A few more months of modest Thai deflation on the cards
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Philippine inflation still comfortably below the BSP’s range
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Thai household debt has shrunk for the first time in over 20 years, but its ratio to GDP is still very high…
- …Consumer NPLs resumed their rise in Q1 after a Q4 stall; bad initial news for “You Fight, We Help”.
- Philippine inflation inched up in June; the low-CPI environment is yet to lift confidence meaningfully.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Expect a further rise in food inflation in the July report.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Export growth probably will buckle again in Q3.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Post-export-front-loading clouds continue to darken.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
Post-export-front-loading clouds for ASEAN continue to darken
Indonesian export growth probably will buckle again in Q3
Expect a further rise in Indonesian food inflation in the July report
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI deteriorated further in June, and all signs point to more near-term falls.
- Indonesian export growth is in for a rockier H2, in spite of evidence of stabilising demand from China.
- Consumer sectors were to blame for India’s poor May IP; that’s a double whammy for the economy.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Consumer-facing industries are buckling.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Consumer-facing industries are buckling.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Retail sales growth in Thailand is still at an absurdly-high double-digit rate; ignoring the rosy headlines…
- …The monthly consumption index remains weak, and fading confidence points to more downside.
- Consumption looks set to continue rising, though, as wages recover alongside productivity.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A bump in the road for the uptrend in real Philippine import demand
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We no longer expect the SBV to restart cuts, with the worst-case tariff scenario looking less likely…
- …Plus, credit growth is already soaring and the authorities won’t want to risk rocking the VND further.
- Philippine household savings recovered more substantially in 2024, but the Covid hole remains huge.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
THE RBI—RIGHTLY—ISN’T BUYING THIS ‘RECOVERY’
- …CRACKS SHOWING IN THE EXPORT FRONT-LOADING STORY
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BoT yesterday left the policy rate steady after two consecutive cuts, in line with our expectation.
- The MPC’s worst fears at the April meeting have been averted, leading to an upgrade to its GDP call.
- We maintain that 1.75% is the terminal rate, though the risks are still clearly skewed to the downside.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s flash PMIs for June were robust, but note they remain susceptible to huge downgrades…
- …And they’re still down year-over-year in Q2, indicating big downside risk to GDP forecasts.
- Other details show waning optimism over the long run, and downward pressure building on core CPI.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A strong finish to India’s Q2, if June's flash PMIs hold
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
