Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Q3 SHOULD BE THE PEAK IN INDIA’S ABSURD GDP DATA
- …TAIWANESE EXPORTS SHOWING NO SIGN OF PAUSING
Likely a high watermark for now.
Manufacturing capex and hiring likely to remain very weak
- In one line: Historic leap in gold imports in October unwinds dramatically.
- Core CPI inflation likely fell to 2.9% in November, slightly below consensus, from 3.0% in September.
- Auto prices have remained unaffected by tariffs; increases in other goods prices have slowed.
- The rebound in airline fares probably has petered out; rent increases likely continue to slow gradually.
- A landslide election resets Chile’s political cycle, restoring a pro-market-reform agenda.
- Early fiscal consolidation, tax reform and deregulation will test credibility and sustain the market rally.
- The benign macro backdrop and BCCh easing create a narrow window to lift capex and potential growth.
- China’s November activity data point to slowing goods consumption but steady services spending.
- Still-falling fixed asset investment has yet to benefit from the quasi-fiscal-stimulus funding support.
- Policymakers will proceed cautiously on tackling the reasons for the weak demand, amid bright exports.
- Our spot forecasts for EZ GDP have outperformed the consensus and the ECB so far this year…
- …We have improved our EZ inflation forecasts by incorporating our new energy model.
- We misjudged the dovishness of the new SNB Chairman, affecting our forecasting track record.
- Official house prices fell in September, and we think activity will remain weak in Q4…
- ...But the private-sector house price indices are rising again, and surveyors are becoming more optimistic.
- So, we look for house price inflation of 3.0% in Q4 2026, up from 2.25% in Q4 2025.
In one line: A decent start to Q4.
China's November activity data show goods consumption softening and fixed asset investment worsening
Upstream food price pressures in India are reviving more noticeably
- In one line: Muddied by residual seasonality, but vegetable-price pressures are reviving.
- In one line: Muddied by residual seasonality, but vegetable-price pressures are reviving.
In one line: still looking for signs of private sector credit demand
In one line: Unrevised, lowest in the big four.
In one line: A fall is coming in January.
Malaysian retail sales are pretty static, again.
- GDP disappointed expectations, falling 0.1% month-to-month in October, as services output fell sharply.
- Autos production will boost activity in November, and a number of erratic falls should rebound...
- This week’s data have a high bar to keep the MPC on hold, but little room remains to keep cutting in 2026.
- EZ inflation and GDP growth have both come in above the ECB’s September estimates lately.
- The ECB is set to revise up its forecasts but keep rates and other policy settings unchanged this week.
- Chances of additional rate cuts are retreating; the ECB easing cycle is over.
