Pantheon Publications

10 February 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Taiwan's export growth reaches the highest print since the 1970s

• Taiwan’s exports soared by 69.9% in January, with AI demand still overwhelming supply…
• ...though base effects, Lunar New Year distortion and less front-loading point to cooling ahead.
• AI demand could soften near term, due to lack of data centre readiness and delayed deployment.

10 February 2026 China+ Monitor PM Takaichi's election gamble paid off, but market jitters continue

• Japan’s snap election on Sunday produced a historic two-thirds majority for PM Takaichi’s LDP.
• She is in a strong position to press ahead with the food consumption tax cut, but funding details are awaited.
• On Thursday she called for a stable cut in the debt-to GDP ratio; she’ll likely avoid a Liz Truss moment.

10 February 2026 Eurozone Monitor Is it safe to buy carry in French government bonds?

• The 2026 budget in France aims for a modest improvement in the deficit, to 5.0% of GDP. 
• A slowdown in tax revenue is a key risk for French budget consolidation efforts this year…
• …monthly fiscal revenues were rising briskly as of Q4 25; markets will scrutinise these data closely in 2026. 

10 February 2026 UK Monitor CPI weight changes fractionally raise our inflation forecast

• The ONS updates CPI weights twice a year, in January and February.
• Our forecast of weight changes raises our inflation forecast only fractionally; by 3bp on average in 2026.
• ONS improvements to hotel price measurement will likely reduce seasonal swings in the component.

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, Taiwan, January 2026

• In one line: Export growth surge never seems to stop.

EZ Datanote: Sentix Investor Confidence, Eurozone, February 2026

In one line: Investors think a recovery is finally underway.

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 9 February 2026: Japan's regular pay growth steady

In one line: Japan's regular pay growth steady, as PM Takaichi secures resounding election win

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Spain, December 2025

In one line: Year-end slump in Spanish industrial output.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production & Trade Balance, Germany, December 2025

In one line: Production stung by falling auto output, but still managed a decent Q4. 

Global Datanote: Reserve Bank of India Decision, February 2026

• In one line: The likely long pause is here. 

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 February 2026

The RBI’s likely long pause is here
Don’t buy Vietnam’s Tet-distorted January trade headlines
A more than decent start to 2026 for retail sales in Vietnam
Huge healthcare hike in January last year drops out of Vietnamese inflation
Nascent signs of a recovery in Philippine sales

9 February 2026 US Monitor January CPI likely to undershoot the consensus

• We look for a 0.2% increase in the headline CPI and a 0.3% rise in the core, despite residual seasonality.
• Web-scraped data point to slowing durable goods prices; Winter Storm Fern likely hit clothing prices.
• Increases in prices for streaming services, live events and rent likely were all much smaller than a year ago.

9 February 2026 LatAm Monitor Banxico pauses and eyes easing in Q2; Chile inflation stays in check

• Sticky core inflation and fiscal pressures prompt the first policy pause by Banxico since March 2024.
• Rate cuts will resume once inflation moderates, with credibility guiding policy calibration.
• Chile’s inflation remains well contained, despite seasonal increases across several components.

9 February 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor This RBI pause will stick; prepare for a quiet year, barring any shocks

• The RBI pressed pause this month, and we believe it will be at least a year before we see any rate action.
• The 2025 Tet holiday flattered Vietnam’s trade data; exports continue to cool, but a soft landing is likely.
• Philippine sale s data indicate that the economy turned a corner in the middle of the abysmal Q4.

9 February 2026 China+ Monitor China likely to prioritise medium-term goals in trimming growth target

• China will probably cut its 2026 GDP growth target to 4.5-to-5%, following a flurry of local cuts to targets.
• The message is to prioritise medium-term goals, such as promoting tech sectors, over short-term growth.
• Private capital is flowing into AI, notably robotics, and clean energy at home and abroad.

9 February 2026 Eurozone Monitor German Q4 GDP growth set to be revised lower

• German industrial production slides in December; Q4 GDP growth set to be revised lower.
• Defence spending has long been visible in German manufacturing data; it should accelerate in 2026.
• Spanish industry had a better Q4 than Q3 2025, but it is starting to lose steam.

9 February 2026 UK Monitor Forecast review: A dovish MPC will cut Bank Rate in March

• Surveys support our call for GDP growth to have picked up to 0.4% quarter-to-quarter in Q4.
• A dovish MPC means we have brought forward our forecast for the next cut to March, from April.
• We think this will be the last reduction in this rate cycle, however, as wages are proving sticky.

UK Datanote: UK MPC Decision and Minutes, February 2026

• In one line: Dovish vote and minutes make March close call and signal a desire to cut twice this year at least. 

UK Datanote: Construction PMI, January 2026

• In one line: Construction activity to grind only modestly higher as tailwinds dissipate.

UK Datanote: UK Car Registrations, January 2026

• In one line: Autos registrations will continue to rise slowly over the coming year.