Pantheon Publications

10 March 2026 Eurozone Monitor Three scenarios for the ECB as a new energy shock hits

• The ECB will hold fire next week, but the risk of a hawkish shift in communication is now elevated.  
• EZ inflation is on track to settle well above the ECB’s target, based on current oil and gas price futures. 
• A modest 50bp tightening in Q2, taking interest rates to the higher end of neutral, is now a key risk.

PM Datanote: Preliminary GDP, Japan, Q4

In one line: Japan’s softer than expected GDP outturn reinforces our case for a later than market rate hike.

10 March 2026 UK Monitor Labour market preview: payrolls stabilising prior to energy shock

• We expect inflation to trough at 2.6% in June and peak at 3.4% in December, given energy futures yesterday.
• We expect the flash payroll estimate to show a 5K month-to-month fall in February.
• Private-sector wage growth should tick up in January, and surveys suggest stabilisation ahead.

March 2026 - U.K. Housing Watch

HOUSE PRICE INFLATION DIPS IN DECEMBER...

• ...BUT ACTIVITY IS ALREADY PICKING UP IN Q1

PM Datanote: Current Account, China, Q4 (Preliminary)

In one line: China’s Q4 current account surplus surges on strong goods exports 

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 11 February 2026: China's PPI reflation remains patchy; CPI falls back on Lunar New Year timing

China's PPI reflation remains patchy; CPI falls back on Lunar New Year timing

PM Datanote: PPI, China, January

In one line: China’s PPI deflation eases further in January, but improvements were patchy.

PM Datanote: Foreign Reserves, China, January

In one line: China’s FX reserves jumped in January on factors beyond valuation effects.

PM Datanote: Foreign Reserves, China, February

In one line: China’s FX reserves rose further in February amid RMB strength, partly driven by exporters repatriating overseas USD proceeds.

EZ Datanote: Sentix Investor Confidence, Eurozone, March 2026

In one line: Recovery in sentiment derailed by war in Iran. 

Global Datanote: PPI, China, February, 2026

• In one line: China’s producer prices continued improvement, ahead of the oil price surge 

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 9 March 2026: Consumer inflation gets holiday bump

In one line: Consumer inflation gets holiday bump; Producer inflation continued to improve, ahead of oil price surge

UK Datanote: Construction PMI, February 2026

• In one line: Wet weather weighs on the Construction PMI in February, and sentiment will continue to remain weak in 2026.

UK Datanote: UK Car Registrations, February 2026

• In one line: Car registrations will continue to rise over the course of 2026.

PM Datanote: US Retail Sales, January 2026

The underlying trend in core sales still is slowing.

PM Datanote: US Employment, February 2026

What stabilization?.

Global Datanote: Inflation, Chile, February, 2026

• In one line: Inflation surprised to the downside, but upside risks are emerging.

PM Datanote: Inflation, Chile, February, 2026

• In one line: Inflation surprised to the downside, reinforcing Chile’s disinflation trend.

PM Datanote: Industrial Production, Brazil, January, 2026

• In one line: Output rebounded in January, but the broader industrial trend remains fragile.