Pantheon Publications

Global Datanote: Reserve Bank of India Decision, February 2026

• In one line: The likely long pause is here. 

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 February 2026

The RBI’s likely long pause is here
Don’t buy Vietnam’s Tet-distorted January trade headlines
A more than decent start to 2026 for retail sales in Vietnam
Huge healthcare hike in January last year drops out of Vietnamese inflation
Nascent signs of a recovery in Philippine sales

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 5 February 2026

Indonesia’s dream of 6% for 2026 could become reality
Thai deflation now looks set to stick around until mid-year
Philippine inflation is back in the BSP’s range; still expecting a February cut

6 February 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Indonesia's 'hot' Q4 GDP print welcome in more ways than one

• Indonesian Q4 GDP growth beat expectations, at 5.4%, and is likely closer to 7.0% in reality…
• …Consumption is the real hero, not investment; we’ve upgraded our 2026 growth forecast to 5.1%.
• The leap in inflation in January was quite deceptive; calm food prices force us to cut our 2026 call.

4 February 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor India's low-key budget a sign of the times, and generally welcome

• India’s 2026/27 budget is the least restrictive we’ve seen in years, seeing a trivial deficit consolidation…
• …to 4.3% of GDP; an achievable target in our view, given the natural capex ceiling and realistic tax goal.
• The start of a new anchor—debt-to-GDP—will mean faster consolidation from 2027/28 though.

Global Datanote: CPI, Indonesia, January 2026

• In one line: A deceptively soft headline.

Global Datanote: Trade, Indonesia, December 2025

• In one line: Two-way trade ends 2025 on a solid note.

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, ASEAN, January 2026

• In one line: Sturdy momentum is holding up.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 2 February 2026

Sturdy manufacturing momentum in ASEAN is holding up
Two-way trade in Indonesia ends 2025 on a solid note
A deceptively soft January headline CPI print in Indonesia

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, November 2025

• In one line: Returning to earth, again; other, more credible data show a decent Q4.

2 February 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Ins-and-outs of Indonesia's equity market collapse; a good entry point?

• Indonesia’s soaring equities sold off sharply last week, threatened with a downgrade to ‘frontier’…
• …Fundamentally, the correction seems harsh, from the standpoint of improving ‘real’ economic activity.
• Thailand’s election at the end of this week still looks set to result in a fragile coalition government.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 29 January 2026

Anti-graft drive drags Philippine growth down to weakest in nearly 15 years

Global Datanote: IP, India, December 2025

• In one line: An unexpected—if narrow—jump to a 26-month high.

EM Asia Datanote: IP, India, December 2025

• In one line: An unexpected—if narrow—jump to a 26-month high.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 27 January 2026

Sagging Philippine imports—masked by base effects—is the real story

30 January 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Even 5% GDP growth this year now looks unlikely for the Philippines

• The Philippines’ Q4 GDP was grim, with growth plummeting to just 3.0%, from 3.9% in Q3…
• …We’ve yet to see signs of a bottom in investment-related indicators, while consumption remains soft.
• We’ve cut our already-below-consensus GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 4.8%, from 5.0%.

January 2026 Emerging Asia Chartbook

EM ASIA EXPORTERS END 2025 WITH A GDP BANG

• …WE RAISE OUR 2026 INDIA CPI FORECAST TO OVER 4%

29 January 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor India's strong, but narrow, Dec. IP; EU FTA an insurance policy

• Private firms are turning more optimistic about profits, with good reason, but only in certain sectors...
• ...The AI boom, green energy transition and industrial upgrading are lifting profits for related sectors.
• But Q4 consumer sentiment remained glum, indicating continued sluggish domestic demand this year.

27 January 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor DM shining on more fronts, but Q4 still soft for Thai exports

• Thai customs exports easily beat expectations in December, with growth returning to double digits…
• …Soaring US demand is getting more help from the DM world, while shipments elsewhere are lagging.
• On balance, it looks like net trade will hit Q4 GDP hard, especially with imports bouncing strongly.

EM Asia Datanote: Customs Trade, Thailand, December 2025

• In one line: Exports end 2025 with a bang; those to the US continue to defy gravity.