Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Electronic exports in Singapore continue to boom
Little to cheer for homebuilders.
Underlying manufacturing output still looks anemic.
- In one line: Big short-term downside risks to the deficit due to the Iran war.
- FOMC participants will lift their Q4 forecasts for both core PCE inflation and the unemployment rate.
- The median participant likely will still expect 25bp easing this year, but risks are skewed to no cuts.
- We still look for 75bp easing, but have pushed back our forecast for the first cut to September.
- Economic activity in Brazil began the year on a solid footing, but the upturn is still uneven.
- Higher oil prices improve the external balance but risk reigniting inflation pressures.
- The COPOM faces a delicate balance between stabilising growth and preserving inflation credibility.
- China’s activity data for the first two months of this year paint a brighter picture than we expected...
- ...But stronger consumption is largely a temporary effect of higher spending during the extended holiday.
- Policy-supported infrastructure investment rebounded earlier than we expected; property sector is still weak.
- The conflict in the Middle East pits energy prices and the CHF in a tug of war over Swiss imported inflation.
- A prolonged conflict would push headline CPI to the middle of the SNB’s inflation target range this year.
- The SNB will leave interest rates unchanged on Thursday, and also throughout 2026.
- Erratic falls in equipment manufacturing and mining kept GDP unchanged month-to-month in January.
- We lower our forecast for quarter-to-quarter GDP growth in Q1 to 0.2%, from 0.3% previously.
- War in Iran is a serious downside risk to activity, but we expect slower growth rather than a sudden stop.
China's consumer spending was boosted by longer holiday
infrastructure investment rebounds thanks to policy support
Industrial output lifted by export demand
Iran war forcing an upgrade to our 2026 India WPI forecast to 5%
- In one line: Households thought weaker inflation trends would be only temporary, and expectations will jump sharply now energy prices have surged.
- In one line: Higher energy costs will weigh on the trade balance.
- In one line:January disappointment partly driven by erratic sectors that will rebound, but we shave our Q1 growth call to 0.2% quarter-to-quarter.
In one line: Higher energy costs will make a bad situation worse.
In one line: On track for 2% by May.
- January was the fifth straight month of sub-0.3% gains in real consumption; the worst since 2012.
- Oil prices will squeeze real incomes by 11/4% if they are sustained at $100, or 1/2% if they follow futures.
- Households lack the balance sheet strength to brush this aside; spending will grow only modestly.
- Mexico’s industrial output fell sharply in January as key sub-sectors weakened simultaneously.
- Soft external demand, tight financial conditions and policy uncertainty continue to weigh on activity.
- Infrastructure spending and US supply-chain integration will likely support a gradual recovery in H2.
- Introducing our regional activity heat maps, giving a snapshot of cyclical growth stage and momentum…
- …They show that major exporters continue to outperform domestic-oriented peers in early 2026.
- Indian inflation rose further in February on food prices; our 4.0% view for 2026 remains appropriate.
- We expect little improvement in China’s consumption activity in January-to-February in the data out today...
- ...Falling car sales should off set higher holiday spending, while the FAI improvement will be slow.
- Government-bond issuance continues to prop up broad credit growth; corporate credit should edge up.
