Pantheon Publications

EM Asia Datanote: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Decision

• In one line: Rightly unfazed, for now, by the upswing in oil prices.

20 June 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor BSP, rightly unfazed by oil prices, leaves door open to two more cuts

• The BSP cut rates by another 25bp, to 5.25%, while slashing its 2025 inflation forecast to just 1.6%…
• …We expect two more reductions by year-end, a scenario Mr. Remolona implied is on the cards.
• The CBC is not under enough pressure to consider a rate cut; the surge in the TWD could change this.

Global Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision

• In one line: Sticking to the gradualist approach, for now.

EM Asia Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision

• In one line: Sticking to the gradualist approach, for now.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 18 June 2025

Export front-running in Thai exports is still going strong

19 June 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Front-running of Thai exports expanding, but H2 outlook souring

• Thai export growth soared to a fresh multi-year high in May, as the front-loading broadened in scope…
• …But short-term leading indicators are still weakening, further clouding the H2 payback story.
• Bank Indonesia went back to a pause after its April cut, but we expect 75bp in further easing in H2.

18 June 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Singapore's NODX disappointment in May has been on the card

• Singapore’s NODX collapsed into the red in May; momentum was fading, front-running has peaked.
• The extent of the resurgence in oil prices, for now, remains no threat to India’s low-inflation climate…
• …Trade data suggest stockpiling when oil prices were falling, but this activity eased markedly in May.

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, India, May

• In one line: Led by an overdue correction in oil imports.

EM Asia Datanote: WPI, India, May

• In one line: No material change—yet—to the outlook for continued fuel & power deflation.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 13 June 2025

March pop in Indonesian sales evaporates completely, as expected

16 June 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Malaysian retail sales remain weak, but high debt is no major worry

• Malaysian retail sales moderated in April; we are worried about its failure to reach pre-Covid levels.
• Debt is high, but this shouldn’t risk the outlook for long-term sales, as most of it is secured borrowing.
• Indonesian sales faltered in April; the mini-stimulus won’t help, especially with confidence tanking.

Global Datanote: CPI, India, May

• In one line: No signs yet of food disinflation stabilising.

13 June 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Outright food deflation in India is imminent; 2025 consensus too high

• Indian inflation dropped to its lowest level in over six years in May, coming in below expectations at 2.8%.
• Food disinflation is still the overriding story, and our daily tracker points to outright deflation here soon.
• We’ve cut our 2025 forecast to 2.8%, but raised our 2026 call to 5.0%, with this year’s base so low.

10 June 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Taiwan's exports experience yet another month of front-loading

• Taiwan’s exports surprised in May, rising 38.6%, up from 29.9% in April; the front-loading continues…
• …This will likely mean the central bank holds back on easing when it meets next week.
• Thai deflation likely hit a low in May, but the strengthening THB could lead to its return next year.

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, India, May

• In one line: No signs yet of food disinflation stabilising.

Global Datanote: Reserve Bank of India Decision

• In one line: Front-loading most of this year’s remaining cuts.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 June 2025

The RBI front-loads most of this year’s remaining cuts
Front-loading of Vietnamese exports to the US continues apace
Latest electricity-price hike nudges Vietnamese inflation up a touch
Vietnamese retail sales are having a torrid Q2
The resurgence in Philippine sales is topping out

9 June 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor RBI's surprise front-loading of cuts doesn't mark the finish line

• The RBI surprised with a larger 50bp cut to the repo rate, to 5.50%, but hardened its stance to “neutral”.
• We still expect one more 25bp cut, in October, with the MPC underestimating the “space” it has left.
• Ignore Vietnam’s smaller trade surplus in May; the front-loading of exports to the US continues apace.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 5 June 2025

All clear for another BSP cut this month

6 June 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Taiwanese inflation finally below 2%, due to easing cost-push factors

• Taiwan’s CPI moderated sharply to 1.6% in May, due to food, transport and “Liberation Day”.
• Philippine CPI fell to a 5.5-year low in May, but this should be the nadir, as food CPI will soon creep up.
• Indonesia’s U-turn on electricity discounts has compelled us to raise our 2025 CPI call to 1.8%.