Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)
In one line: A blow for ECB doves and September rate cut hopes.
- The July HICP has raised the bar significantly for a September ECB rate cut…
- …But we won’t give up on our call until we see inflation data for August.
- A fall in core inflation, volatile markets, and US economic fragility could still pull a cut over the line.
In one line: EZ inflation in July was not the dovish slam dunk we were expecting.
In one line: No change; we still see the EZ HICP at 1.8% y/y.
In one line: German and Italian GDP both fall by 0.1% q/q; available data now point to 0.1% increase in EZ GDP.
In one line: Solid, but not enough to prevent a poor Q2.
In one line: Strong headline, terrible details.
- EZ GDP edged higher in Q2, helped by Portugal, Spain and France; Germany and Italy stumbled.
- We’re slightly more upbeat on investment, but we still see Eurozone exports in goods falling by 1% in H2.
- Inflation in Spain jumped in July, threatening our dovish forecast for the EZ HICP.
In one line: Near-term inflation expectations are easing.
EZ ECONOMY SHOWS RESILIENCE IN THE FACE OF TARIFF THREATS…
- …SUB-2% SUMMER INFLATION WILL GET A SEPTEMBER RATE CUT OVER THE LINE
- The US-EU trade deal is a decent outcome for the EZ economy, but it will sting politically in Brussels.
- A relatively small 1% fall in Irish Q2 GDP points to upside risk to this week’s EZ GDP growth print.
- The probability of a September rate cut will increase this week if our July inflation forecasts prove right.
In one line: Temporary slowdown in M1, we hope, resilient IFO and ISTAT surveys.
In one line: Unemployment fears fall slightly, but saving intentions rise further.
- EZ money supply growth slowed in June, but the trend is solid and the credit impulse improved again.
- IFO expectations in Germany are rising across almost all sectors; is a cyclical upturn underway?
- French consumer confidence rose marginally in July, but Italy’s IESI was held back by services weakness.
In one line: Not much to see; near-term downside risks persist.
In one line: Not much to see; near-term downside risks persist.
In one line: Income expectations are firming, but so are saving intentions.
- The ECB stood pat, as expected; Ms. Lagarde turned hawkish during the press conference.
- We still think inflation below 2% over the summer will be enough for a 25bp rate cut in September.
- EZ PMIs for July point to resilience, but also continued fragile growth in the core economies.
- The ECB will keep its powder dry this week, waiting for the September forecasts to decide its next move.
- The range of forecasts for the ECB’s policy rate next year has widened significantly.
We still see the deposit rate falling below 2% this year, setting up hikes by the end of 2026.
In one line: Still on track to hand the ECB a 25bp rate cut in September.
