Pantheon Publications

Global Datanote: Advance Inflation Eurozone, April 2026

In one line: Nasty, and it will get nastier still soon. 

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Eurozone, April 2026

In one line: Nasty, and it will get nastier still soon. 

EZ Datanote: Advance Q1 GDP & April Unemployment, Germany

In one line: Q1 GDP boosted by consumption and net trade; labour market cracking in Q2? 

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, France, April 2026

In one line: Lifted by a further surge in energy inflation. 

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, March 2026

In one line: Grim, but appear unduly depressed by seasonals. 

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, France, Q1 2026

In one line: Stung by falling energy consumption and plunge in construction. 

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, April 2026

In one line: Services flattered by plunge in package holiday inflation. 

EZ Datanote: Money Supply, Eurozone, March 2026

In one line: Real M1 growth is holding up, for now. 

EZ Datanote: State CPIs, Germany, April 2026

In one line: Temporary relief from plunge in package holiday inflation. 

April 2026- EZ Economic Chartbook

THE EUROZONE IS SLIPPING BACK INTO STAGFLATION…

• …THE ECB WILL FOCUS ON INFLATION WITH TWO RATE HIKES THIS YEAR

30 April 2026 Eurozone Monitor We now see only a modest increase in EZ inflation in April

• We now see a relatively small rise in Eurozone HICP inflation in April, by 0.1pp, to 2.7%. 
• Energy inflation climbed further in the EZ, but the core fell due to a temporary slide in services inflation. 
• EC selling price expectations rose across the board in April, and recession probability remained low. 

29 April 2026 Eurozone Monitor ECB surveys paint a perfect, yet ominous, picture of EZ stagflation

• ECB consumer inflation expectations jumped in March, to 3%, on a three-year basis.
• The ECB’s bank lending survey points to tightening credit standards and weakening loan demand.
• Markets are still pricing the path for the ECB, based on inflation, inflation expectations and the oil price.

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Confidence, Germany, May 2026

In one line: In the footsteps of the PMI and IFO.

27 April 2026 Eurozone Monitor Week in preview: Inflation up, growth stable, the ECB on hold

• There are downside risks to Q1 GDP growth, but Eurozone inflation rose further in April, to 3.0%.
• Core inflation likely fell a touch in April, due to weakness in services, but it will snap back in May.
• The ECB will stand pat this week, waiting for the June forecasts before its next move—a hike.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany & Eurozone, April 2026

In one line: Stagflation is back, with a vengeance. 

Global Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany & Eurozone, April 2026

In one line: Stagflation is back, with a vengeance. 

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Confidence & Advance PMIs, France, April 2026

In one line: Downside risks are widening. 

Global Datanote: INSEE Business Confidence & PMIs, France, April 2026

In one line: Downside risks are widening. 

24 April 2026 Eurozone Monitor Stagflation is back in the Eurozone; how will the ECB respond?

• A plunge in services PMIs warns that the growth in EZ consumers’ spending is now grinding to a halt.
• We cut our Q2 EZ GDP growth forecasts further, by 0.1pp to 0.1%, due to weakness in Germany.
• We still think the ECB will respond to the inflation shock by hiking, but markets are too hawkish.

23 April 2026 Eurozone Monitor EU's energy toolkit will help in the next energy shock, not this one

• The EU allows national governments to subsidise energy costs for energy-intensive industries.
• But it has not yet given member states permission to forcefully respond to the looming energy shock.
• Efforts to reduce reliance on energy imports will help in the future, not so much during the current shock.