Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Daily Monitor Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
- BI surprised almost everyone with a larger-than-expected 50bp rate hike, amid the IDR’s struggles…
- …This increase should be a one-off; pressure on the IDR will ease and the CPI target still looks secure.
- Malaysian export growth hit 37% in April, as the AI boom further boosted electronics exports.
- GDP growth in Thailand rose unexpectedly in Q1, to 2.8%, but inventories hid a broad domestic easing…
- …We maintain our 2.2% growth forecast for 2026, implying a sustained slowdown to 1.0% by Q4.
- India’s scorching WPI print was no surprise to us, and we find much comfort in still-tepid WPI food.
- Headline inflation in India was much softer than expected in April, merely inching up to 3.5%...
- ...Low food-price base effects were the sole reason; our daily food tracker points to a big reversal in May.
- We’ve cut our 2026 average inflation forecast to 3.4%, even if diesel prices are raised by up to 8%.
- Retail sales growth in Indonesia slowed in March, but Q1 overall was the best quarter in two years.
- The historically tight job market is finally reviving wage growth, but cracks are surfacing in the former.
- Income-used data continue to show rising caution, with the share for savings now above average.
- Philippine GDP growth missed expectations in Q1, slowing to a new post-Covid low of 2.8%, from 3.0%.
- Public spending is reawakening but consumption matters more, and the outlook is still very difficult.
- We’ve lowered our 2026 and 2027 GDP forecasts to 4.0% and 5.0%, respectively, from 4.8% and 5.2%.
- April CPI releases from ASEAN have so far mostly surprised to the upside, barring Indonesia…
- …We’ve raised our 2026 calls for the Philippines and Vietnam to well over 5.0%, but the oil hit is fading.
- Indonesian authorities will now likely be compelled to raise subsidised fuel prices by 5%, at least.
- GDP growth in Indonesia set a new post-Covid high in Q1, rising further to 5.6%, against the consensus.
- But underlying the strong headline is a questionable jump in government spending; austerity incoming.
- We’ve raised our 2026 growth forecast to 5.2%, still expecting a slowdown to sub-5% rates by year-end.
- In what was a coin-toss meeting, the BSP tightened the target reverse repo rate by 25bp to 4.50%…
- …It raised its CPI forecast to above 4% for 2027; we doubt inflation will be this bad or persistent.
- India’s PMIs rebounded partially in April from the March shock, but the broad trend is still weak.
- BI remained on hold for a seventh straight meeting; the consensus, like us, now expects a long pause.
- BI’s attention remains on IDR stability, for now, but the speed of the sell-off so far is manageable.
- We agree with the Bank that the IDR is looking undervalued; it should start to find its feet next year.
- The H2 oil outlook is still largely improving, but normalising food CPI remains the issue in India…
- …Reassuringly, inflation expectations are still subdued, and firms are set to swallow higher costs.
- Taiwanese export growth surprised substantially in March, with electronics still flying.
- The RBI stayed on hold, as expected, while its new CPI outlook already looks dated, post-ceasefire…
- …A smaller diesel-price hike is now likely, and food gains have peaked; we see 2026 CPI at 3.7%.
- Taiwan’s inflation fell more than expected in March; the CBC‘s red line looks secure, for now.
- GDP growth in Vietnam cooled just a tad in Q1, to 8.0% from 8.3%, if stripping out residual seasonality.
- We still see full-year 2026 growth moderating to 7.5%; high export base effects are now in the frame.
- This oil shock is looking worse for Vietnam than the one in 2022; we’ve raised our 2026 CPI call to 4.8%.
- Stagflationary signs were seen in ASEAN’s PMI, as in India, but inflation is a bigger worry for the former.
- Indonesia’s soft March CPI is a big misdirect; we now see an eventual fuel price hike of 5% this year…
- …February’s export print was a let-down, but should mark the year’s low, as commodities will soon help.
- India’s Feb. IP validates our above-consensus call, but the post-GST pop in consumer goods is done…
- …Output looks poised to hit a wall in March; last week’s fuel-tax cuts buy consumers time, not relief.
- Thai consumption was having a decent Q1 pre-war, amid an easing in structural high-debt headwinds.
- Thailand’s customs trade deficit in February was a big miss, but this has been deteriorating for a while.
- The oil-price spike will likely see a current account deficit of -1.5% this year, after +3.1% in 2025.
- The BoT won’t mind if the THB falls further though, as it rightly has been more worried about strength.
- India’s PMIs have been softening for a while, but the Iran-war hit is notable, especially in manufacturing…
- …The complete PMIs for Q1 back our downbeat call for GDP of 6.1%; the long-term outlook is unfazed.
- Taiwanese retail sales—ex-vehicles—are better than they look; the war is unlikely to hurt tourist inflows.
- Oil at $150 should pose no urgent CPI risk to India; fiscally, it’s better placed to manage this shock…
- …Main threat would be higher imported inflation from late-2026, as the CA deficit would blow up.
- Indonesia could see an 11% rise in subsidised fuel prices this year—more than in 2022—with $150 oil.
- Bank Indonesia held rates yesterday, as expected, and no longer pledged to find room for more cuts.
- We lower our estimate for India’s current account deficit this year to -3.0% of GDP, due to the oil crisis.
- Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports for January- to-February point to 49.7% growth in electronics.
- The Philippines’ staggered fuel hikes won’t stop inflation from jumping above 3% this month…
- …Vietnam’s much larger adjustment bolsters our view that the SBV will hike rates at least once in H2.
- The modest pace of Indonesian retail sales growth is looking increasingly fragile once again.
- The spike and projected stickiness in oil prices due to the Middle East unrest is now material for Asia…
- …We’ve raised our 2026 inflation forecasts for India and Indonesia to 4.0% and 2.9%, respectively.
- Taiwan’s exports moderated in February amid Lunar New Year noise, but now face serious energy risk.
