Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)
In one line: Investor sentiment rebounds in May, slightly.
In one line: Boosted by capital goods.
In one line: The core will snap back in May, but a fuel duty cut will lower energy inflation.
- EZ employment growth slowed further in Q1, leaving a thin margin of safety ahead of the energy shock.
- Industrial production in the Eurozone fell in Q1, but the output PMI promises much better data ahead.
- French fuel prices are rising faster than in the other major EZ countries, and the government can’t help.
- A fuel-duty cut will keep German headline inflation in check in May, but we still see a rise to 3% soon…
- …Services inflation in Germany was pulled lower by a plunge in airfares in April; this will reverse in May.
- Italian industry ended Q1 on a strong note; ZEW investor sentiment rebounded in May.
- Strong growth in IP investment, ex-Ireland, and capex in IT show the AI theme in the EZ macro data.
- The US is sprinting ahead on AI investment, while Europe is still walking, barely…
- …ECB data suggest US digital investment is up 80% since 2020, compared with no change in the EZ.
In one line: In one line: A strong end to Q1, but the quarter was poor all the same.
In one line: Output is undershooting leading indicators; net trade boosted Q1 GDP growth.
- German industrial output is still trailing leading indicators; revisions or a rebound are coming.
- Nowcast models for Q1 GDP in Germany look strong despite weakness in industry and retail sales data.
- Industrial output in Spain jumped in March, helping production in the EZ as a whole to a small gain.
- EZ retail sales fell slightly in March; or did they? We think sales in Germany will be revised higher.
- Factory orders in Germany jumped at the end of Q1, pointing to near-term strength in industrial output.
- The EZ construction PMI sank further in April, but the survey is likely overstating the weakness.
- We doubt that a rapprochement between the US and Iran will get the ECB off the hook next month.
- Wage growth in the EZ remains subdued, but risks are tilting to the upside for next year.
- French industry and Italian retail sales ended Q1 on a solid note; the fall in EZ April PMIs is confirmed.
- Swiss inflation jumped in April, and is set to average 1% over the medium term…
- …As second-round effects from higher energy prices will lift domestic inflation sustainably in H2.
- The SNB will remain on the sidelines, since the energy shock is also set to hit growth.
- Swiss inflation likely rose further at the start of Q2, lifted primarily by higher inflation in import prices.
- German manufacturing data for March should reveal gains in both production and new orders.
- Retail sales in the EZ fell in March, but we think the German headline will be revised higher next month.
In one line: See you in June, for a hike.
In one line: See you in June, for a hike.
In one line: In wait-and-see mode, but we suspect with a hawkish bias.
In one line: In wait-and-see mode, but we suspect with a hawkish bias.
In one line: Nasty, and it will get nastier still soon.
In one line: Nasty, and it will get nastier still soon.
In one line: Q1 GDP boosted by consumption and net trade; labour market cracking in Q2?
