Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Tariffs still pushing goods inflation higher, but services inflation looks soft under the hood.
Tariffs still pushing goods inflation higher, but services inflation looks soft under the hood.
In one line: Driven higher by pick up in German activity.
In one line: Driven higher by pick up in German activity.
- In one line: Disinflation anchored by a stronger BRL.
- In one line:Retail sales should continue to rise despite Budget uncertainty.
- In one line: Consumers are resilient in the face of tax hike rumours.
- In one line: Growth to hold up in Q4 despite Budget uncertainty, but softening inflation indicators gives the MPC doves hope.
- Tariffs continue to lift core goods prices; passthrough is now about two-fifths complete…
- …But core services inflation remains in check and the weakening labor market will drag it lower.
- Higher goods inflation will be fleeting, while falling services inflation will enable the FOMC to ease.
- Mr. Kast has steady support in Chile, but fragmented politics and social tensions cloud reform prospects.
- Macro fundamentals remain sound, though capex weakness limits near-term growth momentum.
- Fiscal credibility and governance will determine the durability of Chile’s post-election market stability.
- India’s flash PMIs for October were a mixed bag, but it’s clear that the mid-2025 re-acceleration is over.
- Short-term leading indicators are still softening post-50% tariff, while long-term are average at best.
- The partial Q4 read chimes with our view that the economy is in the midst of a steep GDP slowdown.
- Japan’s headline inflation ticked up in September, owing to higher energy inflation.
- The new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, said on Friday that addressing inflation was her top priority.
- The October flash PMIs point to a broad weakening in activity, both manufacturing and services.
- The composite PMI for the Eurozone rose in October, as Germany’s index jumped...
- ...The PMI is consistent with better GDP growth in Q4 than Q3, which we think matched Q2’s 0.1% read.
- We still think higher growth and above-target inflation will keep the ECB on hold in December.
- September inflation undershooting consensus pulled forward our rate-cut call to December, from February.
- We still think the MPC will skip November, especially with growth data last week showing resilience.
- Little data this week to shift November MPC pricing, but the BRC Shop Price Index will likely accelerate.
In one line: Here comes the turn in Germany.
In one line: Here comes the turn in Germany.
In one line: PMIs remain terrible, but INSEE survey data look better.
In one line: PMIs remain terrible, but INSEE survey data look better.
In one line: Fading demand weighs on flash PMI manufacturing activity
In one line: BoJ won’t be shocked by modest rise in inflation; likely to hold rates next week waiting for clarity on the new government’s fiscal easing
