The H2 recovery in Philippine sales lost a lot of upward momentum in Q4
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Philippine inflation is now firmly within the BSP's 2-to-4% target range
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Philippine inflation is now below the mid-point of the BSP’s target range, bolstering our Q2 cut call.
- The Bank of Thailand will stand pat today, but the MPC’s pessimistic CPI views no longer hold water.
- We’re still waiting on the new weights for Indonesian CPI, but we continue to expect cuts to start in Q2.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian GDP growth rebounded slightly to 5.0% in Q4, from 4.9% in Q3, in line with expectations...
- ...But the uptick owes a lot to inventories, which can’t be relied on, with external demand still fragile.
- Private domestic demand ended 2023 softly; we still expect annual growth to slip to 4.8% this year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Inventories hide a general slowdown in Indonesian private domestic demand in Q4
Jump in Singaporean vehicle sales in December was unable to offset weakness in other areas
The near-2% consensus for average Thai inflation this year is looking increasingly absurd
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India interim budget for 2024/25, presented last week, sees a smaller—5.1% of GDP—deficit…
- …But consolidation will no longer benefit from post-Covid catch-up growth and high inflation.
- Investment has be en a real priority in recent years, but the problem of underspend is creeping in.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Yet another reassuring below-consensus drop in core.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: An encouraging, but most likely temporary, bounce.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
An encouraging, but most likely temporary, bounce in ASEAN manufacturing
Yet another reassuring below-consensus drop in Indonesian core inflation
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: The run-up to 2024 was devoid of upward momentum.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Still-lofty growth remains very exposed to a further slowdown.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The Philippines' slowdown resumes, but less dramatically than expected
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in the Philippines cooled only modestly in Q4 to 5.6%, from 6.0% in Q3...
- ...Trade and government spending were big drags, offset inconsequentially by inventories and noise.
- Fixed investment was the only real bright spot, but this is also benefiting still from the Covid catch-up.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Vietnam’s partial trade numbers for January point to a sharp monthly correction in two-way flows.
- The absolute retail sales numbers cast a lot of doubt over the supposedly gentle slide in growth.
- Headline inflation is likely to remain sticky in H1, but it should inevitably follow the core rate down.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Ignore the Tet noise, two-way trade started 2024 poorly
Retail sales had an abysmal January, too, leaving aside the rose-tinted headline
Headline stickiness is masking a persistent decline in core inflation
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A welcome two-sided improvement, but Thai net trade should hit Q4 GDP
Don’t be fooled by the apparent recovery in Philippine exports
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s flash PMIs for January suggest the decline in momentum late last year has run its course.
- Philippine GDP grow th likely slowed to 4.8% in Q4, from 5.9% in Q3; consumption growth is tanking.
- Thai exports were firm in December, but Q4 was largely flat; vice versa for imports, hitting GDP.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
MALAYSIA’S Q4 GDP DISAPPOINTS SUBSTANTIALLY...
- ...INDIA’S ADVANCE ESTIMATE FOR 2023/24 GDP IS FARCICAL
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: No cuts until inflation is comfortably below target; that is, in Q2.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: No cuts until inflation is comfortably below target; that is, in Q2.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
