Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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In one line: As expected, and further tightening is likely.
War hit to Indonesian retail sales is here, and we've likely not seen the worst of it
HOUSE PRICES DIP IN MARCH...
- ...AND ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SUBDUED THROUGHOUT 2026
- Headline inflation has hit a three-year high, but we see few signs of increasing underlying pressures.
- The energy shock will lift core goods prices in the coming months, but shelter inflation will cool.
- Slowing wage growth suggests a sustained climb in inflation for core services ex-rent is unlikely.
- The rebound in Mexico’s industry eases recession fears, but manufacturing activity is far from a boom.
- Services remain Brazil’s main growth engine, supported by resilient domestic demand…
- …But persistent inflation and softer surveys suggest services growth will moderate further.
- BI shocked with an off-cycle 25bp hike this week, likely removing the need for another one next week.
- Its Fed and C/A views are overly bearish, while the foreign equity rout may be just a one-off adjustment.
- Retail sales growth crashed into the red in April, somewhat unfairly, but the worst is still to come.
- Chinese satellite imagery concurs with April’s activity slump, with urban luminosity falling on an annual basis.
- May’s activity data are likely to stay weak, weighed down by soft domestic demand, though better than April.
- Fiscal deposit deployment may support May’s FAI, while spending faces payback effects from trade-in policies.
- The ECB hiked, and Ms. Lagarde struck a hawkish tone, backed by punchy new inflation forecasts.
- We’re maintaining our view of a back-to-back hike in July, though it remains a close call.
- The ECB is worried that a prolonged energy inflation shock is now driving second-round effects.
- Andy Burnham is extremely likely to become the next prime minister if he wins the Makerfield by-election.
- But a raft of U-turns even before he has reached Number 10 leave us with little sense of a ‘grand plan’.
- We see inflation risks, from either higher taxes and spending, or borrowing-funded spending.
In one line: Boosted once again by capital goods.
- Headline inflation has hit a three-year high, but we see few signs of increasing underlying pressures.
- The energy shock will lift core goods prices in the coming months, but shelter inflation will cool.
- Slowing wage growth suggests a sustained climb in inflation for core services ex-rent is unlikely.
- Brazil — Fiscal worries cap upside
- Mexico — Rally pauses as investors reassess risks
- Colombia — Elections dominate the equity story
- We expect the MPC to vote seven-to-two to hold Bank Rate, with a risk that only Huw Pill votes for a hike.
- Dovish data-flow since the last MPC meeting means that guidance will shift towards being more balanced.
- But rate-setters still need to validate the market curve to maintain tight enough financial conditions.
- We expect the MPC to vote seven-to-two to hold Bank Rate, with a risk that only Huw Pill votes for a hike.
- Dovish data-flow since the last MPC meeting means that guidance will shift towards being more balanced.
- But rate-setters still need to validate the market curve to maintain tight enough financial conditions.
- In one line: Inflation eased in May, but persistent services inflation will keep Banxico cautious.
- In one line: Inflation eased in May, but persistent services inflation will keep Banxico cautious.
In one line: Looking good for a Q2 rebound in manufacturing.
In one line: Shipments of integrated circuits and computers main drivers of export growth
Crude oil import volume falling
- US - Four notes of caution over the recent upturn in payrolls
- EUROZONE - ECB set to end year-long policy hiatus this week with a 25bp hike
- UK - Money and credit review: few signs of a hit to activity from Iran war
- CHINA+ - China tightens oversight of outbound investment and capital flows
- EM ASIA - War noise unlikely to stop Vietnam’s exports from flying higher in Q3
- LATAM - El Niño adds new inflation risks to LatAm, but hit differs widely
- The plunge in NFIB hiring intentions in May casts doubt over the recent turnaround in payrolls.
- Capex intentions also are very depressed, suggesting large parts of the economy are struggling.
- May’s jump in existing home sales probably is a false dawn: demand is too weak for a sustained recovery.
