Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line:Retail sales rebound and have further to recover in 2026.
- In one line: Consumers' confidence can continue to rise slowly in 2026.
- In one line: Can’t catch a break.
In one line: Decent, but now signals downside risks relative to official forecasts.
In one line: Decent, but now signals downside risks relative to official forecasts.
In one line: Off to a decent start in Q1.
In one line: Off to a decent start in Q1.
In one line: Strength in manufacturing, but PMIs signal weakness in services.
In one line: Strength in manufacturing, but PMIs signal weakness in services.
- In one line: Exports end 2025 with a bang; those to the US continue to defy gravity.
India showing no care to the US-led geopolitical noise
Consumption strong through November, but on shaky foundations.
In one line: EZ consumers seem to be beating the January blues.
Low claims largely due to lower-than-usual post-holiday layoffs.
- The Fed will leave rates on hold this week, but three members will vote to ease again...
- ...And key members will place more weight on the further slowdown in payrolls than robust GDP.
- We still expect rising unemployment to spur easing in H1, but major personnel changes now look less likely.
- Activity in Argentina slipped in November, exposing weak momentum after the mid-term elections…
- …Manufacturing and commerce output fell sharply, while growth is focused on low-employment sectors.
- BCCh will pause amid easing inflation, BCB will hold despite stickiness, and BanRep will tighten as risks rise.
- India’s flash PMIs for January saw a big bounce in both headlines; no trend-change yet, though…
- …Their early Q1 signal points to sub-7.0% GDP growth, and we think it will fall more in Q2 and Q3.
- Our final call for Taiwan’s Q4 GDP print is 12.3%, much higher than the 8.4% consensus.
- The BoJ held rates on Friday, despite rising bond and currency pressure, linked to fiscal policy worries.
- PM Takaichi should emerge from the February 8 election stronger, allowing her to cut taxes.
- The likely tax cut on food will drag inflation by 1pp in 2026, and can be funded from rising tax revenue.
- EZ PMIs were resilient in January but now signal downside risk to growth relative to official forecasts.
- The risk of a dovish surprise in the PMIs in Q1 has increased, given upbeat growth expectations.
- Rising output prices in services are a key hawkish detail in the January PMIs; will this be sustained?
- The labour market is still loosening gradually, but price pressures are sticky and growth is rebounding.
- Rising consumers’ confidence and the jump in the flash PMI suggest positive momentum in Q1.
- We remain comfortable with our call for just one more cut to Bank Rate this year, in April.
