Pantheon Publications

EM Asia Datanote: Core IP, India, May 2026

• In one line: Hit mainly by refined oil products, but overall momentum is sagging.

EM Asia Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision, June 2026

• In one line: An insurance hike, on top of last week's off-cycle insurance hike.

Global Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision, June 2026

• In one line: An insurance hike, on top of last week's off-cycle insurance hike.

Global Datanote: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Decision, June 2026

• In one line: Still anxious about inflation, in spite of recent positive developments.

EM Asia Datanote: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Decision, June 2026

• In one line: Still anxious about inflation, in spite of recent positive developments.

19 June 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Rate round-up: BI Fed fears mean one more hike, BSP mulls a hold

• BI is becoming more certain that the Fed will hike, pointing to one more rate rise, though we disagree.
• The BSP’s higher CPI forecasts are bemusing, but it’s now rightly mulling an end to tightening.
• The CBC holds, as expected, while also still seeing 2026 average CPI staying below the key 2% mark.

18 June 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Singapore's NODX reaches an astonishing new high in May

• Singapore’s non-oil domestic export growth reached an astonishing new high, at 38.4% in May…
• …And Q2 should be stronger than we had previously expected, thanks to oil exports and electronics.
• We’ve raised our 2026 current account forecast for India to -1.5% of GDP, from -3.0%, with oil receding.

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, India, May 2026

• In one line: Demand from the Middle East continues to normalise; oil boost to imports will eventually correct.

EM Asia Datanote: WPI, India, May 2026

• In one line: June should mark the peak before a precipitous collapse in H2.

16 June 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor US-Iran deal; short-term neutral for Indian CPI, but good news for WPI

• The improved outlook for global oil prices is unlikely to benefit Indian consumers immediately, if at all.
• WPI will almost certainly peak soon, however; we see a lower 2026 average of 6.5% and 2027 of 0.9%.
• The mean reversion up in food inflation will pause briefly, but upside risks, especially for 2027, prevail.

Global Datanote: CPI, India, May 2026

• In one line: Mean-reversion up in food inflation should now start to plateau. 

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, India, May 2026

• In one line: Mean-reversion up in food inflation should now start to plateau. 

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 11 June 2026

War hit to Indonesian retail sales is here, and we've likely not seen the worst of it

12 June 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor BI steps up its defence of the rupiah, which we think is getting a bad rap

• BI shocked with an off-cycle 25bp hike this week, likely removing the need for another one next week.
• Its Fed and C/A views are overly bearish, while the foreign equity rout may be just a one-off adjustment.
• Retail sales growth crashed into the red in April, somewhat unfairly, but the worst is still to come.

9 June 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Will growth hold up strongly enough to give the RBI cover for rate hikes?

• The RBI’s twin worries, over fading growth and rising inflation, point to a continued rate standstill…
• …We’ve upped our 2026 growth call to 7.0%, but the details of the ‘strong’ Q1 GDP aren’t convincing.
• Philippine and Thai CPI surprised to the downside in May, as we predicted; the BSP is still likely to hike.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 3 June 2026

Still no signs of fragility in the bullet train that is Vietnamese trade
Real sales growth continues to track softer in Q2
Small inflation uptick, but still uncomfortably above the SBV's ceiling

4 June 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor War noise unlikely to stop Vietnam's exports from flying higher in Q3

• The underlying strength in Vietnamese exports looks set to persist into the third quarter, at least…
• …But the monthly data at large suggest strongly that GDP growth, in reality, will likely cool in Q2.
• The fuel-price U-turn has yet to show in CPI; we’ve cut our 2026 call to 4.9% but raised 2027 to 3.6%.

Global Datanote: Trade, Indonesia, April 2026

• In one line: Commodity-price boost to two-way trade is finally here.

Global Datanote: CPI, Indonesia, May 2026

• In one line: Food drives the initial bounce-back.

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, ASEAN, May 2026

• In one line: Manufacturing is finally starting to stabilise.