Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Upside risks to EZ inflation are rising by the day, as the war in Iran curtails movement through Hormuz.
- Inflation in refined oil products could stay elevated in Europe even if crude prices fall back.
- Our model currently points to German and EZ HICP inflation at 2.3% and 2.4%, respectively, in March.
- We plot how the 2026 energy surge, and position of the UK economy, compares to 2022.
- Oil and natural-gas prices have so far risen by a similar percentage to 2022, but may be fading sooner.
- More spare capacity exists and M4 growth is slower than in 2022, but inflation expectations are deanchored.
In one line: Falling imports to boost net exports in 2026?
A decent, if unimpressive, start to the year for Indonesian retail sales
- EUROZONE - Three scenarios for the ECB as a new energy shock hits
- UK - GDP still on track to rise by 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q1
- CHINA+ - China seeks to project stability, while gradually patching up domestic issues
- EM ASIA - India and Indonesia will be backed into fuel hikes, but not yet rate hikes
- LATAM - Oil shock tests LatAm assets and central banks; Chile’s delicate start
- The highest net balance of small business reported rising sales in February since May 2022...
- ...But elevated uncertainty is keeping capex intentions at multi-year lows, and hiring plans subdued.
- We are revising up our forecast for the January core PCE deflator; prices for legal services soared.
- Headline inflation in Colombia eased in February, but core and services prices continue to rise.
- The minimum-wage shock and indexation threaten to halt disinflation and keep expectations high this year.
- A fragmented Congress and competitive presidential race raise political risk premia across markets.
- The Philippines’ staggered fuel hikes won’t stop inflation from jumping above 3% this month…
- …Vietnam’s much larger adjustment bolsters our view that the SBV will hike rates at least once in H2.
- The modest pace of Indonesian retail sales growth is looking increasingly fragile once again.
- German hard data were mixed in early Q1; industry and retail sales weakened, but net trade jumped.
- Surveys point to strength in manufacturing in Q1, despite January declines in new orders and output.
- The increase in German construction output in January looks odd; we think it will be revised away.
- We expect CPI inflation to be unchanged at 3.0% in February, matching the MPC’s forecast.
- Higher core goods inflation—driven by clothes—and airfares should offset weaker services and motor fuels.
- President Trump looking for an Iran exit ramp means we now see inflation peaking at 3.3% in December.
- In one line: Core pressures pushed inflation up slightly and the outlook is worsening.
- In one line: Core pressures pushed inflation up slightly and the outlook is worsening.
- In one line: AI server growth moderating.
In one line: Bank of Korea hold rates at 2.50%; Adding Fed-style dot plot to anchor market expectations, signals six months hold
In one line: Korea’s 20-day exports surge in February on semiconductors, despite fewer working days, as DRAM prices soar in Q1
- The core CPI likely rose by 0.2% in February, despite the rebound in used auto prices.
- Nearly all the tariff costs have already come through; snowstorms likely weighed on clothing prices.
- The jump in oil prices to $85pb implies headline CPI inflation will shoot above 3% soon.
In one line: Japan exports spike on Lunar New Year boost, strong momentum unlikely to last.
- Higher oil prices and geopolitical tensions risk reversing recent disinflation progress across LatAm.
- Banxico likely will pause easing as core inflation remains sticky and external risks intensify.
- Chile’s inflation has cooled below target, but rising oil prices and a weaker CLP now threaten the outlook.
- The spike and projected stickiness in oil prices due to the Middle East unrest is now material for Asia…
- …We’ve raised our 2026 inflation forecasts for India and Indonesia to 4.0% and 2.9%, respectively.
- Taiwan’s exports moderated in February amid Lunar New Year noise, but now face serious energy risk.
- China’s consumer inflation in January-February, at 0.8%, was in line with the previous two months.
- Low inflation and sluggish domestic demand leave ample room to absorb an energy-price surge.
- Producer inflation continued to improve in February, thanks to oil and non-ferrous metals prices.
