Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)
- A jump in German manufacturing points to upside risk to Q4 GDP, but we still see a modest 0.2% rise.
- We’re lifting our Q4 growth forecast in France, by 0.2pp to 0.1%, due to strength in our nowcast model.
- Evidence of robust Q4 GDP in France and Germany will be reassuring news for the ECB.
In one line: Modestly hawkish as selling prices rise and unemployment dips.
In one line: Still high, but not a decisive hawkish signal for the ECB
In one line: Sizzling, but at odds with weakening surveys.
- Swiss CPI in December eliminates the risk of deflation, as well as questions about negative rates.
- German factory orders rose strongly midway through Q4, but surveys signal downside risks.
- Falling unemployment and rising selling prices in the ESI tilt hawkish after dovish December inflation data.
In one line: The ECB’s December forecasts now look too hawkish.
- In one line: The ECB’s December forecasts now look too hawkish.
In one line: A modest improvement in EZ construction; no change in Germany’s labour market.
In one line: Poor, but still consistent with slightly better growth in Q4.
- EZ inflation shifted dovishly in December, setting up a bigger drop in Q1 than the ECB expected…
- …The ECB prefers to sit out near-term volatility in inflation; that preference will be tested in Q1.
- German retail sales growth likely improved slightly over Q4, despite the fall in November.
In one line: Still very dovish.
- Risks have swung to a downside surprise in today’s EZ HICP, and the ECB’s forecasts being too hawkish.
- Markets are currently pricing in almost no chance of a further rate cut in H1; that will change soon.
- The EZ PMI is holding on for a gain over Q4, but the direction of travel across the quarter is downward.
- We look for an upside surprise in this week’s EZ December inflation data, but all eyes are now on Q1.
- Switzerland likely fell into deflation in December, but the SNB remains poised to hold rates steady in Q1.
- We think EZ retail sales beat the consensus in November, but manufacturing likely weakened.
In one line: Dire straits in manufacturing, but big improvement in services.
- The hawkish shift in the ECB’s December forecasts has increased the risk of easing in early 2026.
- Growth in Spain was revised down slightly, with inflation staying sticky at the end of 2025.
- EZ M1 growth is stabilising at a modest pace, while manufacturing PMIs signal downside risk to industry.
- EZ inflation and GDP growth have both come in above the ECB’s September estimates lately.
- The ECB is set to revise up its forecasts but keep rates and other policy settings unchanged this week.
- Chances of additional rate cuts are retreating; the ECB easing cycle is over.
- EZ GDP growth picked up more than previously thought in Q3, far surpassing the ECB’s call, 0%.
- We reiterate our forecast for GDP to rise by 0.2% in Q4, given our estimates for the big four.
- GDP growth will pick up in H1 next year, but probably by less than we previously thought.
In one line: Too hot for a December cut, but dovish data in food and core goods.
- EZ inflation surprised slightly to the upside in November, matching our forecast.
- Energy inflation is being lifted by widening refining margins but is still low, and set to plunge in January.
- Core goods inflation is likely stabilising at just over 0.5%, with services set to drift lower into 2026.
