Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Daily Monitor Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)
- US Greenland ambitions will accelerate EU defence spending and raise the risk of an EU-US trade war.
- The EU economic ‘bazooka’ would likely be unholstered if the US moves to take over Greenland.
- An intra-NATO shooting match is highly unlikely, but tensions will ratchet up before a resolution is found.
- Swiss CPI in December eliminates the risk of deflation, as well as questions about negative rates.
- German factory orders rose strongly midway through Q4, but surveys signal downside risks.
- Falling unemployment and rising selling prices in the ESI tilt hawkish after dovish December inflation data.
- EZ inflation shifted dovishly in December, setting up a bigger drop in Q1 than the ECB expected…
- …The ECB prefers to sit out near-term volatility in inflation; that preference will be tested in Q1.
- German retail sales growth likely improved slightly over Q4, despite the fall in November.
- Risks have swung to a downside surprise in today’s EZ HICP, and the ECB’s forecasts being too hawkish.
- Markets are currently pricing in almost no chance of a further rate cut in H1; that will change soon.
- The EZ PMI is holding on for a gain over Q4, but the direction of travel across the quarter is downward.
- We look for an upside surprise in this week’s EZ December inflation data, but all eyes are now on Q1.
- Switzerland likely fell into deflation in December, but the SNB remains poised to hold rates steady in Q1.
- We think EZ retail sales beat the consensus in November, but manufacturing likely weakened.
- EZ inflation surprised slightly to the upside in November, matching our forecast.
- Energy inflation is being lifted by widening refining margins but is still low, and set to plunge in January.
- Core goods inflation is likely stabilising at just over 0.5%, with services set to drift lower into 2026.
- German Q3 growth was hit by falling consumption, but the spending details are better than the headline.
- Investment in Germany is stabilising, but we’re yet to see evidence of the much hoped-for recovery.
- Jump in government spending was mainly due to welfare spending, but borrowing is rising fast.
- We think this week’s inflation data for November will continue to signal Eurozone inflation above 2% in Q4.
- The acceleration in money supply growth is easing, but it still indicates decent GDP growth.
- Early Q4 spending data are mixed: we see strength in France and Spain, softness in Germany.
- The EZ current account surplus rose marginally in September; a strong euro will bring it down in 2026.
- Foreign investors have moved away from EZ debt and piled into EZ equities over the past year.
- EZ construction output was flat in Q3, after declining in the previous quarter; Q4 will likely be a little better.
- EZ inflation edged down in October, but we still see a near-term rebound to 2.2%, before a fall in January.
- Refining margins are rising, boosting energy inflation, but the trend is still dovish overall.
- Core inflation is set for a small further rise in the near term, before a steady decline over H1 2026.
- Germany’s government will use fiscal policy to lower prices for consumers and firms next year.
- A subsidy to lower electricity prices for energy- intensive industry should lift output in early 2026.
- Germany is set to spend 0.3-to-0.4% of GDP on lower energy prices for consumers and firms.
- The ECB is lining up a change in key personnel, but the key transitions are back-loaded to 2027.
- Isabel Schnabel’s departure will almost certainly result in a dovish tilt to the ECB’s communication.
- Investor sentiment has fallen marginally in November but still signals a solid composite PMI.
- A Q4 supply crunch in EZ auto production is averted, but the Nexperia controversy could flare up again.
- EZ auto production fell sharply in Q3, but leading indicators are improving in Germany.
- Auto sales in the EZ slowed in Q3, and leading indicators point to continued sluggish growth in Q4.
- EZ retail spending growth slowed to 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, from 0.8% in Q2….
- ....but overall consumption growth likely was decent, and we look for more of the same in Q4.
- Rebound in German manufacturing was tepid in September, but output likely rose again in October.
- German factory orders rebounded in September, but the underlying trend in growth is still flat.
- Sales data signal downside risk to German industrial output, but they failed to capture the August plunge.
- Manufacturing in France is soaring, helped by aerospace, but surveys warn of a fall in early Q4.
- We’re changing our inflation forecast methodology to a pure bottom-up model, based on the four majors.
- We will now be forecasting 38 individual HICP and CPI components every month.
- Our forecast for core inflation to settle above 2% is underpinned by dovish monthly pricing trends.
- The ECB took a breather in Florence; no change in policy and little in the way of guidance.
- Inflation in Spain and Germany, and our forecasts for Italy and France, signal EZ inflation at 2.2% today.
- EZ GDP rose by 0.2% quarter-to-quarter in Q3, breezing past the ECB’s September forecast.
- Inflation data clearly suggest the ECB is now on hold, but other data have tilted dovishly recently.
- A delay to the implementation of ETS2 could be exactly what ECB doves need for a rate cut in Q4…
- …But our forecasts still imply that the Bank will need to lift its core inflation outlook, precluding a cut.
- Germany’s 2026 draft budget promises borrowing of close to 5% of GDP next year; can we believe it?
- A turn in the investment cycle is the key prerequisite for a pick-up in German growth next year.
- Risks are tilted to the downside for our upbeat 2026 forecasts, but leading indicators agree with us.
- Spain’s budget negotiations are non-existent; another rollover of the 2023 budget seems likely...
- ...Still, its deficit will shrink out to 2027, and in 2025 be inside the EU’s 3% limit.
- ECB doves point to downside inflation risks, but we still think the Q4 HICP data will move against them.
