Pantheon Publications

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production & Trade Balance, Germany, December 2025

In one line: Production stung by falling auto output, but still managed a decent Q4. 

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, France, December 2025

In one line: Stung by a plunge in aerospace output. 

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, December 2025

In one line: Momentum is building, but running well ahead of the survey data.

6 February 2026 Eurozone Monitor ECB sets out the--unlikely, in our view--conditions for a rate cut

• Ms. Lagarde hinted at a rate cut if March forecasts fall below September’s baseline; we doubt they will… 
• …The threshold for the ECB to take evasive action in March due to EURUSD is high, likely around 1.25. 
• German factory orders soared by almost 10% in Q4, but survey data signal downside risk in Q1.

5 February 2026 Eurozone Monitor EZ inflation falls to 1.7% in January, and will stay there in February

• EZ inflation dropped below 2% in January, and is set to remain at that level in February.
• The dovish pressure on the ECB will increase into the March meeting, but likely not enough for a cut. 
• A downgrade to the ECB’s near-term core inflation forecast is the main dovish risk for policymakers. 

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, France, January 2026

In one line: A last dovish hurrah, probably. 

4 February 2026 Eurozone Monitor More dovish French inflation data; Swiss inflation likely stable in Jan

• Soft French inflation data point to the EZ HICP conforming to the consensus today. 
• We still see higher domestic inflation offsetting disinflationary currency strength in Switzerland…
• …Swiss headline inflation was likely stable in January, at 0.1%; will the SNB intervene to push down CHF? 

3 February 2026 Eurozone Monitor No change from the ECB this week amid mixed data

• The ECB will hold rates steady this week, amid data to suit both hawkish and dovish policymakers. 
• German retail sales rose by 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q4, reversing weakness in Q3. 
• The Swiss PMIs point to a rebound in growth in early 2026, matching our forecasts. 

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, December 2025

In one line: Decent Q4, with revisions now signalling strong growth in 2025.

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Q4-25, France

In one line: Solid trend in domestic demand, ex-inventories.

2 February 2026 Eurozone Monitor Super Friday in the Eurozone less dovish than we expected

• We now look for EZ headline inflation at 1.8% in January, with the core rate unchanged at 2.3%.
• Energy and services inflation fell in Germany but were overpowered by rising goods and food inflation.
• The EZ economy shrugged off tariff whiplash last year, ending 2025 on a high.

EZ Datanote: Money Supply, Eurozone, December 2025

In one line: Easing M1 growth offset by falling inflation, for now. 

January 2026- EZ Economic Chartbook

DOVISH INFLATION DATA SET UP A NERVY Q1 FOR THE ECB...

1. …BUT THE BAR FOR FURTHER EASING REMAINS HIGH