- We cut our Q2 GDP growth forecast to 0.2% quarter-to-quarter from 0.3% previously, after soft data.
- Energy prices nudge up our inflation forecasts; we see CPI inflation peaking at 3.7% in September.
- We see payrolls and GDP rebounding, which keeps us expecting only one more rate cut this year.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
THE RBI—RIGHTLY—ISN’T BUYING THIS ‘RECOVERY’
- …CRACKS SHOWING IN THE EXPORT FRONT-LOADING STORY
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
THE NEXT STEPS FOR THE ECB ARE FINELY BALANCED...
- ...WE STILL SEE A FINAL CUT TO 1.75%, SETTING UP HIKES NEXT YEAR
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
GDP on course for a misleading jump in Q2.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Inflation eases slightly, but risks persist.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: A fall after improving throughout Q2.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
IMay slump brings sales back to reality.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- We look for a below-consensus 0.2% decline in real expenditure in May...
- ...One-time factors likely drove the drop, but the Q3 outlook for real after-tax income growth is bleak.
- 3% GDP growth looks likely in Q2, as the unwinding of tariff distortions obscures underlying weakness.
Samuel TombsUS
- Banxico cuts rates, but rising inflation and Board split signal slower, more cautious easing ahead.
- Disinflation is emerging in Brazil, but policy is still tight amid lingering core pressures and fiscal uncertainty…
- …The Selic will likely be held at 15%, as the BCB sees easing risks outweighing fragile disinflation.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Early national data suggest the fall in EZ consumer confidence in June was focused outside the big two.
- The details indicate that risks to spending in Q2 are still to the downside in France and Germany.
- Indeed figures show slowing wage growth in Italy in May, but a pick-up in France and Spain.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Manufacturing orders fall in June but the worst of the tariff-induced slowdown appears over.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
Inflation expectations dropping back, labor market still weakening.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Benign inflation print supports a cautious Banxico rate cut.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: Japan's manufacturing PMI rebound on stockpiling activity, but domestic demand softens
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan's services business activity grow faster in June, but slowing input cost increase bode ill for wage growth
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s current account balance holds up in Q1, but deterioration likely in Q2.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan’s GDP shrinks for the first time in a year, reinforcing the BoJ's wait-and-see stance.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
