Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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In one line: Korea's exports continue to surge thanks to chip shipments, notably soaring prices
- In one line: Deputy Governor Himono warns of potential inflation overshoot
In one line: Consumer inflation was flat at 1.4% in May, but producer inflation jumped. Deputy Governor Himono warns that inflation could overshoot the 2% target.
Inflation risks seems to have passed in Malaysia
Export growth soars, once again
- In one line: A hold, as widely expected.
- NFIB, Indeed, LinkUp, Census Bureau and regional Fed hiring indicators have all dropped in Q2.
- We see no evidence of a World Cup boost to payrolls in Homebase’s daily, city-level data yet.
- First estimates of private payrolls will be back in a 50-to-100K range soon, lifting unemployment.
- Brazil’s Copom delivered another cut, but inflation forecasts and expectations deteriorate further.
- Activity remains resilient, reducing the urgency for deeper rate cuts despite restrictive policy.
- Additional easing remains likely, though risks increasingly point towards a shallower cycle.
- Malaysian exports soared more than most analysts were expecting, as growth hit 45.3% in May…
- …Electronics exports and petroleum export revenue growth is likely to moderate in the coming quarters.
- We think inflation has peaked, as it rose to just 2.0% in May, below the 2.1% consensus.
- The BoJ is paying more attention to the 6.3% rise in May producer inflation than subdued consumer inflation.
- Deputy Governor Himono signalled a faster pace of rate hikes, given likely faster cost pass-though to CPI.
- This makes a September or October rate increase more likely than December.
- EV batteries are not included in the 70% content requirement for an EV to be ‘Made in Europe’.
- Local sourcing requirements risk making EU cars more expensive just when they need to be cheaper.
- The EU’s subsidies for buyers are no match for China’s subsidies for manufacturers.
- Andy Burnham is almost certain to become the UK’s next prime minister, but the timeline remains cloudy.
- Timing may prevent an expansionary Budget in 2026, but gilts have rightly priced in longer term fiscal risks.
- Underlying services inflation is slowing at a glacial pace while the labour market steadied in April/May.
- In one line: An insurance hike, on top of last week's off-cycle insurance hike.
- In one line: An insurance hike, on top of last week's off-cycle insurance hike.
- In one line: Still anxious about inflation, in spite of recent positive developments.
- In one line: Still anxious about inflation, in spite of recent positive developments.
- In one line: Activity holds up, but signs of cooling are emerging.
- In one line: Activity holds up, but signs of cooling are emerging.
- BI is becoming more certain that the Fed will hike, pointing to one more rate rise, though we disagree.
- The BSP’s higher CPI forecasts are bemusing, but it’s now rightly mulling an end to tightening.
- The CBC holds, as expected, while also still seeing 2026 average CPI staying below the key 2% mark.
- The SNB left its key policy rate unchanged at 0.00%, despite raising its inflation forecasts.
- Our 2027 inflation forecasts are still higher than the Bank’s; we think a rate hike is likely in 2027.
- Uncertainty around our call is high and financial markets expect a rate hike later than we do.
- Most rate-setters want an extended Bank Rate hold, though Catherine Mann is weighing a “forceful” hike.
- Risks of a hike remain higher than a cut, with the MPC attentive to upside inflation risks.
- Labour market data mostly surprised in a hawkish direction, suggesting slack is barely rising.
