Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
- In what was a coin-toss meeting, the BSP tightened the target reverse repo rate by 25bp to 4.50%…
- …It raised its CPI forecast to above 4% for 2027; we doubt inflation will be this bad or persistent.
- India’s PMIs rebounded partially in April from the March shock, but the broad trend is still weak.
- In one line: Another month, another hold, as global assumptions are downgraded further.
- In one line: Another month, another hold, as global assumptions are downgraded further.
- BI remained on hold for a seventh straight meeting; the consensus, like us, now expects a long pause.
- BI’s attention remains on IDR stability, for now, but the speed of the sell-off so far is manageable.
- We agree with the Bank that the IDR is looking undervalued; it should start to find its feet next year.
- The H2 oil outlook is still largely improving, but normalising food CPI remains the issue in India…
- …Reassuringly, inflation expectations are still subdued, and firms are set to swallow higher costs.
- Taiwanese export growth surprised substantially in March, with electronics still flying.
- In one line: Grim end to an already forgetful Q1; glaring war impact on fertiliser output.
- In one line: Keeping calm and carrying on with a sensible pause.
RBI is keeping calm and carrying on with a sensible pause
- The RBI stayed on hold, as expected, while its new CPI outlook already looks dated, post-ceasefire…
- …A smaller diesel-price hike is now likely, and food gains have peaked; we see 2026 CPI at 3.7%.
- Taiwan’s inflation fell more than expected in March; the CBC‘s red line looks secure, for now.
- In one line: The bigger jolt will come in April.
Oil surge leads to an immediate breach of the BSP’s target range
Recovering domestic demand will soon hit a brick wall
- GDP growth in Vietnam cooled just a tad in Q1, to 8.0% from 8.3%, if stripping out residual seasonality.
- We still see full-year 2026 growth moderating to 7.5%; high export base effects are now in the frame.
- This oil shock is looking worse for Vietnam than the one in 2022; we’ve raised our 2026 CPI call to 4.8%.
- Indonesia made a host of current spending cuts last week, but we still think a fuel-price hike is likely.
- Real GST growth in India held steady in March, indicating no rapid hit from the war or INR fallout.
- We’ve raised our 2026 inflation forecast for Thailand further, to 1.3%, given the latest diesel-price rise.
- In one line: A swift return to BI’s target range thanks to base effects.
- In one line: Trade surplus and exports will soon see brighter days.
- In one line: Iran war hits most factories hard; price shock immediate and big.
Iran war hits most ASEAN factories hard; price shock immediate and big
Indonesia’s trade surplus and exports will soon see brighter days
A swift return to BI’s target range thanks to base effects
- Stagflationary signs were seen in ASEAN’s PMI, as in India, but inflation is a bigger worry for the former.
- Indonesia’s soft March CPI is a big misdirect; we now see an eventual fuel price hike of 5% this year…
- …February’s export print was a let-down, but should mark the year’s low, as commodities will soon help.
- In one line: Underlying spending growth was still in recovery mode pre-Iran war.
- India’s Feb. IP validates our above-consensus call, but the post-GST pop in consumer goods is done…
- …Output looks poised to hit a wall in March; last week’s fuel-tax cuts buy consumers time, not relief.
- Thai consumption was having a decent Q1 pre-war, amid an easing in structural high-debt headwinds.
