Pantheon Publications

8 August 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Philippines' market-beating Q2 GDP doesn't stand up to scrutiny

• The Philippines’ Q2 GDP beat expectations slightly, with yearly growth ticking up to 5.5% from 5.4%…
• …But this was down largely to a misleading U-turn in net exports, masking a weakening domestically.
• We reiterate our below-consensus 5.3% forecast for 2025, implying a renewed slowdown in H2.

Global Datanote: Reserve Bank of India Decision, August 2025

• In one line: Holding—understandably—in spite of the tariff let-down.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 August 2025

The RBI holds—understandably—in spite of the tariff let-down
An initial sign that the front-loading of Vietnamese exports to the US is over
A decent start to Q3 for still-depressed Vietnamese retail sales
Transport deflation re-steepens in Vietnam; it's here to stay, for now
June leap in Thai food inflation reverses completely

7 August 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor RBI's hands not tied in October, when we expect one final 25bp cut

• The RBI stood pat this month, commendabl­y in the wake of the tariff outcry; we still see one more cut.
• Vietnamese exports comfortably beat expectations in July, but US front-loading looks finally to be over.
• Taiwan inflation edged up, on higher education and entertainment costs, though this is likely temporary.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 5 August 2025

Big investment rebound drives Indonesia’s Q2 upside surprise
July should mark the low for Philippine inflation, but short-term downside risks dominate

6 August 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Two things stood out in Indonesia's Q2 surprise: one clear, one hidden

• Indonesia’s Q2 GDP defied expectations, with growth rising to 5.1% on the back of investment…
• …Consumption was stable, unsurprisingly, but our more realistic proxy series shows a Q2 jump.
• The Philippines’ soft July CPI print was no surprise to us, but should mark the low of the current cycle.

Global Datanote: CPI, Indonesia, July 2025

• In one line: Discount the base effects lifting food inflation; the headline should now stabilise.

Global Datanote: Trade, Indonesia, June 2025

In one line: Export growth is in for a weaker H2.

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, ASEAN, July

• In one line: Early US trade deals in July help ASEAN manufacturing find its feet, for now.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 1 August 2025

Early US trade deals in July help ASEAN manufacturing find its feet, for now
Indonesian export growth is in for a weaker H2
Discount the base effects lifting Indonesian food inflation; the headline should now stabilise

4 August 2025 Emerging Respite for ASEAN factories, but road ahead set to stay bumpy

• ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI returned to the black in July, just, for the first time since “Liberation Day ”…
• …But leading indicators remain bleak; the US’s ‘final’ tariffs are at least broadly a win for EM Asia.
• The Monetary Authority of Singapore paused and set a high bar for more easing in the short run.

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, May

• In one line: A—slightly—more credible print; consumption, in reality, slowed further in Q2.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 30 July 2025

Philippine trade was flattered hugely by base effects in June

July 2025 Emerging Asia Chartbook

BI CUTS IN JULY; NEW BOT CHIEF TO RESTART EASING

• …EARLY Q2 GDP RESULTS ALL SEE UPSIDE SURPRISES

31 July 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Big catch-up themes in PH two-way trade; net exports key to Q2 GDP

• Two-way trade in the Philippines easily beat the consensus in June, but base effects helped hugely…
• …Still, underlying the inflated headlines are real recoveries in chip exports and capital goods imports.
• Net exports will be the star of the show in next week’s Q2 GDP; we now see the headline at 5.3%.

Global Datanote: Industrial Production, India, June

• In one line: A ten-month low, as consumer sectors continue to broadly weaken.

EM Asia Datanote: Industrial Production, India, June

• In one line: A ten-month low, as consumer sectors continue to broadly weaken.

29 July 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Three quick takeaways from India's softer-than-expected June IP print

• Indian IP growth sank to a 10-month low in June, but the huge upgrade to May cushions this blow.
• Overall momentum continues to deteriorate, pouring a lot of cold water over the rosy PMIs…
• …The slump in consumer firms continues, but expect to see ‘better’ manufacturing in Q2 GDP.

28 July 2025 Emerging Asia Actions now speaking louder than words, assuaging ID fiscal worries

• Indonesia’s Q2 fiscal belt-tightening is reassuring in terms of policy credibility, if bad for growth,…
• …The urgency to restrain spending should fade from Q3, with revenue growth set to recover gradually.
• The overtly dovish Mr. Vitai has been chosen to head the BoT; we now see two 25bp rate cuts in Q4.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 24 July 2025

PMIs indicate a decent start to Q3 for India’s economy
US front-loading in Thailand is still going strong