Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Daily Monitor Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
- BI surprised again, but with a rate hold this time; we’re sticking to our end-2025 call of 4.50%.
- Malaysian inflation increased again, the third rise since the expansion of the sales and services tax.
- India’s full core IP data for Q3 show a solid bounce, but the GDP signal remains subdued.
- The ballooning in India’s trade gap in September was due to gold imports, but beware US exports.
- Singapore’s Q3 GDP print surprised to the upside, at 2.9%, but the headline slowdown is far from over…
- …The MAS expects this to be the case too, implying the bar to fresh policy easing is still high.
- India’s inflation gauges softened yet again in September, with food prices still largely sliding…
- …Housing inflation popped out of nowhere, but the fundamentals don’t support persistently big gains.
- We have cut our 2025 and 2026 CPI forecasts further, to 2.2% and 3.8%, respectively.
- The BSP surprised yesterday with another 25bp cut to its policy rate, as it rejigged its growth views…
- …But the weakness in business confidence has been in play for a while; we now see two more cuts.
- Indonesian retail sales growth is starting to revive more noticeably, but headwinds are intensifying.
- The BoT surprised the widespread consensus yesterday by holding the policy rate at 1.50%.
- The export U-turn is here, and the MPC sounds too nonchalant over domestic demand and inflation…
- …We reiterate our 1.00% terminal rate forecast, implying 25bp cuts in December and in Q1.
- Sales growth in the Philippines fell to a 10-month low, but the survey data are improving at least…
- …We’ve cut our 2025 and 2026 CPI forecasts to 1.7% and 2.4%; no momentum in food prices.
- Downside risks are mounting to our already below- consensus 2025-to-26 CPI forecasts for Thailand.
- GDP growth in Vietnam held steady in Q3 at a robust 8.2%, but mostly thanks to residual noise…
- …Still, fast loan growth poses upside risk to a likely sharper slowdown from the front-loading payback.
- We’ve raised our 2025 and 2026 full-year GDP growth forecasts to 7.7% and 6.5%, respectively.
- Indonesia’s trade surplus surprised massively to the upside in August, but largely on seasonal factors…
- …Underlying two-way trade growth continues to ebb; exports are fighting a handful of headwinds.
- Inflation rose above BI’s 2.5% target for the first time in over a year, but a Q4 rate cut is still on the table.
- The RBI stayed on hold yesterday, but two members called for more dovish implied forward guidance…
- …Its latest GDP forecasts reveal no real faith in the stimulative impact of GST 2.0; we concur.
- Bank on ASEAN’s robust September PMI at your own risk, as underlying it is a very skewed picture.
- Ignore the miss in Indian IP in August; the recent stasis is breaking, and the fixed capex signal is solid.
- Retail sales growth in Thailand crashed back down to earth in July, but expect much more softness…
- …Consumption growth is seeing some stability alongside tourist arrivals; local demand is still weak.
- Thai customs export growth missed expectations in August, as the surge in US shipments finally turned.
- Short-term leading indicators point to much more downside ahead, while THB strength will only hurt.
- The one consolation is that the supply-side reaction to falling exports is unlikely to be as painful.
- India’s flash PMIs only stumbled in September; no big tariff hit or boost from goods and service tax…
- …The complete numbers for Q3 point to GDP growth of 7.4%, posing upside risks to our 7.0% call.
- Malaysian inflation ticked up in August; we see increased upward risks for the rest of the year.
- Bank Indonesia shocked the consensus—yet again—with a third straight 25bp BI rate cut.
- Indian export growth barely moved in August, masking a bigger nosedive in shipments to the US.
- Talks with Washington have resumed amid a drop in India’s oil imports; lower tariffs in Q4 still possible.
- The August bounce in India's inflation should prove short-lived; high food base effects will return…
- …The upward mean-reversion in core CPI is starting to see more cracks and waning momentum.
- We have cut our full-year average forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.3% and 4.2%, respectively.
- The Philippines’ unemployment rate in July jumped to its highest level in close to three years, at 5.3%…
- …Adverse weather rightly was to blame, but hiring intentions are now weakening more noticeably.
- Retail sales growth in Indonesia popped in July, but the long-term outlook remains very challenging.
- Indonesia’s finance minister is out, introducing uncertainty in an area of policy that’s been sound…
- …Fortunately for Mr. Purbaya, the worst of the slump in public revenue growth should be over.
- Taiwanese exports moderate, but not as sharply as expected, as the impact of the AI boom prevails.
- Vietnam’s August export figures confirm that the front-loading to the US is well and truly over.
- Our proxy GDP gauge is holding steady from Q2 at 6.8%; ‘official’ growth rate will probably be higher.
- The household sector is still on the mend, finding greater support from the job market.
- BNM left the policy rate unchanged at 2.75%, as it remains confident despite US tariffs...
- ...The Bank has seen strong orders for electronics and expects domestic demand to stay robust.
- We’ve slashed our 2025 and 2026 CPI forecasts for Thailand to just -0.1% and 0.3%, respectively.
- ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI rose more comfortably above 50 in August, to 51.0…
- …Consolidation above 50 is looking likely, with short-term leading indicators recovering in tandem.
- But downside risks prevail over the long run; for now, we’ve yet to see firms cut prices to fight tariffs.
- Indonesia’s trade surplus is ballooning again, forcing upgrades to our current account forecasts…
- …But support from US front-loading will soon fade; commodity prices won’t provide much of a cushion.
- Rapidly waning core pressure is the main story behind the soft August CPI; one BI cut still to come.
