Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)
- We look for a 0.2% November core CPI print, but a 0.3% increase is more likely than 0.1%.
- The bigger picture, though, is that core disinflation is well underway, and has much further to run.
- The NFIB index likely rebounded in November, but the details of the survey are what matter.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The most important number Friday was the steep drop in consumers’ inflation expectations…
- …The reported dip in the unemployment rate was much too small to be statistically significant.
- Growth in cyclically-sensitive payrolls is now quite slow, but it’s unlikely to roll over anytime soon.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Homebase and the ISM services employment index signal upside payroll risk for November.
- But the underlying state of the labor market is weakening, and wage growth is slowing.
- Look at the Michigan expectations index, not the headline; it’s a better predictor of actual spending.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The gap between the GDI and GDP numbers is unusually large by historic standards...
- ...Undercounting of interest payments means that big upward revisions to GDI are a good bet.
- ISM services signals modest and steady growth, but hints at a hefty bounce in October payrolls.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Higher rates and tighter lending standards are depressing credit and constraining spending…
- …But the hit is modest, so far, and the deterioration in credit quality is not yet alarming.
- Initial jobless claims are wild around Thanksgiving, but look for a further increase in continuing claims.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- U.S. - Chair Powell’s Optionality Line is Nominal, Not Real; they’re Done
- EUROZONE- The ECB’s Hawkish Stance on Interest Rates is About to Change
- U.K. - BRC and Eurozone Data Suggest CPI Inflation Fell Again in November
- CHINA+ - Chinese Manufacturing Reports Weakening Demand
- EM ASIA - Make What You Will of India’s Absurd Q3 GDP... We’re Not Moved
- LATAM - An Inflection Point, Though Anaemic, for the Chilean Economy
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- The quits rate fell much further than implied by the drop in unemployment during the Great Rehiring…
- …It correctly signalled that wage gains would rocket, but now it tells the opposite story.
- ISM services has tracked sideways in recent months, net; the pattern likely continued in November.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Chair Powell’s heart is no longer in the optionality story; he repeated it Friday but it’s no longer realistic.
- The continued shrinkage of the M2 money supply is disconcerting, even for non-monetarists.
- The manufacturing sector is in the doldrums, and auto sales are now trending down.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Core PCE inflation is fading rapidly; in recent months it has run only just above 2% on a sequential basis.
- Consumption spending slowed at the start of Q4, but likely is on course to rise at a 2%-plus rate.
- Look for only a modest bounce in the ISM manufacturing index, despite the leap in the Chicago PMI.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
