Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Corporates in Q1 took on the largest amount of debt since the pandemic; Q2 looks set to be similar...
- ...But this is partly financing AI capex, which will weigh on employment; households are still not borrowing.
- The manufacturing revival is running out of steam; firms will run down inventory now the Strait is open.
- Food and regulated prices lifted Argentina’s inflation, but underlying pressures continue to ease gradually.
- Lower sovereign spreads and reserve accumulation reflect improving confidence in fiscal sustainability.
- Stable ARS demand and restrictive financial conditions should support further disinflation ahead
- The improved outlook for global oil prices is unlikely to benefit Indian consumers immediately, if at all.
- WPI will almost certainly peak soon, however; we see a lower 2026 average of 6.5% and 2027 of 0.9%.
- The mean reversion up in food inflation will pause briefly, but upside risks, especially for 2027, prevail.
- The BoJ could raise the policy rate at today’s meeting, going by a news report and less war uncertainty.
- China’s PPI rebound is a cost-push story; reflation pace is likely to ease a tad as a peace deal is struck.
- Given positive changes in both consumer and producer prices so far, Q2’s GDP deflator might now be positive.
- A July hike from the ECB is now a long shot, but markets still see one more hike this year.
- Oil futures are still pricing in a 20% uplift to oil prices over the next 12 months compared to before the war.
- The June survey should have a spring in its step if the US-Iran peace deal survives the next few weeks.
- We remove our call for a hike in July, looking for Bank Rate to stay on hold through 2026 and 2027.
- The US-Iran deal means we now expect inflation to peak at 3.4%, down from 3.6% before.
- Gilt yields have scope to rise another 7-to-14bp if Mr. Burnham wins this week’s by-election.
- In one line: Inflation expectations show waning faith in the MPC’s ability to hit 2% inflation.
- In one line: Consumer spending growth has slowed only a little since the Iran war started.
- In one line: Political drama likely weighed on the RICS in May, but underlying activity remains weak.
- In one line: GDP still on track to grow 0.2% quarter-to-quarter in Q2, despite unwinding fuel hoarding and a doctor's strike cutting output in April.
- In one line: High energy costs begin to feed through to core import price inflation.
- In one line: Mean-reversion up in food inflation should now start to plateau.
- In one line: Mean-reversion up in food inflation should now start to plateau.
Malaysian spending feels the impact of the Middle East shock
- In one line: Food and utilities keep inflation elevated.
- In one line: Food and utilities keep inflation elevated.
- In one line: Inflation improves, but the balance of risks remains hawkish.
- In one line: Inflation improves, but the balance of risks remains hawkish.
- May PPI data showed building upstream goods price pressures and a pick-up in underlying services prices.
- Core PCE inflation likely rose 3.4%, from 3.3% in April, it now looks set to take until January to return to 3.0%...
- ...So we are pushing our forecast for when the FOMC will resume easing policy to March, from December.
- Food and electricity prices pushed inflation higher in Brazil, limiting room for further monetary easing…
- …Inflation expectations are still rising, as weather and geopolitical risks threaten further inflation pressures.
- Softer inflation supports a rate pause in Peru, but risks increasingly point away from further easing.
