Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
- Indonesian Q4 GDP growth beat expectations, at 5.4%, and is likely closer to 7.0% in reality…
- …Consumption is the real hero, not investment; we’ve upgraded our 2026 growth forecast to 5.1%.
- The leap in inflation in January was quite deceptive; calm food prices force us to cut our 2026 call.
- India’s 2026/27 budget is the least restrictive we’ve seen in years, seeing a trivial deficit consolidation…
- …to 4.3% of GDP; an achievable target in our view, given the natural capex ceiling and realistic tax goal.
- The start of a new anchor—debt-to-GDP—will mean faster consolidation from 2027/28 though.
- In one line: A deceptively soft headline.
- In one line: Two-way trade ends 2025 on a solid note.
- In one line: Sturdy momentum is holding up.
Sturdy manufacturing momentum in ASEAN is holding up
Two-way trade in Indonesia ends 2025 on a solid note
A deceptively soft January headline CPI print in Indonesia
- In one line: Returning to earth, again; other, more credible data show a decent Q4.
- Indonesia’s soaring equities sold off sharply last week, threatened with a downgrade to ‘frontier’…
- …Fundamentally, the correction seems harsh, from the standpoint of improving ‘real’ economic activity.
- Thailand’s election at the end of this week still looks set to result in a fragile coalition government.
Anti-graft drive drags Philippine growth down to weakest in nearly 15 years
- In one line: An unexpected—if narrow—jump to a 26-month high.
- In one line: An unexpected—if narrow—jump to a 26-month high.
Sagging Philippine imports—masked by base effects—is the real story
- The Philippines’ Q4 GDP was grim, with growth plummeting to just 3.0%, from 3.9% in Q3…
- …We’ve yet to see signs of a bottom in investment-related indicators, while consumption remains soft.
- We’ve cut our already-below-consensus GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 4.8%, from 5.0%.
EM ASIA EXPORTERS END 2025 WITH A GDP BANG
- …WE RAISE OUR 2026 INDIA CPI FORECAST TO OVER 4%
- Private firms are turning more optimistic about profits, with good reason, but only in certain sectors...
- ...The AI boom, green energy transition and industrial upgrading are lifting profits for related sectors.
- But Q4 consumer sentiment remained glum, indicating continued sluggish domestic demand this year.
- Thai customs exports easily beat expectations in December, with growth returning to double digits…
- …Soaring US demand is getting more help from the DM world, while shipments elsewhere are lagging.
- On balance, it looks like net trade will hit Q4 GDP hard, especially with imports bouncing strongly.
- In one line: Exports end 2025 with a bang; those to the US continue to defy gravity.
India showing no care to the US-led geopolitical noise
- India’s flash PMIs for January saw a big bounce in both headlines; no trend-change yet, though…
- …Their early Q1 signal points to sub-7.0% GDP growth, and we think it will fall more in Q2 and Q3.
- Our final call for Taiwan’s Q4 GDP print is 12.3%, much higher than the 8.4% consensus.
- In one line: The BI rate won’t go anywhere this year.
