Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Food and electricity prices pushed inflation higher in Brazil, limiting room for further monetary easing…
- …Inflation expectations are still rising, as weather and geopolitical risks threaten further inflation pressures.
- Softer inflation supports a rate pause in Peru, but risks increasingly point away from further easing.
- Two Malaysian states are now holding elections, thus raising calls for a general election...
- ...and implying changes to fuel subsidies or an expansion of the tax base are likely off the table.
- This probably won’t move bond yields, but it reduces fiscal headroom and damages credibility.
- China’s broad credit growth slowed further in May, indicative of sluggish credit demand.
- The fiscal deposit drawdown points to construction activity likely rebounding in May.
- The producer inflation rise is cost-push and unlikely to turn into high consumer inflation, given weak demand.
- The SNB will leave rates on hold throughout 2026, unlike its neighbouring central bank, the ECB.
- The SNB’s Q2 projections for inflation in the medium term will be slightly higher than before.
- We expect the Chairman to reiterate the SNB’s willingness to curb the strength of the CHF.
- GDP is still on track to rise by 0.2% quarter-to-quarter in Q2, above the MPC’s forecast, 0.1%.
- Inflation expectations increasingly look de-anchored, suggesting second-round inflation effects will kick in.
- The MPC will hold Bank Rate while standing ready to act, but our call for a July hike looks shaky.
In one line: The ECB will hike again, but when?
In one line: As expected, and further tightening is likely.
War hit to Indonesian retail sales is here, and we've likely not seen the worst of it
HOUSE PRICES DIP IN MARCH...
- ...AND ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SUBDUED THROUGHOUT 2026
- Headline inflation has hit a three-year high, but we see few signs of increasing underlying pressures.
- The energy shock will lift core goods prices in the coming months, but shelter inflation will cool.
- Slowing wage growth suggests a sustained climb in inflation for core services ex-rent is unlikely.
- The rebound in Mexico’s industry eases recession fears, but manufacturing activity is far from a boom.
- Services remain Brazil’s main growth engine, supported by resilient domestic demand…
- …But persistent inflation and softer surveys suggest services growth will moderate further.
- BI shocked with an off-cycle 25bp hike this week, likely removing the need for another one next week.
- Its Fed and C/A views are overly bearish, while the foreign equity rout may be just a one-off adjustment.
- Retail sales growth crashed into the red in April, somewhat unfairly, but the worst is still to come.
- Chinese satellite imagery concurs with April’s activity slump, with urban luminosity falling on an annual basis.
- May’s activity data are likely to stay weak, weighed down by soft domestic demand, though better than April.
- Fiscal deposit deployment may support May’s FAI, while spending faces payback effects from trade-in policies.
- The ECB hiked, and Ms. Lagarde struck a hawkish tone, backed by punchy new inflation forecasts.
- We’re maintaining our view of a back-to-back hike in July, though it remains a close call.
- The ECB is worried that a prolonged energy inflation shock is now driving second-round effects.
- Andy Burnham is extremely likely to become the next prime minister if he wins the Makerfield by-election.
- But a raft of U-turns even before he has reached Number 10 leave us with little sense of a ‘grand plan’.
- We see inflation risks, from either higher taxes and spending, or borrowing-funded spending.
In one line: Boosted once again by capital goods.
- Headline inflation has hit a three-year high, but we see few signs of increasing underlying pressures.
- The energy shock will lift core goods prices in the coming months, but shelter inflation will cool.
- Slowing wage growth suggests a sustained climb in inflation for core services ex-rent is unlikely.
- Brazil — Fiscal worries cap upside
- Mexico — Rally pauses as investors reassess risks
- Colombia — Elections dominate the equity story
- We expect the MPC to vote seven-to-two to hold Bank Rate, with a risk that only Huw Pill votes for a hike.
- Dovish data-flow since the last MPC meeting means that guidance will shift towards being more balanced.
- But rate-setters still need to validate the market curve to maintain tight enough financial conditions.
- We expect the MPC to vote seven-to-two to hold Bank Rate, with a risk that only Huw Pill votes for a hike.
- Dovish data-flow since the last MPC meeting means that guidance will shift towards being more balanced.
- But rate-setters still need to validate the market curve to maintain tight enough financial conditions.
