Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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GROWTH HOLDS UP WHILE INFLATION JUMPS...
- …SO WE EXPECT AN MPC RATE HIKE IN JUNE
THE EUROZONE IS SLIPPING BACK INTO STAGFLATION…
- …THE ECB WILL FOCUS ON INFLATION WITH TWO RATE HIKES THIS YEAR
- GDP grew by 2.0% in Q1, but underlying momentum was weak even before the energy shock hit in full.
- Consumers’ spending slowed further, while investment outside the tech sector dipped again.
- Core PCE inflation will climb further in the near term, but we expect it to be back below 3% by year-end.
- Brazil’s COPOM continued its cautious easing, as rising inflation risk limits scope for greater action…
- …The oil shock and fiscal uncertainty complicate the policy outlook, reinforcing the need for gradual cuts.
- Oil-related inflation risks rise, while weaker domestic activity keeps BCCh firmly in wait-and-see mode.
- Taiwan’s Q1 GDP growth reached new heights, at 13.7%, smashing all expectations...
- …Consumption has been stronger than expected since Q4, but we think this is a false flag.
- We still expect GDP growth to moderate in 2026, due to the Iran war and high base effects.
- China’s manufacturing PMIs held up well in April, despite the disruption from the war in the Middle East.
- This resilience should continue in the near term, though exports are likely to slow as global demand fades.
- The weak construction PMI likely reflects bad weather; the infrastructure investment rebound should continue.
- The ECB held fire but clearly hinted at a rate hike in June, unless a miracle happens in the Middle East.
- Inflation in the EZ hit 3.0% in April and is on track for 3.5% in May, with the 2026 average at 3.0%.
- EZ GDP growth slowed in Q1, on the eve of the energy shock, and growth will stay subdued in Q2.
- The MPC’s decision to hold rates, and the vote split, were in line with consensus.
- The MPC’s guidance suggests to us a couple of rate hikes this year, fewer than the market had priced.
- Mr. Bailey’s communication in the press conference jarred with MPC scenarios, so we detail our take.
- In one line: The war has been ‘good’ for the MPC’s policy space.
- In one line: The war has been ‘good’ for the MPC’s policy space.
In one line: Hi-tech and energy-related upstream sectors drive Chinese industrial profit growth higher in Q1
In one line: Japan National CPI firms on core goods and fading energy drag; BoJ likely to delay hike next week.
In one line: Japan manufacturing boosted by precautionary front-loading amid supply shocks while services slow
In one line: Japan exports rebound in March on post-LNY China demand; BoJ hike likely delayed to June after media leak
In one line: Korea exports still strong in early April, led by semiconductors.
In one line: China’s LPR steady in April amid NIM pressure
EARLY Q1 GDP NUMBERS SHOW A GENERAL COOLING
- …BSP AND MAS TIGHTEN IN VIEW OF CPI RISKS
Spending growth probably still slowing, labor market still weak.
- In one line: The oil shock is now feeding through more forcefully into headline inflation.
- In one line: Decent, but positive momentum is fading.
