Pantheon Publications

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 May 2026

Iran war ’saves’ Thailand from prolonged deflation
Already signs of an inflation squeeze on Philippine sales

PM Datanote: US JOLTS / ISM Services Survey

Labor demand still trending down, implying March payrolls jump was just a blip.

7 May 2026 US Monitor Supply chain fears are lifting activity, implying a longer wait for Fed easing

• Oil consumption has risen despite soaring prices; goods producers are preparing for disruptions.
• Surveys point to a bigger rise in core goods prices than implied by the rise in oil prices alone.
• We still look for a further 75bp easing but we now expect the first cut in December, not September.

7 May 2026 LatAm Monitor USD weakness and carry revive LatAm FX, but political risks are rising

• Mexican peso —  Resilient rebound as USD softens
• Colombian peso — Rally fades as policy doubts cap gains
• Chilean peso — Partial recovery as external issues ease

7 May 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor ASEAN CPI hot in April, but now likely to cool

• April CPI releases from ASEAN have so far mostly surprised to the upside, barring Indonesia…
• …We’ve raised our 2026 calls for the Philippines and Vietnam to well over 5.0%, but the oil hit is fading.
• Indonesian authorities will now likely be compelled to raise subsidised fuel prices by 5%, at least.

7 May 2026 Eurozone Monitor ECB unlikely to be bailed out by a US-Iran deal

• We doubt that a rapprochement between the US and Iran will get the ECB off the hook next month.
• Wage growth in the EZ remains subdued, but risks are tilting to the upside for next year.
• French industry and Italian retail sales ended Q1 on a solid note; the fall in EZ April PMIs is confirmed.

7 May 2026 UK Monitor Hawkish PMI shows inflation surging and growth holding up

• We will need to remove a rate hike from our forecast if the peace-plan-related energy-price fall is sustained.
• But the April PMI suggests that firms are already contending with surging inflation pressures…
• ...And resilient growth means that rate-setters must prioritise price pressures over output losses.

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, ASEAN, April 2026

• In one line: Still losing steam.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 5 May 2026

Indonesia’s sturdy Q1 GDP is only skin-deep
ASEAN manufacturing continues to lose steam
Another BSP rate hike now seems likely, however misguided
Singapore's March retail sales doesn't look as good as it does under the surface

6 May 2026 Global Monitor April US payrolls will probably underwhelm; joblessness will likely start climbing again

• US - April data to dash hopes of a labor market turnaround
• EUROZONE - The ECB will hike in June barring a miracle in global energy markets
• UK - A couple of hikes coming this year, but with more of a delay
• CHINA+ - Governor Ueda’s attempt to ‘thread the needle’ leaves currency exposed
• EM ASIA - Taiwan’s Q1 GDP growth beats all expectations, hitting 13.7%
• LATAM - COPOM’s cautious second rate cut; Chile on hold as the oil shock hits

6 May 2026 US Monitor Labor demand remains too soft to embed the energy price shock

• Weak JOLTS job openings in March push back against the theory that labor demand is picking up. 
• Soft hiring and low quits signal limited second-round inflation risk after the energy shock. 
• Mounting pressures on homebuilders suggest residential construction payrolls will start falling again.

6 May 2026 LatAm Monitor Mexico's growth stalls as domestic demand weakens; Banxico to act

• Mexico’s broad-based decline in growth in Q1 reflects weakening consumption and capex.
• A temporary Q2 rebound driven by the World Cup and seasonal factors will not sustain stronger growth.
• Limited monetary easing and fragile fiscal dynamics constrain policy support; downside risks prevail.

6 May 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Dubious leap in public spending behind Indonesia's Q1 GDP beat

• GDP growth in Indonesia set a new post-Covid high in Q1, rising further to 5.6%, against the consensus.
• But underlying the strong headline is a questionable jump in government spending; austerity incoming.
• We’ve raised our 2026 growth forecast to 5.2%, still expecting a slowdown to sub-5% rates by year-end.

6 May 2026 Eurozone Monitor Stagflation risk will keep the SNB on the sidelines this year

• Swiss inflation jumped in April, and is set to average 1% over the medium term… 
• …As second-round effects from higher energy prices will lift domestic inflation sustainably in H2.  
• The SNB will remain on the sidelines, since the energy shock is also set to hit growth.

6 May 2026 UK Monitor Market Participants Survey less dovish than Mr. Bailey argued

• MPC members argued that tighter financial conditions were doing the job of rate hikes for now.
• The Market Participants Survey in particular appears to have been influential in Governor Bailey’s view.
• But the MaPS suggests the MPC will have to hike this summer to maintain financial conditions.

PM Datanote: US New Home Sales, February/March 2026

Soft sales and high inventory point to price cuts and a drop in housing starts.

Global Datanote: Economic activity index, Chile, March, 2026

• In one line: Activity is stabilizing at the margin, but the industrial sector remains a clear drag.

PM Datanote: Economic activity index, Chile, March, 2026

• In one line: Activity is stabilizing at the margin, but the industrial sector remains a clear drag.

5 May 2026 US Monitor The AI boom won't prop up the economy all by itself

• Tech capex is booming, but not all of this spending is AI-related, and much is spent on imports. 
• We think the direct boost to GDP growth from AI investment likely is running at only around 0.2pp. 
• Consumers’ spending and non-tech investment are weak, and are in need of more policy support.