Pantheon Publications
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Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)
- The ECB cut the deposit rate by 25bp to 2.0%, as expected, but Ms. Lagarde signalled this is it.
- We still see a final 25bp cut, to 1.75%—now in September—but we’re less certain than before.
- The ECB’s new forecasts are very dovish on inflation and likely will have to be revised up in due course.
In one line: All set for doves to take charge of ECB policy over the summer.
In one line: All set for doves to take charge of ECB policy over the summer.
- EZ sovereigns have been largely spared in the global bond-market rout, but French bonds remain fragile.
- Foreigners own more than half of government bonds in France, with Japanese savings a key swing factor.
- We think Japan owns around €165B-worth of French government bonds, or 5% of French GDP.
- Inflation in both the EZ and Switzerland fell below the respective central-bank targets in May.
- In the EZ, the decline solidifies the need for a rate cut this month, and we look for another one in Q3.
- In Switzerland, deflation is likely to become a mainstay, so brace for a 50bp rate cut from the SNB.
In one line: Upturn in money supply continues; Italian GDP on a solid footing in Q1.
In one line: Strong, but remember difference in base effects in the CPI and HICP.
In one line: Consumption growth will slow in Q2.
A TENSE MONTH OF EU-US TRADE NEGOTIATIONS LIES AHEAD...
- ...WE STILL SEE UNCERTAINTY WEIGHING ON GROWTH
In one line: Falling energy consumption will weigh on spending in Q2.
In one line: The gift that keeps on giving to ECB doves.
In one line: Still improving.
In one line: Boosted by investment and consumption.
- A sustained 50% tariff on EU exports to the US would send the EZ economy into recession.
- The route to an EU-US trade deal is relatively easy, but the EU will respond in kind to US tariff threats.
- The German economy was in rude health in Q1, but trade uncertainty will now weigh on growth.
- The EC’s new economic forecasts see a ‘Goldilocks’ boom next year; the economy won’t be that lucky.
- We see stronger growth in Germany than the EC next year, but weaker in France and Spain.
- The EC’s forecast for EZ inflation in 2026, at 1.7%, rests on too dovish energy and core goods forecasts.
- EZ construction output is slowing after a strong finish to 2024, but leading indicators are improving.
- The EZ current account surplus soared in March, reflecting tariff front-running in goods.
- Portfolio outflows fell sharply in March, and likely crashed outright in April.
In one line: Headed for 2% over the summer; enough for two more ECB cuts?
In one line: Headed for 2% over the summer; enough for two more ECB cuts?
- EZ headline inflation is about to fall to 2%, helping to get further ECB easing over the line, but how much?
- Survey data continue to signal significant upside risk to food inflation; energy inflation will rebound too.
- Services inflation will drop sharply in May but is set to be sticky around 3%.
- We look for broad-based strength in the surveys for May, but we think it will be temporary.
- The Eurozone’s trade surplus soared in Q1, boosted by tariff front-running in pharmaceuticals.
- The EZ runs a deficit with the US in services, but a surplus if intellectual property is excluded.
