- In one line: Expect a further rise in food inflation in the July report.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Export growth probably will buckle again in Q3.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Post-export-front-loading clouds continue to darken.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
Post-export-front-loading clouds for ASEAN continue to darken
Indonesian export growth probably will buckle again in Q3
Expect a further rise in Indonesian food inflation in the July report
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Consumer-facing industries are buckling.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Consumer-facing industries are buckling.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Retail sales growth in Thailand is still at an absurdly-high double-digit rate; ignoring the rosy headlines…
- …The monthly consumption index remains weak, and fading confidence points to more downside.
- Consumption looks set to continue rising, though, as wages recover alongside productivity.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A bump in the road for the uptrend in real Philippine import demand
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We no longer expect the SBV to restart cuts, with the worst-case tariff scenario looking less likely…
- …Plus, credit growth is already soaring and the authorities won’t want to risk rocking the VND further.
- Philippine household savings recovered more substantially in 2024, but the Covid hole remains huge.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
THE RBI—RIGHTLY—ISN’T BUYING THIS ‘RECOVERY’
- …CRACKS SHOWING IN THE EXPORT FRONT-LOADING STORY
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BoT yesterday left the policy rate steady after two consecutive cuts, in line with our expectation.
- The MPC’s worst fears at the April meeting have been averted, leading to an upgrade to its GDP call.
- We maintain that 1.75% is the terminal rate, though the risks are still clearly skewed to the downside.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s flash PMIs for June were robust, but note they remain susceptible to huge downgrades…
- …And they’re still down year-over-year in Q2, indicating big downside risk to GDP forecasts.
- Other details show waning optimism over the long run, and downward pressure building on core CPI.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A strong finish to India’s Q2, if June's flash PMIs hold
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Hit by free-falling electricity production.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Malaysian exports unexpectedly fell by 1.1% in May, because of subdued commodity demand…
- …Weak crude oil futures and declining LNG demand will continue to drag on exports in H2.
- Thai stocks are slumping amid new political turmoil; instability is a known risk, so expect no quick fixes.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Rightly unfazed, for now, by the upswing in oil prices.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Rightly unfazed, for now, by the upswing in oil prices.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
