Pantheon Publications

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 7 May 2026

The main reason why the BSP should be reluctant to hike further

8 May 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Philippines' GDP going from bad to worse; we cut our 2026 call to 4%

• Philippine GDP growth missed expectations in Q1, slowing to a new post-Covid low of 2.8%, from 3.0%.
• Public spending is reawakening but consumption matters more, and the outlook is still very difficult.
• We’ve lowered our 2026 and 2027 GDP forecasts to 4.0% and 5.0%, respectively, from 4.8% and 5.2%.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 May 2026

Iran war ’saves’ Thailand from prolonged deflation
Already signs of an inflation squeeze on Philippine sales

7 May 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor ASEAN CPI hot in April, but now likely to cool

• April CPI releases from ASEAN have so far mostly surprised to the upside, barring Indonesia…
• …We’ve raised our 2026 calls for the Philippines and Vietnam to well over 5.0%, but the oil hit is fading.
• Indonesian authorities will now likely be compelled to raise subsidised fuel prices by 5%, at least.

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, ASEAN, April 2026

• In one line: Still losing steam.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 5 May 2026

Indonesia’s sturdy Q1 GDP is only skin-deep
ASEAN manufacturing continues to lose steam
Another BSP rate hike now seems likely, however misguided
Singapore's March retail sales doesn't look as good as it does under the surface

6 May 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Dubious leap in public spending behind Indonesia's Q1 GDP beat

• GDP growth in Indonesia set a new post-Covid high in Q1, rising further to 5.6%, against the consensus.
• But underlying the strong headline is a questionable jump in government spending; austerity incoming.
• We’ve raised our 2026 growth forecast to 5.2%, still expecting a slowdown to sub-5% rates by year-end.

5 May 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Heat map check: war hitting India fast; big exporters mostly unfazed

• Our heat maps show only India is feeling the war’s pinch, highlighting its Middle East exposure…
• …By contrast, the main exporters are still going strong; no signs yet of the chip boom losing steam.
• The RBI’s surveys show Indian consumer sentiment is already wobbling even without fuel-price rises.

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, February 2026

• In one line: Initial signs of a squeeze from the war fallout.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 30 April 2026

A broadly constructive deterioration of the Philippines' trade balance in Q1

Global Datanote: Bank of Thailand Decision, April 2026

• In one line: The war has been ‘good’ for the MPC’s policy space.

EM Asia Datanote: Bank of Thailand Decision, April 2026

• In one line: The war has been ‘good’ for the MPC’s policy space.

April 2025- Emerging Asia Chartbook

EARLY Q1 GDP NUMBERS SHOW A GENERAL COOLING

• …BSP AND MAS TIGHTEN IN VIEW OF CPI RISKS

Global Datanote: Industrial Production, India, March 2026

• In one line: Decent, but positive momentum is fading.

EM Asia Datanote: Industrial Production, India, March 2026

• In one line: Decent, but positive momentum is fading.

EM Asia Datanote: Customs Trade, Thailand, March 2026

• In one line: A solid end to Q1 for two-way trade, but fundamental pressure on the THB is building.

27 April 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor THB needed a correction, but its fundamentals are weakening

• THB strength is no longer a ‘good headache’ for policymakers, but its wobble is no mere correction…
• …We still see a current-account deficit this year, but now at -1%; export leading indicators are tanking.
• A painful war punch to Indian exports; we expect net trade to impose a bigger 1.8pp hit on Q1 GDP.

Global Datanote: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Decision, April 2026

• In one line: An insurance hike; most probably a “one and done”.

EM Asia Datanote: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Decision, April 2026

• In one line: An insurance hike; most probably a “one and done”.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 23 April 2026

Indian PMIs rebounding on the back of the fragile ceasefire