Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

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Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production & Trade Balance, Germany, March 2025

In one line: Soaring; Q1 GDP growth on track for an upward revision.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, March 2025

In one line: Sizzling.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 May 2025 Eurozone Monitor Swiss inflation falls to zero; SNB will cut its key policy rate below 0%

Swiss inflation fell to a lower-than-expected zero in April, with a knock-on effect on our forecasts…
...We now see deflation until mid-2026; the SNB will cut its policy rate below zero in June in response.
We look for a 50bp rate cut at the next meeting, taking the key policy rate to -0.25%.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: State CPIs & Unemployment, Germany, April/March 2025

In one line: Germany CPI looks softer than we anticipated, but core inflation rose.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Italy & Germany, Q1 2025

In one line: Supporting our above-consensus EZ call.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, France, April 2025

In one line: HICP coming in hot.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, March 2025

In one line: Growth slowed in Q1 after a strong H2-24.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, France, Q1 2025

In one line: Barely growing, and trade uncertainty could well keep it that way in 2025.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 May 2025 Eurozone Monitor Eurozone in rude health on the eve of the tariff shock

The Eurozone economy was stronger in the first quarter than both we and the ECB expected.
The pick-up in growth will prove short-lived, as trade uncertainty bites down on investment.
Country data point to EZ inflation at 2.1% in April; we still see a chunky upside surprise in the core.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Money Supply & ECB Inflation Expectations, March 2025

In one line: EZ inflation expectations jumped on the eve of the tariff shock.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Confidence, Germany, May 2025

In one line: What tariff shock?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 April 2025 Eurozone Monitor Spanish GDP growth has further to slow after easing in Q1

Spanish growth slowed in Q1 but still comfortably outperformed growth in the rest of the big four.
The SNB is easing policy without cutting rates, signalling a desire to steer clear of negative rates.
Money and credit data remain positive on outlook for the EZ economy but tariffs still threaten.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

April 2025 - EZ Economic Chartbook

UNCERTAINTY OVER GLOBAL TRADE WILL WEIGH ON GROWTH...

...A SHORT TECHNICAL RECESSION IN H2 IS NOW OUR BASELINE

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 April 2025 Eurozone Monitor Where are the Eurozone's key asset prices heading this year?

Market expectations for the ECB’s deposit rate to stay below 2.0% next year are a sitting duck.
Bunds are fairly valued at 2.5%; fiscal policy poses upside risk, but trade wars pull in the other direction.
EURUSD is overshooting our models; EZ equities are set to struggle for a while longer.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Confidence, France, April

In one line: French industry intends to make hay while the sun is still shining.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 April 2025 Eurozone Monitor Robust inflation and growth data to lift EZ bond yields this week

Our forecasts for Q1 GDP and the April HICP imply upside risk for ECB rate expectations this week.
Robust national business surveys point to upside risk to our Q2 forecasts for GDP in Germany and France.
Tariff front-running seems to be just what the doctor ordered for manufacturing in France.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone