A big jump in services inflation still looks unlikely.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
In one line: Back above zero, but unlikely to stay there for long.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Back above zero, but unlikely to stay there for long.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Implausible sector breakdown highlights ADP's uselessness.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Manufacturing slumps as mining props up output.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The HKMA intervened again on Wednesday to defend the currency peg, which has been in place since 1983.
- The LERS is a double-edged sword: Hong Kong loses monetary policy freedom but gains stability.
- Any talk of re-pegging the HKD is premature; China and HKSAR are not yet an Optimal Currency Area.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Headline inflation in Switzerland rose above zero in June, by 0.2pp to 0.1%.
- It will fall back again in July, to zero, where we expect it to hold steady until Q4.
- Our forecasts remain well below the SNB’s; another rate cut in September, to -0.25%, is still likely.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- U-turns scorch the Chancellor’s fiscal headroom, and appetite for corrective action seems limited.
- We expect ‘stealth tax’ hikes, some of which boost inflation, and a fudge of the fiscal rules in the Budget.
- The PMI and DMP show better growth and slower inflation, but we expect only one more rate cut in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Up a touch because of an increase in Italy’s unemployment rate.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
WEAK JOBS PUSHING THE MPC TO AN AUGUST CUT...
- …BUT ONLY ONE MORE CUT THIS YEAR IS THE RIGHT CALL
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Supply-side disruptions giving way to weak demand.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
In one line: Supply-side disruptions giving way to weak demand
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)Global
- In one line: Growth holding up, but momentum set to slow in H2.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Growth holding up, but momentum set to slow in H2.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The average effective tariff rate will rise by a further 6pp next week, if no new trade deals are signed.
- But we doubt these additional tariffs will last; retaliation by trade partners will spur another climbdown.
- The construction slump signals weaker growth in activity and employment, but likely not a recession
Samuel TombsUS
- Brazilian Real — Rebound tests fiscal resolve
- Mexican Peso — Rally faces growing headwinds
- Colombian Peso — Currency strength facing fiscal test
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- A glass-half-full perspective indicates that the stars are aligned for a “beautiful releveraging” in the EZ.
- The EZ economy is completing a soft landing, an important prerequisite for a beautiful releveraging.
- Germany leading from the front is a key condition for a growth-supporting leverage cycle in the Eurozone.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect GDP to rise 0.1% month-to-month in May, as professional services activity rebounds.
- We still look for quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.2% in Q2, below the MPC’s latest projection, 0.3%.
- We remain upbeat on underlying growth, partly supporting our call for just one more rate cut in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: June’s increase will more than reverse in July.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: June’s increase will more than reverse in July.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
