Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- In one line: Inflation jumped on fuel prices, but underlying pressures remained contained.
- In one line: Moderating; finally.
In one line: In one line: A strong end to Q1, but the quarter was poor all the same.
In one line: Output is undershooting leading indicators; net trade boosted Q1 GDP growth.
- In one line: Industrial activity continues to recover, but momentum remains fragile.
- IIn one line: Banxico cuts rates, likely ending the easing cycle.
- In one line: Banxico cuts rates, likely ending the easing cycle.
HOUSE PRICES JUMP IN FEBRUARY...
- ...BUT WE STILL EXPECT HOUSE PRICE INFLATION OF 1% IN Q4
- In one line: Potentially the peak.
- In one line: Core inflation remains sticky, keeping Banxico cautious.
- In one line: Core inflation remains sticky, keeping Banxico cautious.
- In one line: No surprises.
- In one line: No surprises.
The main reason why the BSP should be reluctant to hike further
- The tariffs passed through fully to the CPI by March, but energy-driven goods price hikes will take time...
- Used auto prices and airline fares probably jumped in April, while rents likely rose at twice their trend...
- ...The BLS will use a calculation that will unwind its no-change assumption for rents last October.
- Banxico’s split vote highlights growing fears over persistent inflation and narrowing room for rate cuts.
- Weak growth and greater economic slack justify final rate cut despite elevated inflation concerns.
- External risks from oil prices, Fed uncertainty and MXN volatility dominate Banxico’s reaction function.
- Philippine GDP growth missed expectations in Q1, slowing to a new post-Covid low of 2.8%, from 3.0%.
- Public spending is reawakening but consumption matters more, and the outlook is still very difficult.
- We’ve lowered our 2026 and 2027 GDP forecasts to 4.0% and 5.0%, respectively, from 4.8% and 5.2%.
- EZ retail sales fell slightly in March; or did they? We think sales in Germany will be revised higher.
- Factory orders in Germany jumped at the end of Q1, pointing to near-term strength in industrial output.
- The EZ construction PMI sank further in April, but the survey is likely overstating the weakness.
- GDP likely declined in March, with falls across the board in the major activity components.
- We still expect quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of 0.5% in Q1, matching the MPC’s forecast.
- Underlying growth likely held firm in March; a good result given the shock of the Iran war.
Too unreliable to bank on a labor market upturn.
