Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
A bounce of sorts, but ASEAN manufacturing is still shaky
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI bounced post-“Liberation Day ” but was still below 50 in May, at 49.2…
- …The region’s outperformers—Singapore and the Philippines—lost steam, giving a smaller cushion.
- Forward-looking indicators continue to sour, but at least inflation pressures are receding still.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The dramatic collapse in Indonesia’s trade surplus in April was down in large part to seasonal noise…
- …Underlying the emerging down-shift are struggling exports and a welcome recovery in imports.
- We have cut our 2025 CPI forecast to 1.5%, in view of the soft May data and the coming utilities relief.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Near-zero inflation is once again around the corner.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: A partially welcome collapse in the surplus.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
A partially welcome collapse in Indonesia’s trade surplus
Near-zero inflation is once again around the corner
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Boosted by investment, which can’t be relied upon post-“Liberation Day”.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Disregard completely; household spending is still weakening.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The April collapse in Philippine imports in context
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in India easily beat expectations in Q1, rising to a one-year high of 7.4%, thanks to capex …
- …But the investment outlook has only darkened since, and all the other Q1 details were weak.
- We have nevertheless raised our downbeat 2025 GDP growth forecast to 6.8%, from 5.8%.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s decent April IP is not without its flaws; growth is now tanking at the margin…
- …This emerging softness is due to falling consumer non-durables, masked by flying capital goods.
- Blame seasonal noise for Thailand’s biggest trade deficit in over two years, but US demand is sliding.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwanese retail sales outright contracted in April, due to a drop in discretionary spending…
- …Consumer confidence surveys are turning sour, which will be bad news for already weak spending.
- Malaysian inflation held steady in April; while low, it could be artificially depressed by price controls.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Indian services push the Q2 recovery forward in May
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Back in business; at least 75bp in more cuts to come this year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Back in business; at least 75bp in more cuts to come this year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Our final forecast for India’s Q1 GDP report sees a dip to 6.0% from 6.2%, below the consensus, 6.7%…
- …The big boost from net trade in Q4 should vanish fully, offset partly by improved local private demand.
- The PMIs suggest the job market is rapidly heating up again, but we still see no hard data confirmation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: An abysmal start to Q2, but support from energy has been fading for a few months.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Bank Indonesia resumed easing, with a 25bp cut; the Q1 GDP letdown was even graver in actuality.
- The Board’s lower credit growth forecast is already looking too optimistic; we see 75bp more in cuts.
- US and ASEAN front-loading continues to mask weak Chinese demand for Malaysian exports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in Thailand slipped modestly in Q1, to 3.1% from 3.3%, with exports giving a big cushion…
- …But our global forecasts point to goods export growth slowing below 2% by Q4, from nearly 14%.
- This will increasingly expose headline GDP growth to the broad-based sluggishness domestically.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Pre-“Liberation Day” anxieties were there for all to see in Thailand’s Q1
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
