Pantheon Publications

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 5 May 2026

Indonesia’s sturdy Q1 GDP is only skin-deep
ASEAN manufacturing continues to lose steam
Another BSP rate hike now seems likely, however misguided
Singapore's March retail sales doesn't look as good as it does under the surface

6 May 2026 Global Monitor April US payrolls will probably underwhelm; joblessness will likely start climbing again

• US - April data to dash hopes of a labor market turnaround
• EUROZONE - The ECB will hike in June barring a miracle in global energy markets
• UK - A couple of hikes coming this year, but with more of a delay
• CHINA+ - Governor Ueda’s attempt to ‘thread the needle’ leaves currency exposed
• EM ASIA - Taiwan’s Q1 GDP growth beats all expectations, hitting 13.7%
• LATAM - COPOM’s cautious second rate cut; Chile on hold as the oil shock hits

6 May 2026 US Monitor Labor demand remains too soft to embed the energy price shock

• Weak JOLTS job openings in March push back against the theory that labor demand is picking up. 
• Soft hiring and low quits signal limited second-round inflation risk after the energy shock. 
• Mounting pressures on homebuilders suggest residential construction payrolls will start falling again.

6 May 2026 LatAm Monitor Mexico's growth stalls as domestic demand weakens; Banxico to act

• Mexico’s broad-based decline in growth in Q1 reflects weakening consumption and capex.
• A temporary Q2 rebound driven by the World Cup and seasonal factors will not sustain stronger growth.
• Limited monetary easing and fragile fiscal dynamics constrain policy support; downside risks prevail.

6 May 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Dubious leap in public spending behind Indonesia's Q1 GDP beat

• GDP growth in Indonesia set a new post-Covid high in Q1, rising further to 5.6%, against the consensus.
• But underlying the strong headline is a questionable jump in government spending; austerity incoming.
• We’ve raised our 2026 growth forecast to 5.2%, still expecting a slowdown to sub-5% rates by year-end.

6 May 2026 Eurozone Monitor Stagflation risk will keep the SNB on the sidelines this year

• Swiss inflation jumped in April, and is set to average 1% over the medium term… 
• …As second-round effects from higher energy prices will lift domestic inflation sustainably in H2.  
• The SNB will remain on the sidelines, since the energy shock is also set to hit growth.

6 May 2026 UK Monitor Market Participants Survey less dovish than Mr. Bailey argued

• MPC members argued that tighter financial conditions were doing the job of rate hikes for now.
• The Market Participants Survey in particular appears to have been influential in Governor Bailey’s view.
• But the MaPS suggests the MPC will have to hike this summer to maintain financial conditions.

PM Datanote: US New Home Sales, February/March 2026

Soft sales and high inventory point to price cuts and a drop in housing starts.

Global Datanote: Economic activity index, Chile, March, 2026

• In one line: Activity is stabilizing at the margin, but the industrial sector remains a clear drag.

PM Datanote: Economic activity index, Chile, March, 2026

• In one line: Activity is stabilizing at the margin, but the industrial sector remains a clear drag.

5 May 2026 US Monitor The AI boom won't prop up the economy all by itself

• Tech capex is booming, but not all of this spending is AI-related, and much is spent on imports. 
• We think the direct boost to GDP growth from AI investment likely is running at only around 0.2pp. 
• Consumers’ spending and non-tech investment are weak, and are in need of more policy support. 

5 May 2026 LatAm Monitor BanRep holds rates, but rising inflation risk keeps policy restrictive

• BanRep’s unanimous hold risks misinterpretation as inflation rises; the policy stance is behind the curve.
• Rising expectations and resilient demand expose insufficient tightening, reinforcing the need for more.
• Fiscal slippage and market repricing tighten conditions independently, increasing pressure ahead.

5 May 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Heat map check: war hitting India fast; big exporters mostly unfazed

• Our heat maps show only India is feeling the war’s pinch, highlighting its Middle East exposure…
• …By contrast, the main exporters are still going strong; no signs yet of the chip boom losing steam.
• The RBI’s surveys show Indian consumer sentiment is already wobbling even without fuel-price rises.

5 May 2026 China+ Monitor China's April manufacturing PMIs hint at front-loading by exporters

• China’s manufacturing PMIs held up well in April, despite the disruption from the war in the Middle East.
• This resilience should continue in the near term, though exports are likely to slow as global demand fades.
• The weak construction PMI likely reflects bad weather; the infrastructure investment rebound should continue.

5 May 2026 Eurozone Monitor Week in preview: robust German industry and rising Swiss inflation

• Swiss inflation likely rose further at the start of Q2, lifted primarily by higher inflation in import prices.
• German manufacturing data for March should reveal gains in both production and new orders.
• Retail sales in the EZ fell in March, but we think the German headline will be revised higher next month.

5 May 2026 UK Monitor Forecast review: closed Strait and "active" MPC mean hikes

• The activity data since our last forecast review have been solid, implying little damage from the Iran war...
• ...So firms’ pricing pressure looks strong to us, and the soft data point to a quick passthrough of higher costs.
• We now look for two 25bp hikes to Bank Rate this year, with three cuts to come across 2027 and 2028.

Global Datanote: ISM Manufacturing Survey, US, April 2026

In one line: Prices index likely sending a false alarm.

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, April 2026

Prices index likely sending a false alarm.

Global Datanote: Exports, Korea, April 2026

• In one line: Buoyed by rocketing chip exports

Global Datanote: Tokyo CPI, Japan, April 2026

• In one line: Subdued, thanks to expanded childcare subsidies