Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
- In one line: Ignore the June bounce; consumption is still very much slowing.
Very mixed start to Philippine two-way trade at the start of Q3
- In one line: Recovering to a four-month high, with some help from base effects.
- In one line: Recovering to a four-month high, with some help from base effects.
- In one line: A less-dovish cut, but expect at least one more before the end of 2025.
- In one line: A less-dovish cut, but expect at least one more before the end of 2025.
BI—RIGHTLY—ISN’T BUYING THE ‘STRONG’ Q2 GDP
- …TAIWAN’S EXPORT OUTPERFORMANCE HAS STAYING POWER
- The BSP eased policy further yesterday, by 25bp, cutting the TRR rate to 5.00%, as widely expected…
- …But its rhetoric was much less dovish; Governor Remolona now thinks the rate is in the “sweet spot”.
- We continue to see one more cut, but this is unlikely to come until December, after the Q3 GDP report.
- Thai exports beat expectations in July, but US front-running will end soon and we see little else to cheer.
- Singapore’s July’s CPI was soft, but it will take a lot more than this to convince the MAS to ease again.
- Taiwan retail sales fell again in July, as discretionary spending remains under pressure.
India’s flash PMIs for August shrug off Trump’s 50% tariff threat
- In one line: A reassuring and much-needed turn in overall momentum and, especially, in electricity production.
- India’s PMIs continue to shrug off the tariff noise— even the 50% threat—with the August data punchy…
- …Partial Q3 PMIs point to a continuation of near-7% GDP growth, but watch the slump in future output.
- Our final forecast for next week’s Q2 GDP report is 7%, implying only a minor cooling from 7.4% in Q1.
- In one line: Acting now, while the space to do so comfortably remains available.
- In one line: Acting now, while the space to do so comfortably remains available.
- Bank Indonesia surprised again this month by lowering the BI rate by a further 25bp to 5.00%…
- …We reiterate our 4.75% end-2025 call; the recent food CPI pop is skin-deep and the core is fading.
- Malaysian exports surprised everyone by expanding in July, after two months of contraction.
- Thai GDP growth in Q2 was largely in line with expectations, cooling to 2.8% from 3.2%…
- …Export front-loading was still a big part of the story, but this lift should now unwind quickly in H2.
- We still see a broad slowdown, but our 2025 and 2026 forecasts now stand at 2.0% and 1.8%.
US tariff themes aplenty in Thailand’s Q2; expect a faster slowdown in H2
- EM Asia's contribution to world growth continues to rise, thanks in no small part to its demographics…
- …Working-age populations won’t peak for another two decades, but chinks in the armour are emerging.
- We expect a further softening in Thai GDP growth in Q2, to 2.7%; look for a much smaller q/q trade lift.
- Taiwan’s exports defied expectations in July, rising 42.0% after June’s already-high 33.7% growth.
- Consensus should have it just right for India’s July CPI; early-August data suggest this was the low.
- This week’s BoT meeting is ‘live’; we think the Bank will hold fire in spite of the majority view for a cut.
The Philippines’ Q2 GDP was a skin-deep, consensus-beating print
Sales numbers show worsening momentum heading into Q3
