Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Daily Monitor Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
- We think GDP rose by around 3½% in Q4, with consumers’ spending up about 2½%.
- AI-linked capex probably continued to surge, while net trade and inventories also made solid contributions.
- The recent pace of growth, however, looks unsustainable; we expect a slowdown in 2026.
- GDP growth in Thailand leapt unexpectedly in Q4, to 2.5% from the post-pandemic low of 1.2% in Q3…
- …But this was largely due to a resumption of normal government business, as well as its mini-stimulus.
- We still see a broad slowdown this year, but have raised our 2026 forecast to 2.2% from 1.8%.
- Malaysian retail sales remain static, in terms of seasonally adjusted volumes…
- …We think consumption will continue to support growth, but consumer confidence seems gloomy
- We see warning signs the recovery in Indonesian consumption risks being nipped in the bud.
- Thailand’s Bhumjaithai party surprised with a clear win, smoothing A nutin’s path to becoming PM…
- …The People’s Party’s loss implies a bigger chance of internal stability and less risk of populist policy.
- We see no reason to change our growth outlook though, as structural headwinds will still dominate.
- Indonesian Q4 GDP growth beat expectations, at 5.4%, and is likely closer to 7.0% in reality…
- …Consumption is the real hero, not investment; we’ve upgraded our 2026 growth forecast to 5.1%.
- The leap in inflation in January was quite deceptive; calm food prices force us to cut our 2026 call.
- India’s 2026/27 budget is the least restrictive we’ve seen in years, seeing a trivial deficit consolidation…
- …to 4.3% of GDP; an achievable target in our view, given the natural capex ceiling and realistic tax goal.
- The start of a new anchor—debt-to-GDP—will mean faster consolidation from 2027/28 though.
- The Philippines’ Q4 GDP was grim, with growth plummeting to just 3.0%, from 3.9% in Q3…
- …We’ve yet to see signs of a bottom in investment-related indicators, while consumption remains soft.
- We’ve cut our already-below-consensus GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 4.8%, from 5.0%.
- Private firms are turning more optimistic about profits, with good reason, but only in certain sectors...
- ...The AI boom, green energy transition and industrial upgrading are lifting profits for related sectors.
- But Q4 consumer sentiment remained glum, indicating continued sluggish domestic demand this year.
- Thai customs exports easily beat expectations in December, with growth returning to double digits…
- …Soaring US demand is getting more help from the DM world, while shipments elsewhere are lagging.
- On balance, it looks like net trade will hit Q4 GDP hard, especially with imports bouncing strongly.
- Bank Indonesia remained on hold yesterday, a position we expect to continue for all of 2026…
- …Worries over BI’s independence seem overblown; note its sovereign debt holding is no longer rising.
- Core IP in India firmed up more in December, but Q4 on the whole, and the details are uninspiring.
- Conservatives within Vietnam’s ruling party look to be reasserting themselves ahead of the Congress…
- …The big U-turn on the annual credit quota suggests to us that 2026 will see one rate hike.
- Thailand’s opposition PP looks poised to win in February, but acute political uncertainty will linger.
- Food deflation in India is receding quickly, pushing headline inflation up further, to 1.3% in December…
- …We’ve raised our 2026 average forecast to 4.1%, but underlying inflation remains very benign.
- Indonesian retail sales growth has hit a 20-month high, despite the big holes in discretionary goods.
- The Philippines’ hot December CPI was no surprise to us; we still expect a February BSP rate cut.
- Thai deflation eased as much as expected in December, but core disappointed to the downside.
- Taiwanese CPI inched up in December, but we think it will trend down further this year.
- GDP growth in Vietnam surprised massively to the upside in Q4, rising to 8.4% from 8.1% in Q3…
- …But we still expect to see a sustained moderation this year; our revised 2026 forecast is 7.5%.
- Export momentum has almost vanished, FDI is rolling over, and wage growth is softening.
- BI kept its benchmark rate at 4.75%, in line with most expectations; the real rate is close to neutral…
- …Its tone remains dovish, and we continue to believe next year will see a tactical shift to RRR cuts.
- The BoT resumed easing with a 25bp cut; we still expect a quick follow-up cut at February’s meeting.
- India’s PMIs continued to roll over in December, altogether pointing to a Q4 GDP growth U-turn…
- …The future output sub-index is going from bad to worse, adding weight to our downbeat 2026 view.
- A plunge in gold imports drove the shrinkage of the trade gap last month, but US exports are bouncing.
- The BSP eased policy further this month, cutting its
benchmark rate by a further 25bp to 4.50%…
- …We still see a terminal rate of 4.25%; growth
worries are likely to continue to outweigh CPI risks.
- Indonesian sales growth looks set to hit a 20-month
high in November, but it may also soon hit a ceiling.
- Export growth in Vietnam disappointed again in November, as US shipments continue to flail…
- …Overall downside risks are receding though, and the Q4 data point to still-healthy GDP growth.
- Inflation in Taiwan eased sharply in November to 1.2%, but purely due to high base effects.
- Thailand’s November CPI prints were firmer than expected, but we still see an MPC cut this month.
- We’ve raised our 2025 forecast to -0.1%, while simultaneously cutting our 2026 call to 0.0%…
- … Another power tariff cut is scheduled for January, and underlying inflation pressures are non- existent.
- Taiwan’s Q3 GDP growth was revised up to 8.2%—a 0.6pp rise— driven by a bigger boost from net trade.
- More granular data on investment reveals its overall weakness was due to inventory drawdown.
- India’s IP and GST readings for Q4-to-date are less alarming once Diwali noise is stripped out.
