Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Swiss inflation held steady at first glance, but the details are dovish.
- Leading indicators point to a gradual fall in inflation out to year-end, in contrast to the SNB’s forecasts.
- It’s a close call, but we think the risks to the outlook tip the balance towards a final rate cut this month.
- We expect GDP to be unchanged in July, as services output and industrial production stagnate.
- Activity in the construction sector likely fell, following the lead from chronically weak business sentiment.
- Our call points to quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.2% in Q3, below the MPC’s forecast, with risks skewed up.
In one line: China's RatingDog services PMI points to job risks after court ruling on social security contributions
- In one line: A more confident uptick, with tariff clouds receding.
A more confident uptick in ASEAN manufacturing, with tariff clouds receding
- In one line: Jump in new orders obscures underlying weakness
Jump in new orders obscured underlying weakness.
- In one line: Growth slows as capex falls, but services hold up.
- In one line: Growth slows as capex falls, but services hold up.
- In one line: The end of September rate cut hopes.
In one line: The end of September rate cut hopes.
- Home equity lending has grown considerably in recent years, but remains a shadow of its former self.
- Weak confidence, tight lending standards, and falling home prices suggest a big spending boost is unlikely.
- Fewer job openings than unemployed people for the first time since April 2021 will suppress wage growth.
- Brazilian Real — Resilient, but volatility is persisting
- Mexican Peso — Stable, but capped by external noise
- Colombian Peso — Early rebound before consolidation
- ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI rose more comfortably above 50 in August, to 51.0…
- …Consolidation above 50 is looking likely, with short-term leading indicators recovering in tandem.
- But downside risks prevail over the long run; for now, we’ve yet to see firms cut prices to fight tariffs.
- The August RatingDog services PMI flashed a warning signal about job losses, despite strong activity.
- A court ruling on mandatory social security payments is the likely culprit, leading firms to trim workers.
- Local governments probably won't fully enforce the rule, but the uncertainty created is hitting jobs already.
- The fall in Italian GDP in Q2 was confirmed; net trade fell but investment remained resilient
- We now expect Italian GDP to rise in Q3 and Q4, though this still means just 0.6% growth this year.
- The government in France will fall on Monday, but look closely and public finances are now improving.
- The PMI rose to a 12-month high in August, boosted by falling policy uncertainty.
- The PMI signals 0.3% quarter-to-quarter GDP growth in Q3, matching the MPC’s forecast.
- The MPC’s hands will be tied for the rest of 2025, as growth at potential limits spare capacity emerging.
- US - August payrolls likely will maintain the pressure for looser Fed policy
- EUROZONE - ECB’s easing cycle is over; risks now tilting to rate hikes, in 2027
- UK - Insolvencies holding steady despite the barrage of headwinds
- CHINA+ - Chinese manufacturers tolerate tariff shifts, but small firms struggle
- EM ASIA - BI’s urgency to cut faster since July in context; expect at least one more
- LATAM - Banxico slows pace of easing as core inflation pressures persist
- Brazil’s Q2 GDP growth slowed sharply, as temporary supports fade and monetary tightening bites.
- Household consumption and services showed resilience, but capex saw renewed weakness.
- Peru’s inflation is firmly anchored, giving BCRP flexibility to balance demand and external uncertainty.
- We expect CPI inflation to hold at 3.8% in August, as a jump in food prices offsets a correction in airfares.
- We see upside risk to our call after strong flash Eurozone food CPI inflation.
- Gilts suffer from a global sell-off and UK-specific risks; Ms. Reeves needs to aim for proper fiscal headroom.
