Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
THE INFLATION OUTLOOK HAS IMPROVED...
- ...WHILE HIRING REMAINS DEPRESSED; MORE EASING AHEAD
- In one line: Nothing to see here, move along.
In one line: Nothing to see here, move along.
In one line: Pulled down by food inflation.
- In one line: A poor Q3, but early Q4 indicators hint at tentative stabilisation.
- In one line: A poor Q3, but early Q4 indicators hint at tentative stabilisation.
In one line: Nothing here for ECB doves.
In one line: Germany avoids recession, just; inflation down fractionally in October.
In one line: Not much of a rebound but faster growth is on the way.
THE INFLATION OUTLOOK IS IMPROVING...
- …BUT A RETURN SUSTAINABLY TO 2% WILL BE PROTRACTED
- - CHINA DOUBLING DOWN ON MANUFACTURING-LED MODEL
- - JAPAN’S NEW PRIME MINISTER LIKELY TO MODERATE POLICY
- - BOK SHOULD LEAN TOWARDS EASING IN NOVEMBER
- In one line: Rising mortgage approvals and solid credit flows suggest confident consumers.
Rates still too high for a sustained housing market renaissance.
- We calculate tariffs have lifted core PCE inflation by 0.4pp, below Mr. Powell’s “five to six tenths” estimate.
- Pass-through, however, is probably just over half complete, and services inflation will fall next year.
- The looming suspension of SNAP benefits could hit GDP by 0.2% if paused through the end of Q4.
- President Trump met PM Takaichi in Tokyo, marking the start of a new 'golden age' for US-Japan relations.
- The BoJ held rates in October, citing the ongoing trade uncertainty and need to monitor wage trends.
- A next hike in Q1 seems more probable now, as rhetoric teeing up a December move was lacking.
- The ECB took a breather in Florence; no change in policy and little in the way of guidance.
- Inflation in Spain and Germany, and our forecasts for Italy and France, signal EZ inflation at 2.2% today.
- EZ GDP rose by 0.2% quarter-to-quarter in Q3, breezing past the ECB’s September forecast.
- Markets need to prepare for major changes to the MPC’s flagship publications, the MPR and minutes…
- …Chief Economist Pill outlined the changes, which amount to downplaying the central forecasts further.
- A manifesto-breaking income-tax hike is more likely, with rumours of a larger OBR productivity downgrade.
In one line: Growth slows but Spain still outperforming.
- In one line: On hold, waiting for clearer disinflation.
