Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Oil prices have fallen sharply, dragging down wholesale gas prices; the latter will fall further.
- Prices for jet fuel, agricultural commodities and precious metals also have tumbled.
- The headline rate of CPI inflation already has peaked; we are lowering our H2 forecast by 1/2pp.
- Mr. de la Espriella’s victory in Colombia cuts policy uncertainty but falls short of a strong mandate.
- Business confidence likely will improve, but capex decisions will depend on policy execution.
- Congress, fiscal constraints, political polarisation and security issues will limit scope for reforms.
- US-Iran talks remain fragile, but the near-term trend is clear; the White House wants lower oil prices.
- EZ survey data should reflect falling oil prices this week; price indices down and services sentiment up.
- Early hard data point to upside risk to Eurozone Q2 GDP growth and still-low recession risk.
- In one line: Hit mainly by refined oil products, but overall momentum is sagging.
- Gilts welcomed the likely smooth transition to a new prime minister after Sir Keir Starmer’s resignation.
- Even so, political risk has offset most of the drag on gilt yields from oil-price falls since their late-April peak.
- Younger people’s waning confidence may signal slowing growth, in contrast to aggregate surveys.
- In one line: Korea's exports flying thanks to chip prices
In one line: Korea's exports continue to surge thanks to chip shipments, notably soaring prices
- In one line: Deputy Governor Himono warns of potential inflation overshoot
In one line: Consumer inflation was flat at 1.4% in May, but producer inflation jumped. Deputy Governor Himono warns that inflation could overshoot the 2% target.
Inflation risks seems to have passed in Malaysia
Export growth soars, once again
- In one line: A hold, as widely expected.
- NFIB, Indeed, LinkUp, Census Bureau and regional Fed hiring indicators have all dropped in Q2.
- We see no evidence of a World Cup boost to payrolls in Homebase’s daily, city-level data yet.
- First estimates of private payrolls will be back in a 50-to-100K range soon, lifting unemployment.
- Brazil’s Copom delivered another cut, but inflation forecasts and expectations deteriorate further.
- Activity remains resilient, reducing the urgency for deeper rate cuts despite restrictive policy.
- Additional easing remains likely, though risks increasingly point towards a shallower cycle.
- Malaysian exports soared more than most analysts were expecting, as growth hit 45.3% in May…
- …Electronics exports and petroleum export revenue growth is likely to moderate in the coming quarters.
- We think inflation has peaked, as it rose to just 2.0% in May, below the 2.1% consensus.
- The BoJ is paying more attention to the 6.3% rise in May producer inflation than subdued consumer inflation.
- Deputy Governor Himono signalled a faster pace of rate hikes, given likely faster cost pass-though to CPI.
- This makes a September or October rate increase more likely than December.
- EV batteries are not included in the 70% content requirement for an EV to be ‘Made in Europe’.
- Local sourcing requirements risk making EU cars more expensive just when they need to be cheaper.
- The EU’s subsidies for buyers are no match for China’s subsidies for manufacturers.
- Andy Burnham is almost certain to become the UK’s next prime minister, but the timeline remains cloudy.
- Timing may prevent an expansionary Budget in 2026, but gilts have rightly priced in longer term fiscal risks.
- Underlying services inflation is slowing at a glacial pace while the labour market steadied in April/May.
- In one line: An insurance hike, on top of last week's off-cycle insurance hike.
- In one line: An insurance hike, on top of last week's off-cycle insurance hike.
- In one line: Still anxious about inflation, in spite of recent positive developments.
