Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Regional banks are under renewed scrutiny, oil prices have tumbled, and the shutdown is going long...
- ...So markets are starting to see a meaningful chance of a 50bp easing in December.
- But timely data imply the labor market and GDP growth are holding up; 25bp is still more likely.
- Malaysia’s Q3 GDP growth shocked to the upside, powered by a rebound in mining and quarrying...
- ...But weak commodity exports suggest stockpiling or soaring domestic energy demand.
- Electrical and electronics exports are heating up, which could point to a rise in the Q4 GDP print.
- China’s next Five-Year Plan will focus on long-term strategies in high-tech, energy, and national security…
- …As well as adherence to dual circulation, and maybe an industrial plan to succeed ‘Made in China 2025’.
- China’s consumers and producers are still mired in deflation despite recent improvements.
- EZ inflation rose a touch in September, and the core was revised higher, matching our initial forecast.
- Headline and core inflation will dip in October but then rebound, meaning no rate cut in December.
- Markets are eyeing a rate cut in early 2026, but we think the ECB will opt to stay on hold at 2%.
- We now expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate by 25bp in February; previously we expected no change.
- Our rate call change is tactical—five MPC doves seem keen—as sticky inflation requires caution.
- Our hotel price tracker suggests limited impact from the tube strike, but the risk is for a 4.1% inflation print.
In one line: Narrowing further; drag from goods trade on GDP eased in Q3.
- In one line: A modest improvement, but risks remain biased to the downside.
- In one line: A modest improvement, but risks remain biased to the downside.
- Homebase data point to steady employment growth, and WARN data indicate layoffs remain low...
- ...But Indeed job postings are falling at a faster pace, and Empire State hiring intentions have weakened.
- High mortgage rates and consumers’ low confidence imply higher homebuilder optimism won’t last.
- August’s modest IBC-BR rebound masks persistent weakness across Brazil’s key sectors.
- Retail and services show a tentative stabilisation, but tight credit and high rates continue to hurt demand.
- Fiscal transfers offer temporary support, but restrictive policy will keep growth subdued in 2026.
- The ballooning in India’s trade gap in September was due to gold imports, but beware US exports.
- Singapore’s Q3 GDP print surprised to the upside, at 2.9%, but the headline slowdown is far from over…
- …The MAS expects this to be the case too, implying the bar to fresh policy easing is still high.
- GDP rose by 0.1% month-to-month in August, after falling by a downwardly revised 0.1% in July.
- GDP growth will match our call of 0.2% quarter-to-quarter in Q3, below the MPC’s forecast, 0.4%.
- Underlying GDP growth has slowed due to Budget uncertainty but is still close to potential.
- Trade figures indicate a significant dampening effect on EZ goods trade from US trade tariff hikes.
- The data show few signs of trade diversion and/or re-routing from China, but some price cuts.
- The EZ trade surplus will widen further to year-end, and the drag from goods trade on GDP will fade.
- In one line: Blame yet another sudden spike in gold imports, though exports aren’t helping either.
In one line: Down sharply; unsurprising given drop in German output.
In one line: Mostly base effects, the trend remains subdued.
- Spain’s budget negotiations are non-existent; another rollover of the 2023 budget seems likely...
- ...Still, its deficit will shrink out to 2027, and in 2025 be inside the EU’s 3% limit.
- ECB doves point to downside inflation risks, but we still think the Q4 HICP data will move against them.
- The next forecast round from the OBR will likely show the Chancellor’s headroom has become a £25B hole.
- We think the government will target headroom of £20B, requiring £35B in tax hikes and spending cuts.
- Stealth, sin, property and pensions taxes will fill most of the black hole in our view.
- China’s loan growth slowed in September, indicative of weak credit demand, notably among corporates.
- M1 growth surged, but this likely reflects the robust stock market, rather than domestic demand reviving.
- The PBoC is likely to save policy rate cuts to stabilise sentiment if US-China trade frictions worsen severely.
- Brazil — President Lula gains ground amid tensions
- Mexico — Trade, security and stability
- Chile — Conservatives hold ground prior to crucial vote
