Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line: An insurance hike, on top of last week's off-cycle insurance hike.
- In one line: An insurance hike, on top of last week's off-cycle insurance hike.
- In one line: Still anxious about inflation, in spite of recent positive developments.
- In one line: Still anxious about inflation, in spite of recent positive developments.
- In one line: Activity holds up, but signs of cooling are emerging.
- In one line: Activity holds up, but signs of cooling are emerging.
- BI is becoming more certain that the Fed will hike, pointing to one more rate rise, though we disagree.
- The BSP’s higher CPI forecasts are bemusing, but it’s now rightly mulling an end to tightening.
- The CBC holds, as expected, while also still seeing 2026 average CPI staying below the key 2% mark.
- The SNB left its key policy rate unchanged at 0.00%, despite raising its inflation forecasts.
- Our 2027 inflation forecasts are still higher than the Bank’s; we think a rate hike is likely in 2027.
- Uncertainty around our call is high and financial markets expect a rate hike later than we do.
- Most rate-setters want an extended Bank Rate hold, though Catherine Mann is weighing a “forceful” hike.
- Risks of a hike remain higher than a cut, with the MPC attentive to upside inflation risks.
- Labour market data mostly surprised in a hawkish direction, suggesting slack is barely rising.
In one line: Still supportive of another ECB hike.
- In one line: Focus on services strength rather than a headline rate dragged down by surprising food and goods inflation slowing.
- In one line: Base effects flatter April house prices, activity will grind down in the coming months.
Singapore's NODX growth reaches a new high
- Nine FOMC participants think policy should be tightened this year; six look for more than 25bp...
- ...But no member is voting to hike yet, and all of the Board of Governors likely are in the no-change camp.
- We think the FOMC’s aim was to anchor inflation expectations solidly, thereby reducing the need to hike.
- Brazil — Security takes centre stage
- Mexico — Sovereignty push raises political risks
- Colombia — Run-off puts security centre stage
- Singapore’s non-oil domestic export growth reached an astonishing new high, at 38.4% in May…
- …And Q2 should be stronger than we had previously expected, thanks to oil exports and electronics.
- We’ve raised our 2026 current account forecast for India to -1.5% of GDP, from -3.0%, with oil receding.
- Based on current oil prices, and our forecast for the June HICP, the ECB will hold fire in July…
- …but we still think the bank will tighten by 50bp in the end, so we now see a final hike in September.
- Inflation is now on track to undershoot the ECB’s forecast this year, but not in 2027.
- Focus on solid services inflation rather than weaker- than-expected headline inflation.
- The headline inflation miss is smaller than it looks and producer prices point to goods weakness reversing.
- Underlying services inflation is slowing only gradually and remains consistent with above target inflation.
- In one line: Q2 starts weak due to tight financial conditions.
In one line: Retail sales weakened further; FAI data plagued by falsification issues again; Industrial output supported by exports
