Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)
- Germany will raise its public debt burden by more
than €1T over the next decade; what will this fund?
- A sustained rise in defence spending to 3.5% ramps
up the pressure on public finances from 2027.
- The German government’s plan implies front-loaded
investment from special funds starting next year.
In one line: EZ manufacturing fell flat on its face in August.
- Construction and manufacturing likely drove another slight increase in French GDP in Q3.
- Leading indicators for investment in France are subdued, but falling saving is helping consumption.
- Our updated forecasts for the four majors still see EZ GDP rising by 0.1% in Q3, but with downside risk.
- German auto output rebounded in September, but will this be included in the first Q3 GDP estimate?
- Construction investment rose in Q3, but net trade and consumption likely remained sluggish.
- We now think the first Q3 GDP estimate in Germany will show that output fell by 0.2% quarter-to-quarter.
In one line: Ugly, but stung by one-off distortions.
- The reversal of tariff front-running is weighing on German export orders, but is the worst over?…
- …Revisions to sales data suggest that industrial output was weaker in Q3 than we thought.
- Early data indicate that EZ industrial production fell by 0.2% in August, partially reversing the rise in July.
- France has lost another Prime Minister; how many more times will Mr. Macron play the same hand?
- Eurozone retail sales and Spanish industrial production growth likely slowed in Q3.
- The PMIs point to continued weakness in EZ construction, but investor sentiment is still upbeat.
In one line: Not pretty, but the official numbers are better.
In one line: On track for a boost to Q3 GDP growth.
In one line: Nothing to see, the trend is flat.
- Spanish GDP for Q2 was revised up, and surveys and hard data suggest we are too downbeat on Q3...
- ...We are revising up our forecast, though we still look for GDP growth to slow a touch.
- Italian GDP, meanwhile, is still likely to rise by 0.1% quarter-to-quarter in Q3, reversing Q2’s decline.
INFLATION ABOVE 2% WILL KEEP THE ECB ON HOLD IN Q4
…THE EURO AND ENERGY PRICES ALLOWING
In on line: Rebounding, but tariff-sensitive manufacturing is weakening.
- Decimals proved dovish in the September HICP, but the main message from the report is hawkish.
- We still see EZ inflation above 2% in Q4, which would make it difficult for the ECB to cut in December.
- We’re lowering our inflation forecasts slightly, but our baseline remains higher than the ECB’s.
In one line: Risks tilted to an upside surprise in the CPI; jobless claims should fall back next month.
In one line: Inflation up, but less than we expected; spending, ex-services is flat.
In one line: On track for a small decline in Q3.
- A hawkish tilt in the German and Italian HICP data leaves our forecast for the EZ HICP at 2.3%.
- We still see the glass as half-full for Q3 consumption in Germany and France, despite soft monthly data.
- German jobless claims ticked higher in September but will fall in October; employment is still subdued.
