Pantheon Publications

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production and Trade, Eurozone, November 2025

In one line: Upside risks building for Q4 GDP growth. 

16 January 2026 Eurozone Monitor Revising up our EZ GDP growth forecast for Q4, to 0.3%

• GDP growth looks set to beat the MPC’s forecast in Q4 2025, after November’s 0.3% gain.
• The recovery in autos manufacturing has little further to run, but underlying activity looks solid to us.
• Construction output is falling rapidly, closing the gap on the PMI and representing a downside risk to GDP.

15 January 2026 Eurozone Monitor EZ house price growth accelerated in 2025; will 2026 be better?

• EZ house prices are rising strongly, but they’re driven by positive outliers in the smaller economies. 
• Our model suggests that EZ house price growth will cool this year, to around 3% year-over-year. 
• Rising house prices boost household net worth, which is now an upside risk for consumption growth.

13 January 2026 Eurozone Monitor With friends like this...; how can the EU react as Trump eyes Greenland?

• US Greenland ambitions will accelerate EU defence spending and raise the risk of an EU-US trade war. 
• The EU economic ‘bazooka’ would likely be unholstered if the US moves to take over Greenland. 
• An intra-NATO shooting match is highly unlikely, but tensions will ratchet up before a resolution is found.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production & Consumers' Spending, France, November 2025

In one line: Industry slowed sharply in Q4, but goods spending likely accelerated.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production & Trade, Germany, November 2025

In one line: Strong manufacturing, but plunging exports. 

12 January 2026 Eurozone Monitor Data point to relative resilience in France and Germany in Q4

• A jump in German manufacturing points to upside risk to Q4 GDP, but we still see a modest 0.2% rise.
• We’re lifting our Q4 growth forecast in France, by 0.2pp to 0.1%, due to strength in our nowcast model.
• Evidence of robust Q4 GDP in France and Germany will be reassuring news for the ECB.

EZ Datanote: ESI and Unemployment, Eurozone, Dec/Nov 2025

In one line: Modestly hawkish as selling prices rise and unemployment dips.

EZ Datanote: ECB Consumer Expectations Survey, November 2025

In one line: Still high, but not a decisive hawkish signal for the ECB

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, November 2025

In one line: Sizzling, but at odds with weakening surveys.

9 January 2026 Eurozone Monitor Deflation no longer on the cards in Switzerland, nor negative rates

• Swiss CPI in December eliminates the risk of deflation, as well as questions about negative rates. 
• German factory orders rose strongly midway through Q4, but surveys signal downside risks. 
• Falling unemployment and rising selling prices in the ESI tilt hawkish after dovish December inflation data.

EZ Datanote: EZ Construction PMIs & German Unemployment, December 2025

In one line: A modest improvement in EZ construction; no change in Germany’s labour market.   

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, December 2025

In one line: Dovish!

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, November 2025

In one line: Poor, but still consistent with slightly better growth in Q4.