Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)
In one line: Unwelcome rise in services selling price expectations.
In one line: Steady, and solid, growth in EZ money supply.
In one line: Stung by crash in net trade.
EZ ECONOMY SLOWS AS TARIFF HIKES START TO BITE…
- …BUT OUR CALL FOR A SEPTEMBER RATE CUT IS NOW ON LIFE SUPPORT
- The acceleration in money supply growth has faded, but it still signals solid underlying GDP growth.
- Surveyed EC selling price expectations rose in services but fell further in food.
- The Swiss economy came down to Earth in Q2 amid wild swings in net trade and inventories.
- GfK consumer confidence in Germany sank in September, but income expectations still look fine.
- All eyes on core inflation in France and Spain for signs of a downside surprise for the EZ print.
- Unemployment in Germany likely rose in August, but the IAB survey points to better times ahead.
In one line: Grim, and little scope for near-term improvement.
- Our call for a September rate cut is hanging on by the skin of its teeth; can the August HICP save it?
- We doubt ECB doves will be able to push through easing in Q4 if the Bank stands pat next month.
- The game of chicken in French politics continues, with Mr. Bayrou’s government on the brink.
- German GDP fell by more than initially estimated in Q2, stung by falling investment and net trade.
- We still see inventories weighing on growth in H2, but a fall in imports is an upside risk for net trade.
- Look through the noise in EZ wage growth data for a trend of 2.5-to-3.0% year-over-year.
- EZ PPI inflation, ex-services, is stabilising just below 1%, but divergence among sectors is high.
- The trend in global energy prices points to continued deflation in EZ energy producer prices…
- …But food producer price inflation is sticky, signalling upside risk to consumer prices in this category.
- The shape of the Phillips curve is unstable over time, but its shifts are difficult to pin down with data.
- Data point to a flat PC in the EZ, and a high sacrifice ratio for the ECB, but only for demand-pull inflation.
- Our estimates of the NKPC support our broader call that EZ inflation will ultimately settle above 2%.
- National data for Q2 suggest a rise in EZ negotiated wage growth after a plunge in Q1.
- Early data for Q3 are mixed, but stable inflation points to wage growth holding broadly steady ahead.
- Falling Irish and German industrial production mean EZ industry had a difficult end to Q2.
In one line: Industrial output will be revised up; net trade was a drag on GDP growth in Q2.
- Industrial production in Germany plunged in June, or did it? We are not so sure.
- Green shoots in leading indicators for German capex, but an inventory overhang still looms in H2.
- German exports remain stuck in the mud, and US tariffs add further downside risk in H2.
In one line: No boost from Airbus orders?
- Italian industrial output edged up in June, while German turnover figures point to a rise there too.
- EZ industry fared well in Q2, a further correction in Irish production permitting.
- EZ retail sales recorded a decent June and suggest goods spending supported GDP in Q2.
In one line: Soaring as transport and refineries kick into gear
- The EZ PMI was revised down, largely due to a downward revision to France’s already-weak index.
- Spain’s and Italy’s composite PMIs are much higher than those of France and Germany.
- French industrial production soared in June, but mainly on the back of a one-off in transport.
In one line: A blow for ECB doves and September rate cut hopes.
