Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- In one line: China’s producer prices continue to fall amid involution and weak demand
In one line: China’s producer prices continue to fall amid involution and weak demand
In one line: China’s CPI stays flat in July as disinflation pressure lingers on weak demand
A robust start to Q3 for Indonesian retail sales
- Tariffs continued to lift goods prices in August; we think pass-through is now about one-third complete.
- Airline fares and accommodation services prices are unlikely to rise much further after leaping in August.
- The outsized August jump in CPI rents is just noise around a slowing trend; nothing to worry about.
- Disinflation gains traction in Brazil, but sticky core inflation will keep COPOM on high alert.
- Energy and food drive relief to the headline number, but services and labour costs still pose inflation risks.
- BCCh holds rates at 4.75% as core inflation stays firm and labour market strains delay easing path.
- The Philippines’ unemployment rate in July jumped to its highest level in close to three years, at 5.3%…
- …Adverse weather rightly was to blame, but hiring intentions are now weakening more noticeably.
- Retail sales growth in Indonesia popped in July, but the long-term outlook remains very challenging.
- The ECB stands pat, despite lowering its headline and core inflation forecast for 2027; why?
- A more balanced growth outlook and a relatively high neutral rate mean the ECB is happy, for now.
- Has the bar for easing been lifted or is the risk of a Q4 cut now higher? It could be both, actually.
- We expect the MPC to vote 7-to-2 vote to keep Bank Rate on hold at next week’s policy meeting.
- Rate setters are focused on inflation which is proving persistent, while job falls should ease.
- We look for rate setters to slow QT to £70B a year from October, with sales skewed to shorter durations.
In one line: Held back by a drop in energy.
In one line: Not as bad as in France, Q3 will still be decent.
- In one line: Improvement in producer deflation appears mainly driven by short-term factors, more than policy yet
In one line: China's producer deflation improvement mainly driven by short-term factors; consumer price fall is due to food prices, with core inflation rising
- In one line: BCCh holds fire, flags sticky core inflation and need for more data before resuming cuts.
- In one line: Job falls ease sharply but spare capacity is still building in the labour market.
- In one line: Retail spending can power another solid quarter of economic growth in Q3.
- In one line: Headline inflation eases, but core remains sticky.
- In one line: Headline inflation eases, but core remains sticky.
- Retailers’ margins began to buckle in August under tariff pressure; expect a significant squeeze ahead.
- Producer prices for goods are still rising in response to tariffs, but the underlying cost picture is benign.
- The core PCE deflator likely rose briskly in August, but no sign of the services price surge implied by the ISM.
- Brazil — Rally on easing inflation, election optimism
- Mexico — Upwards amid cautious optimism
- Colombia — Nears 13-year high on broad gains
