Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
Ignore the y/y misses; lots to be reassured about in the Philippine trade details
THAI BALLOT AND HOT Q4 GDP NO SILVER BULLET
- …INDIA’S 2026/27 BUDGET KICKS THE CAN DOWN THE ROAD
- GDP growth in India cooled modestly to 7.8% in Q4, from 8.4% in Q3, based on the revamped series…
- …‘Statistical discrepancies’ are now much less of a headache; we’ve raised our 2026 forecast to 6.7%.
- The Supreme Court’s tariff ruling is a clear win for EM Asia; risks to export growth, in all, are receding.
- In one line: Members say “why wait” via a surprise cut.
- In one line: Members say “why wait” via a surprise cut.
- The BoT surprised almost all forecasters, including us, with an extra 25bp cut to its policy rate to 1.00%.
- At the same time, though, it has conceded the battle against structurally subdued GDP growth…
- …We still believe that 1.00% will mark the terminal rate, but more CPI misses could force another cut.
- Booming Korean exports in the first 20 days of February are mainly a semiconductor story…
- …Chip exports skyrocketed almost 180% thanks to rising prices and volumes.
- The BoK is likely to hold rates on Friday, despite soft activity outside the tech sector.
An undoubtedly hot start to the year for two-way trade in Thailand
- Taiwan’s trade deal with the US has led to some strange upgrades to 2026 GDP among analysts...
- …We think the trade deal will make little difference; key AI exports were never constrained.
- Traditional industries would be unable to cushion the blow if AI demand were to suffer a pull-back.
- We think GDP rose by around 3½% in Q4, with consumers’ spending up about 2½%.
- AI-linked capex probably continued to surge, while net trade and inventories also made solid contributions.
- The recent pace of growth, however, looks unsustainable; we expect a slowdown in 2026.
- In one line: Blame another random spike in gold imports; purchases from Russia are tanking.
- GDP growth in Thailand leapt unexpectedly in Q4, to 2.5% from the post-pandemic low of 1.2% in Q3…
- …But this was largely due to a resumption of normal government business, as well as its mini-stimulus.
- We still see a broad slowdown this year, but have raised our 2026 forecast to 2.2% from 1.8%.
Thailand’s stronger-than-expected Q4 GDP has the interim government to thank
A sudden pop in ‘upstream core’ inflation in India to start the year
- The lower weight of food in India’s CPI basket forces us to cut our 2026 forecast to 3.3% from 4.1%.
- BI is likely to ‘keep calm and carry on’ holding rates in spite of the JCI plunge; the bleeding has stopped.
- The plunge to 3% GDP growth in the Philippines is effectively a hard landing that should ensure a cut.
- In one line: Holding judgement, for now, as we await more details; but downside risks to 2026 forecast.
- In one line: Holding judgement, for now, as we await more details; but downside risks to 2026 forecast.
- Malaysian retail sales remain static, in terms of seasonally adjusted volumes…
- …We think consumption will continue to support growth, but consumer confidence seems gloomy
- We see warning signs the recovery in Indonesian consumption risks being nipped in the bud.
Indonesian retail sales took a—likely temporary—breather at the end of 2025
Price effects flatter Malaysian retail sales growth in December
- Thailand’s Bhumjaithai party surprised with a clear win, smoothing A nutin’s path to becoming PM…
- …The People’s Party’s loss implies a bigger chance of internal stability and less risk of populist policy.
- We see no reason to change our growth outlook though, as structural headwinds will still dominate.
- In one line: The likely long pause is here.
