Pantheon Publications

PM Datanote: Monetary policy meeting, Brazil, November, 2025

• In one line: Cautious COPOM holds steady amid uncertainty.

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, October 2025

Likely sending a false alarm on services inflation.

UK Datanote: UK Car Registrations, October 2025

• In one line: Predictable correction after the strongest September in five years, the underlying trend is up.

7 November 2025 US Monitor How worrying is the surge in layoff announcements?

• The relationship between Challenger job cut announcements and actual layoffs has loosened lately...
• ...WARN filings are a better leading indicator; they also rose in October, but to a smaller extent.
• We agree with the consensus that break-even payroll growth is about 50K, but for first estimates its 100K.

7 November 2025 LatAm Monitor BCB stands pat, showing caution on inflation; Banxico cuts, as expected

• The COPOM held the Selic at 15%, reaffirming its hawkish stance amid slow disinflation and global risk.
• Inflation expectations continue to ease, but the Board stressed patience and vigilance before any rate cut…
• …That first cut is now likely delayed to January as the BCB prioritises credibility and inflation convergence.

7 November 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Vietnam's export bonanza is over, but US payback is no one-way street

• Vietnamese exports disappointed in October, but the payback from US front-loading isn’t one-way.
• BNM held rates as the economy remains resilient to US tariffs; the new trade deal will enhance this.
• Taiwan’s inflation ticked up in October, probably lifted by mid-autumn festival spending.

7 November 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ consumption growth decent in Q3; German industry underwhelms

•  EZ retail spending growth slowed to 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, from 0.8% in Q2…. 
• ....but overall consumption growth likely was decent, and we look for more of the same in Q4. 
• Rebound in German manufacturing was tepid in September, but output likely rose again in October.

7 November 2025 UK Monitor We reiterate our call for a cut in December then rates on hold

• The MPC’s new guidance leaves us comfortable reiterating our call for a December rate cut.
• Rate-setters also point to a slower pace of cuts next year as Bank Rate approaches neutral…
• ...And room for only one more cut after December, unless GDP growth turns out weaker-than-expected.

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, ASEAN, October 2025

• In one line: The post-“Liberation Day” recovery in sentiment continues.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, France, September 2025

In one line: Rock-solid, but momentum is now slowing.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 5 November 2025

Local private demand let the Indonesia economy down in Q3
The post-“Liberation Day” recovery in ASEAN manufacturing sentiment continues
Outright Thai deflation still has a number of months left
Softer food and firmer housing & utilities inflation in the Philippines offset each other

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, September 2025

In one line: A rebound, but what happened to output in September?

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 5 November 2025: RatingDog PMI points to efficiency gains

Efficiency gains help profits but hurt labour demand

PM Datanote: Industrial Production, Brazil, September, 2025

• In one line: Under pressure, but conditions likely will improve in Q1.

UK Datanote: UK Final Manufacturing PMI, October 2025

• In one line: Reopening after the cyber attack boosts the manufacturing PMI, but the outlook remains challenging.

6 November 2025 US Monitor Exports are struggling, despite the weaker dollar

• Goods exports are struggling, as foreign firms run down the inventory they amassed earlier this year.
• Services exports are flailing too, despite strong demand for software; US politics has put off tourists.
• Data centre construction is surging, but it is too small to provide much a of boost to the sector at large.

6 November 2025 LatAm Monitor Mixed performance with Andean currencies appreciating despite political noise

• Brazilian Real —  Slips modestly on global headwinds
• Colombian Peso — Choppy gains as carry holds
• Chilean Peso — Political clarity and BCCh caution

6 November 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor The real stories behind another 5% GDP print for Indonesia in Q3

• GDP growth in Indonesia slipped minimally in Q3, to 5.0% from 5.1% in Q2, in line with our forecast…
• …The main cause of the dip was softer private local demand; the Q2 pop in equipment capex is fading.
• Private consumption is facing more headwinds, with real wage growth falling back into the red.

6 November 2025 China+ Monitor China's falling saving rate not enough to revamp growth model

• China’s household saving rate has fallen, implying greater readiness for consumption spending...
• ...But not by enough to make up for the slump in residential sales since 2019; no wonder demand is soft.
• The October RatingDog services PMI reports efficiency gains; good for profits, but bad for jobs short term.

6 November 2025 Eurozone Monitor Surveys suggest German industry is doing fine, but is it?

• German factory orders rebounded in September, but the underlying trend in growth is still flat. 
• Sales data signal downside risk to German industrial output, but they failed to capture the August plunge. 
• Manufacturing in France is soaring, helped by aerospace, but surveys warn of a fall in early Q4.