A strong finish to India’s Q2, if June's flash PMIs hold
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Japan’s GDP shrinks for the first time in a year, reinforcing the BoJ's wait-and-see stance.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)Global
In one line: China's commercial banks hold benchmark lending rates steady in June
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan's core inflation surprised on the upside, but unlikely to sway BoJ into hiking mode
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)Global
In one line: BoJ slowed tapering pace for next fiscal year but stood pat on policy rates in June
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)Global
In one line: BoJ slowed tapering pace for next fiscal year but stood pat on policy rates in June
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)Global
In one line: BoJ slowed tapering pace for next fiscal year but stood pat on policy rates in June
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
LEADING LABOR MARKET INDICATORS HAVE WORSENED…
THE FED WILL EASE IN SEP, BEFORE INFLATION PEAKS
Samuel TombsUS
In one line: Recovery from March and April’s drops has ended already
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Hit by free-falling electricity production.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- - CHINA’S FLAGGING GROWTH TO PROMPT POLICY TWEAKS
- - BOJ OPTS FOR PRAGMATIC MIDDLE PATH ON BOND-BUYING
- - BOK LIKELY TO EASE, DESPITE CURRENCY WORRY
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Real income growth has already slowed significantly, and will grind to a halt as tariffs boost consumer prices.
- Spending growth likely will soften too; households’ balance sheets are less supportive than post-Covid.
- We expect growth in consumers’ spending to slow just 1% by Q4, down from nearly 3% in Q1.
Samuel TombsUS
- The COPOM defied consensus, raising the Selic to 15.00%, and signalled a hawkish extended pause.
- Persistent inflation and deanchored expectations are keeping Brazil’s policy tight despite activity slowing.
- Chile’s BCCh paused again; easing will depend on data amid resilient growth and global headwinds.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Malaysian exports unexpectedly fell by 1.1% in May, because of subdued commodity demand…
- …Weak crude oil futures and declining LNG demand will continue to drag on exports in H2.
- Thai stocks are slumping amid new political turmoil; instability is a known risk, so expect no quick fixes.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Japan’s headline national consumer inflation inched down in May, with energy inflation cooling.
- The new rice distribution system is star ting to yield results, but rice prices are still double the target range.
- The BoJ is likely to sit tight on interest rates this year, given the impact of higher US tariffs.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- A firm commitment from Germany to spend 5% of GDP on defence would be a rug-pull for Bunds.
- Rising investor sentiment and calmness on the trade front point to decent June survey data this week.
- Early-Q2 data indicate upside risk to GDP growth in France, but we still look for just 0.1% q/q.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Soft data and one more dove than expected last week nudge up the chances of an August rate cut.
- We see the bar to a majority in August higher than the market does and retain our call for a November cut.
- June’s flash PMI will give a steer on Q2 GDP, and a host of MPC speeches will shed light on guidance.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: We were wrong; SNB opts for another small cut.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
