Pantheon Publications

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 27 March 2026

Two-way trade in the Philippines was picking up steam before the war

March 2026 - Emerging Asia Chartbook

CPI FORECASTS UP ACROSS THE BOARD IN EM ASIA

• …BUT FROM LOW STARTING POINTS; ONLY SBV SET TO HIKE

PM Datanote: Inflation IPCA-15, Brazil, March, 2026

• In one line: Disinflation remains intact, but the oil shock has materially increased upside risk.

EZ Datanote: ISTAT Business Confidence, Italy, March 2026

In one line: Households already rattled by energy shock; industry yet to report feeling jittery.  

EZ Datanote: Money Supply, Eurozone, February 2026

In one line: Solid, before inflation saps real M1 growth. 

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business & Consumer Confidence, France, March 2026

In one line: Relatively stable, but consistent with downside risk to growth. 

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Confidence, Germany, April 2026

In one line: Stung by sharp declines in income, and overall, expectations. 

March 2026 - China+ Chartbook

CHINA+ OUTLOOK
- CHINA RELATIVELY INSULATED FROM OIL-PRICE SPIKE
- BOJ WOULD HIKE EARLY IN A $150/BL OIL SCENARIO
- KOREA'S CHIP EXPORT RISE OFFSETS OIL IMPORT BILL

27 March 2026 US Monitor Low initial claims provide limited comfort when hiring is so weak

• Low claims reflect few layoffs, but hiring is still too weak to absorb fully modest growth in labor supply.
• March business surveys point to Q1 GDP growth of about 2% in Q1...
• ...But the jump in oil prices has triggered a surge in inventory building, supporting demand only briefly.

27 March 2026 LatAm Monitor BCCh shifts to risk management as oil dictates the outlook

• The oil-driven inflation shock is delaying easing in Chile, and even raising the probability of tightening.
• The growth outlook has weakened as tighter financial conditions and fiscal restraint bite.
• Policy is on hold for now, but risks have tilted clearly to the hawkish side in Chile and the region as a whole.

27 March 2026 Eurozone Monitor Soft survey data for March no match for a hawkish rate outlook

• March survey data show clear evidence of weakness from the war in Iran, but markets don’t care.
• Real M1 growth was still robust midway through Q1, but now comes the hit from rising inflation.
• Italian business confidence was resilient in March, but consumer sentiment is plunging.

27 March 2026 UK Monitor High neutral rate means the MPC must tread carefully

• Guarded language from the MPC suggests some pushback against market pricing of three hikes in 2026.
• But rate-setters must be wary, given de-anchored inflation expectations and low trust in the central bank.
• The Spring Statement outlines high levels of issuance, which will continue to push up the neutral rate.

Global Datanote: BCCh Rate Decision, Chile, March, 2026

• In one line: BCCh Rate Decision, Chile, March, 2026

PM Datanote: BCCh Rate Decision, Chile, March, 2026

• In one line: Rates on hold, policy turns cautious after Middle East oil shock.

EZ Datanote: IFO Business Climate Indicator, Germany, March 2026

In one line: Achtung!

PM Datanote: US S&P Global Composite PMI, March 2026

Energy shock adding to the headwinds for growth and employment.

Global Datanote: Bi-weekly CPI and EAI, Mexico, March/January, 2026

• In one line: Inflation surprised to the upside, while activity weakened sharply at the start of the year.

PM Datanote: Bi-weekly CPI and Economic activity index, Mexico, March/January, 2026

• In one line: Inflation surprised to the upside, while activity weakened sharply at the start of the year.

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Taiwan, February

• In one line: Q1 consumption remains firm.

EM Asia Datanote: Customs Trade, Thailand, February 2026

• In one line: Fundamental downward pressure on the THB is building rapidly.