just’ 6.4% Q4 GDP growth…
• …The future output indices in both PMIs are tanking, pouring cold water over a mid-2026 recovery.
• Malaysian inflation eased to 1.3% in October after months of rise s; we think food inflation will return.

EM Asia Datanote: Core Industries, India, October 2025

• In one line: Poor; residual Diwali noise is only partly to blame.

Global Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision, November 2025

• In one line: Easing should resume in December, with a final 25bp move.

EM Asia Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision, November 2025

• In one line: Easing should resume in December, with a final 25bp move.

20 November 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor BI to make final cut in December then move on to RRRs in 2026

• BI stood pat yesterday, as widely expected; we see one final cut in December and RRR easing in 2026.
• Singaporean export growth leapt unexpectedly in October, but leading indicators remain very soft.
• Malaysian exports are finally benefiting from the AI boom, as they surged by 15.7% in October.

19 November 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor India's record trade deficit in October mainly an import story

• Surging gold imports are only part of the historic blow-out in India’s trade deficit in October…
• …Real import demand looks to be rocketing too, though INR depreciation should keep this in check.
• Exports weren’t as weak as their headline plunge suggests, but non-US demand is now wobbling.

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, India, October 2025

• In one line: Gold imports are still surging, but real import demand has also gone up a gear.

18 November 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Inventories make Thailand's Q3 GDP look worse than it actually was

• GDP growth in Thailand slumped to a fresh post-Covid low of 1.2% in Q3, due mainly to destocking…
• …A few key details were otherwise solid, including goods exports and a rebound in fixed investment.
• We still see annual GDP growth weakening to 2.0% this year and 1.8% next year.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 17 November 2025

Destocking largely to blame for Thailand's Q3 GDP miss