Pantheon Publications

Global Datanote: CPI, Indonesia, June

• In one line: Expect a further rise in food inflation in the July report.

Global Datanote: Trade, Indonesia, May

• In one line: Export growth probably will buckle again in Q3.

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, ASEAN, June

• In one line: Post-export-front-loading clouds continue to darken.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 1 July 2025

Post-export-front-loading clouds for ASEAN continue to darken
Indonesian export growth probably will buckle again in Q3
Expect a further rise in Indonesian food inflation in the July report

2 July 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Tariff pause has done ASEAN no favours; an extension won't either

• ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI deteriorated further in June, and all signs point to more near-term falls.
• Indonesian export growth is in for a rockier H2, in spite of evidence of stabilising demand from China.
• Consumer sectors were to blame for India’s poor May IP; that’s a double whammy for the economy.

Global Datanote: Industrial Production, India, May

• In one line: Consumer-facing industries are buckling.

EM Asia Datanote: Industrial Production, India, May

• In one line: Consumer-facing industries are buckling.

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, April

• In one line: Headline absurdity continues.

1 July 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Thai consumption remains sluggish, with large headwinds intensifying

• Retail sales growth in Thailand is still at an absurdly-high double-digit rate; ignoring the rosy headlines…
• …The monthly consumption index remains weak, and fading confidence points to more downside.
• Consumption looks set to continue rising, though, as wages recover alongside productivity.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 27 June 2025

A bump in the road for the uptrend in real Philippine import demand

30 June 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Hoping we're not jinxing it...we rescind our call for SBV cuts in 2025

• We no longer expect the SBV to restart cuts, with the worst-case tariff scenario looking less likely…
• …Plus, credit growth is already soaring and the authorities won’t want to risk rocking the VND further.
• Philippine household savings recovered more substantially in 2024, but the Covid hole remains huge.

June 2025- Emerging Asia Chartbook

THE RBI—RIGHTLY—ISN’T BUYING THIS ‘RECOVERY’

• …CRACKS SHOWING IN THE EXPORT FRONT-LOADING STORY

Global Datanote: Bank of Thailand Decision

• In one line: Pausing, for now.

EM Asia Datanote: Bank of Thailand Decision

• In one line: Pausing, for now.

26 June 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor BoT hits pause and ups its 2025 outlook post-"Liberation Day" chaos

• The BoT yesterday left the policy rate steady after two consecutive cuts, in line with our expectation.
• The MPC’s worst fears at the April meeting have been averted, leading to an upgrade to its GDP call.
• We maintain that 1.75% is the terminal rate, though the risks are still clearly skewed to the downside.

24 June 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Solid end to Q2, but India's PMIs still point to soft-ish GDP growth

• India’s flash PMIs for June were robust, but note they remain susceptible to huge downgrades…
• …And they’re still down year-over-year in Q2, indicating big downside risk to GDP forecasts.
• Other details show waning optimism over the long run, and downward pressure building on core CPI.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 23 June 2025

A strong finish to India’s Q2, if June's flash PMIs hold

EM Asia Datanote: Core Production, India, May

• In one line: Hit by free-falling electricity production.

23 June 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Collapsing commodity demand weighs on Malaysian exports

• Malaysian exports unexpectedly fell by 1.1% in May, because of subdued commodity demand…
• …Weak crude oil futures and declining LNG demand will continue to drag on exports in H2.
• Thai stocks are slumping amid new political turmoil; instability is a known risk, so expect no quick fixes.

Global Datanote: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Decision

• In one line: Rightly unfazed, for now, by the upswing in oil prices.