Pantheon Publications

UK Datanote: Retail Sales, September 2025

• In one line:Retail sales should continue to rise despite Budget uncertainty.

UK Datanote: UK GfK Consumers' Confidence Survey, October 2025

• In one line: Consumers are resilient in the face of tax hike rumours.

UK Datanote: UK Flash PMIs, October 2025

• In one line: Growth to hold up in Q4 despite Budget uncertainty, but softening inflation indicators gives the MPC doves hope.

27 October 2025 US Monitor Falling core services inflation to allow extended FOMC easing cycle

• Tariffs continue to lift core goods prices; passthrough is now about two-fifths complete…
• …But core services inflation remains in check and the weakening labor market will drag it lower.
• Higher goods inflation will be fleeting, while falling services inflation will enable the FOMC to ease.

27 October 2025 LatAm Monitor Chile's election nears as markets balance optimism and political risk

• Mr. Kast has steady support in Chile, but fragmented politics and social tensions cloud reform prospects.
• Macro fundamentals remain sound, though capex weakness limits near-term growth momentum.
• Fiscal credibility and governance will determine the durability of Chile’s post-election market stability.

27 October 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Tariff hit still the main story in India's PMIs; GST relief nowhere to be seen

• India’s flash PMIs for October were a mixed bag, but it’s clear that the mid-2025 re-acceleration is over.
• Short-term leading indicators are still softening post-50% tariff, while long-term are average at best.
• The partial Q4 read chimes with our view that the economy is in the midst of a steep GDP slowdown.

27 October 2025 China+ Monitor Japan's new prime minister focuses on obstinately elevated inflation

• Japan’s headline inflation ticked up in September, owing to higher energy inflation.
• The new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, said on Friday that addressing inflation was her top priority.
• The October flash PMIs point to a broad weakening in activity, both manufacturing and services.

27 October 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ PMI rises in October, in line with our view GDP growth is picking up

• The composite PMI for the Eurozone rose in October, as Germany’s index jumped...
• ...The PMI is consistent with better GDP growth in Q4 than Q3, which we think matched Q2’s 0.1% read.
• We still think higher growth and above-target inflation will keep the ECB on hold in December.

27 October 2025 UK Monitor Week in review: December rate-cut call, but reasons for caution still

• September inflation undershooting consensus pulled forward our rate-cut call to December, from February.
• We still think the MPC will skip November, especially with growth data last week showing resilience.
• Little data this week to shift November MPC pricing, but the BRC Shop Price Index will likely accelerate.

Global Datanote: Flash PMIs, Germany, October 2025

In one line: Here comes the turn in Germany.

EZ Datanote: Flash PMIs, Germany, October 2025

In one line: Here comes the turn in Germany.

Global Datanote: INSEE Consumer Confidence & Flash PMIs, France, October 2025

In one line: PMIs remain terrible, but INSEE survey data look better.

EZ Datanote: INSEE Consumer Confidence & Flash PMIs, France, October 2025

In one line: PMIs remain terrible, but INSEE survey data look better.

Global Datanote: Flash Mfg PMI, Japan, October, 2025

In one line: Fading demand weighs on flash PMI manufacturing activity

Global Datanote: Exports, National CPI, Japan, September

In one line:  BoJ won’t be shocked by modest rise in inflation; likely to hold rates next week waiting for clarity on the new government’s fiscal easing

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 24 October 2025: Modest rise in inflation won't shock BoJ

In one line: BoJ won’t be shocked by modest rise in inflation; likely to hold rates next week waiting for clarity on the new government’s fiscal easing 

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 24 October 2025

The 2025 upswing in India's PMIs has stalled

October 2025- Emerging Asia Chartbook

SURPRISE HOLDS FROM THE BOT AND BI WON’T LAST

• …A SERIES OF EARLY-Q3 GDP UPSIDE SHOCKS IN ASEAN

PM Datanote: US Existing Home Sales, September 2025

Lower mortgage rates boost sales, but major headwinds remain.

EZ Datanote: Advance Consumer Confidence, Eurozone, October 2025

In one line: On the up, but still subdued.