Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
In one line: On track for around 2.5% in May.
Fallout from the war adding to the pressures on homebuilders.
Retailers’ healthy margins suggest tariff pass-though now complete.
Small business capex plans drop to a post-GFC low.
- In one line: Job market stable in March, but high inflation will weigh on employment in 2026.
- In one line: BRC sales flattered by early Easter in March, growth will slow in April.
- A huge leap in nominal sales of gasoline likely meant a strong March headline retail sales print.
- Core sales probably also were supported by big tax refunds and unseasonably warm weather.
- We still expect the hit to real incomes from higher gas prices to mean a weak Q2 for consumers.
- Brazil — Election tightens as fiscal loosening intensifies
- Argentina — Reform agenda faces judicial limits
- Colombia — Run-off maths dominate
- China’s trade surplus narrowed sharply in March, as import strength outpaced exports, hit by payback.
- The import surge was led by high-tech items, with price effects outweighing geopolitical energy dynamics.
- Exports were distorted by LNY effects, but underlying momentum was notably weaker for the Global South.
- Industrial production in the Eurozone likely fell in Q1, despite a strong finish to the quarter.
- Our nowcast model points to downside risk to EZ GDP in Q1, but we still see a 0.2% increase, just.
- Recession risks remained low at the end of Q1, but how will the surveys look in Q2?
- We expect CPI inflation to accelerate to 3.3% in March from 3.0% in February.
- Services inflation should hold at 4.3%, as the early-Easter airfares boost is offset by weaker hotel prices.
- Lower oil prices mean we are close to removing our call for the MPC to hike Bank Rate once this year.
Sales going nowhere fast.
- US - The fading tariff hit will overwhelm oil’s impact on core inflation
- EUROZONE - Energy shock’s hit to growth in Spain and Italy will mainly start from Q2
- UK - GDP likely trending up before the war in Iran
- CHINA+ - Iran war hits China via trade channel, but with limited impact
- EM ASIA - Vietnam’s solid Q1 GDP may be as good as it gets in 2026
- LATAM - Chile’s growth stalling, but BCCh is stuck on hold
- The 0.1% rise in the March core PPI masked heat in components which feed into the core PCE deflator...
- ...But inflation still look set to fall in H2 as the uplift from tariffs fades, offsetting the energy price boost.
- The fall in the capex intentions index of the NFIB survey to a post-GFC low is most likely noise.
- Colombia’s fiscal anchor has gone, as deficits, rising debt and weak revenues undermine credibility.
- Inflation pressures are persistent and broader, forcing BanRep to tighten despite growth already softening.
- COP resilience looks fragile, with markets likely to drive a correction via interest rates and FX.
- Germany is cutting fuel duty, which will likely shave 0.3pp off inflation in April and May.
- EZ house-price growth will slow this year, but which countries will drive the slowdown?…
- …Slowing house-price growth is a downside risk to consumers’ spending, but less so than pre-Covid.
- We expect CPI inflation to accelerate to 3.3% in March from 3.0% in February.
- Rocketing motor-fuel prices account for almost all of the increase in inflation.
- We now expect inflation to peak at 3.5% in September, from 3.7% previously, as oil prices have fallen back.
In one line: Private sector credit showing early but uneven improvement
- The data available so far point to GDP growth a bit below 2% in the first quarter.
- Consumption was soft and net trade was a big drag, but government spending rebounded.
- Residual seasonality probably explains only a fraction of the slow underlying momentum last quarter.
- The shock from Camisea disruption and higher oil prices drives broad-based inflation pressures in Peru.
- The core inflation spike signals wider cost pressures, raising risks of persistence and second-round effects.
- The BCRP is likely to stay on hold, but risks are now tilted towards tightening sooner than expected.
